2018 NBA Draft pt 2 - NOW WITH A POLL

[Badgerlander]

kevin Huerter sounds intriguing. I really miss the DX strengths and weaknesses videos.

https://thefrontofficeeye.com/2018/05/22/kevin-huerter-scouting-report/

[MVP2110]

At first I really hated Melton but he has grown on me. Lockdown defender, good passer, excellent rebounder for a guard. I'd put him easily in my top 4 atm.

My top 4 is pretty separated from the rest

Okobo
Melton
Okogie
Bates-Diop

With Huerter & Troy Brown just missing the cut. Mitchell Robinson also intruiges me quite a bit.

I've really cooled on Khyri Thomas, Brunson, & Divencenzo.

Still don't really like Zhaire or Holiday either

[leroyjw10]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

[BucksFanSD]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting.

...and rebounding. I definitely want to come out of this draft with a rebounder and/or shooter. We probably should be trading down and acquiring both. This draft has both into the 2nd round.

[SupremeHustle]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

I have Huerter and Okobo so far, but if Kevin Knox is there I'd take him over anybody in that poll.

[MVP2110]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

Realistically there will only be a few players that actually contribute from 17 on. So for me it's less about fit and more about trying to figure out who will actually be good. We can always trade or sign free agents to fit what we need in the future

[Rockmaninoff]

Saw something the other day that Young took 1/3 of his 3s from 30 feet.

I kind of see Young as a new age AI without the cultural significance. His shot chart is nuts.

I'd be really surprised if Weltman and Hammond pass on him.

Would AI be viewed as effective in this era? I had a hard enough time acknowledging it in the previous one.

He doesn't really seem like Hambone's type. He drafted Jennings. But he wasn't short (limbed) and unathletic.

My mind thinks of Young as ball dominant, small, inefficient, but also tough, tenacious, and really pretty skilled. That's kind of how I thought of AI. Any team with either as their best player probably has limited potential, but I think Young with Giannis would be pretty wild.

Orlando really has no star offensive players, and they have a ton of defensive/finisher types that could compliment Young. While Young may not fit Hammond's mold, I think as an organization they need someone that will generate buzz, and would likely weight that heavily.

[Rockmaninoff]

If AI played like Nash and vice versa, would they both have been twice as good?

Yes and yes.

[Badgerlander]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

Jaylen Brown shot 30/102 29.4% from 3pt in his only year at Cali, shot 121/306 39.5 % this year his second in the nba

Jason Tatum shot 40/117 34.2% at Duke, 105/242 43.4% this year
OG Anunoby 14/45 31.1% at Indy (injured), 73/197 37.1% Raptors
Kuzma 27/84 32.1%, 159/434 36.6% Lakerz

Dennis Smith 55/153 35.9%, 106/339 31.3% Dallas
Donovan Mitchell 80/226 35.4%, 187/550 34.0% Utah

Lonzo Ball 80/194 41.2%, 90/295 30.5% (ok EVERYONE saw that coming but still lol)
Ntilikina 22/51 43.1%, 50/157 31.8% Knicks
Monk 104/262 39.7%, 83/243 34.2% Hornets
Justin Jackson 105/284 37%, 57/185 30.8% Kings
Terrance Fergusion only shot 21/67 31.3% but was touted as a 3+D prospect and well liked on the board, 40/120 33.3% OKC
Ojeleye 73/172 42.4%, 40/125 32.0% Celtics
Sterling Brown 61/136 44.9%, 32/91 35.2%

So Markkanen, Kennard, and Josh Hart shot to expectations in last years draft

[SupremeHustle]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

Jaylen Brown shot 30/102 29.4% from 3pt in his only year at Cali, shot 121/306 39.5 % this year his second in the nba

Jason Tatum shot 40/117 34.2% at Duke, 105/242 43.4% this year
OG Anunoby 14/45 31.1% at Indy (injured), 73/197 37.1% Raptors
Kuzma 27/84 32.1%, 159/434 36.6% Lakerz

Dennis Smith 55/153 35.9%, 106/339 31.3% Dallas
Donovan Mitchell 80/226 35.4%, 187/550 34.0% Utah

Lonzo Ball 80/194 41.2%, 90/295 30.5% (ok EVERYONE saw that coming but still lol)
Ntilikina 22/51 43.1%, 50/157 31.8% Knicks
Monk 104/262 39.7%, 83/243 34.2% Hornets
Justin Jackson 105/284 37%, 57/185 30.8% Kings
Terrance Fergusion only shot 21/67 31.3% but was touted as a 3+D prospect and well liked on the board, 40/120 33.3% OKC
Ojeleye 73/172 42.4%, 40/125 32.0% Celtics
Sterling Brown 61/136 44.9%, 32/91 35.2%

So Markkanen, Kennard, and Josh Hart shot to expectations in last years draft

Good stuff.

[Bernman]

My mind thinks of Young as ball dominant, small, inefficient, but also tough, tenacious, and really pretty skilled. That's kind of how I thought of AI. Any team with either as their best player probably has limited potential, but I think Young with Giannis would be pretty wild.

Orlando really has no star offensive players, and they have a ton of defensive/finisher types that could compliment Young. While Young may not fit Hammond's mold, I think as an organization they need someone that will generate buzz, and would likely weight that heavily.

I don't think we know if someone else in that mold but probably on a higher tier, Kyrie Irving, helps a team win in the 2010's. But teams were eventually able to win with him.

You could be right that if drafting Young serves anyone well it's Orlando with their complementary roster construction. Bucks already have some more efficient firepower than him, and have not proven to be defensive juggernauts. Think it'd be wild, but not in a good way. Either I think the Bucks should add off ball shooters to open up the lane for Giannis or another beast creator who can shoot semi efficiently at least and hold his own defensively. I don't think that's what Young is, but I could be wrong.

[M-C-G]

kevin Huerter sounds intriguing. I really miss the DX strengths and weaknesses videos.

https://thefrontofficeeye.com/2018/05/22/kevin-huerter-scouting-report/

Nice find. I can really see him being the pick if Bud is looking for a Korver type. Adding a guy like this and Jabari and Middleoton focusing some more on the three this year, along with team movement could make this a really exciting offense.

A Brogdon, Huerter, Middleton, Parker, Giannis line up could be really damn fun to watch.

[Rockmaninoff]

Really wish we had 10 & 17.

How far up would Brogdon+Thon+17 take us?

[Zeezprah]

Agree on Knox as well. Wish he was elite in one skill though.

[leroyjw10]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

Jaylen Brown shot 30/102 29.4% from 3pt in his only year at Cali, shot 121/306 39.5 % this year his second in the nba

Jason Tatum shot 40/117 34.2% at Duke, 105/242 43.4% this year
OG Anunoby 14/45 31.1% at Indy (injured), 73/197 37.1% Raptors
Kuzma 27/84 32.1%, 159/434 36.6% Lakerz

Dennis Smith 55/153 35.9%, 106/339 31.3% Dallas
Donovan Mitchell 80/226 35.4%, 187/550 34.0% Utah

Lonzo Ball 80/194 41.2%, 90/295 30.5% (ok EVERYONE saw that coming but still lol)
Ntilikina 22/51 43.1%, 50/157 31.8% Knicks
Monk 104/262 39.7%, 83/243 34.2% Hornets
Justin Jackson 105/284 37%, 57/185 30.8% Kings
Terrance Fergusion only shot 21/67 31.3% but was touted as a 3+D prospect and well liked on the board, 40/120 33.3% OKC
Ojeleye 73/172 42.4%, 40/125 32.0% Celtics
Sterling Brown 61/136 44.9%, 32/91 35.2%

So Markkanen, Kennard, and Josh Hart shot to expectations in last years draft

No doubt there are exceptions to every rule, but I'd bet there are a lot more players who enter the NBA as poor shooters and remain (or leave) poor/below average shooters. Just recently, Josh Jackson, DeAaron Fox, Jonathan Isaac, Justin Jackson, Ben Simmons, Kris Dunn, DeAndre Bembry, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justice Winslow, Jerian Grant, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Justin Anderson all had questions around their shooting that remain to this day.

My point is that I'd much rather spend a pick on a guy who has proven he can shoot at a high level. Too risky otherwise. There are a lot of guys (Frazier, Okobo, Evans, Huerter, Hutchinson, Diop, Holiday, Thomas) likely available at 17 who have shot at at least an average rate that I'd rather draft. Shooting should be a top priority.

[M-C-G]

Badger, what does your short list look like of guys that should be available around our pick?

[Bernman]

No doubt there are exceptions to every rule, but I'd bet there are a lot more players who enter the NBA as poor shooters and remain (or leave) poor/below average shooters. Just recently, Josh Jackson, DeAaron Fox, Jonathan Isaac, Justin Jackson, Ben Simmons, Kris Dunn, DeAndre Bembry, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justice Winslow, Jerian Grant, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Justin Anderson all had questions around their shooting that remain to this day.

My point is that I'd much rather spend a pick on a guy who has proven he can shoot at a high level. Too risky otherwise. There are a lot of guys (Frazier, Okobo, Evans, Huerter, Hutchinson, Diop, Holiday, Thomas) likely available at 17 who have shot at at least an average rate that I'd rather draft. Shooting should be a top priority.

There are too many counter-examples to where you can't really call them exceptions. It's a mixed bag. Shooting is something most players can develop with form, repetition, and not changing their muscle memory too severely. You have to project based on those factors. Otherwise you'll miss out on some of the best players in the NBA, like LeBron.

First year LeBron came out shooting 29% from 3. But he was very young, had good form, and work ethic. So I'm not going to dismiss Troy Brown just on that basis when he's shooting similarly, is very young, has good form, and work ethic. I agree that it's a bit of a risk. But IMO there's a far greater chance he grows into an impact player than a Huerter you almost solely are drafting for the shooting. He'd need to be an elite shooter, and then there's still what, 80 players in the NBA better than Korver or a lesser 3+d like Bowen. You can land these guys in the 2nd round. Like Brown last year, or Alkins this one.

[LuessiT]

I'm really surprised how many on this board are advocating for non-shooters. If there's one thing this team needs, it's shooting. And once they have that, they need to get more of it. For me, if there's a prospect at the 1-4 who shot less than 35% from the college 3, then they are a non-option at 17.

That eliminates Troy Brown, Kevin Knox, De'Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt and Zhaire Smith (I know he shot 45%, but he did it on 1 attempt per game with one of the ugliest forms I've seen). Success in the NBA relies too much on the 3-pointer to be drafting non-shooters.

Jaylen Brown shot 30/102 29.4% from 3pt in his only year at Cali, shot 121/306 39.5 % this year his second in the nba

Jason Tatum shot 40/117 34.2% at Duke, 105/242 43.4% this year
OG Anunoby 14/45 31.1% at Indy (injured), 73/197 37.1% Raptors
Kuzma 27/84 32.1%, 159/434 36.6% Lakerz

Dennis Smith 55/153 35.9%, 106/339 31.3% Dallas
Donovan Mitchell 80/226 35.4%, 187/550 34.0% Utah

Lonzo Ball 80/194 41.2%, 90/295 30.5% (ok EVERYONE saw that coming but still lol)
Ntilikina 22/51 43.1%, 50/157 31.8% Knicks
Monk 104/262 39.7%, 83/243 34.2% Hornets
Justin Jackson 105/284 37%, 57/185 30.8% Kings
Terrance Fergusion only shot 21/67 31.3% but was touted as a 3+D prospect and well liked on the board, 40/120 33.3% OKC
Ojeleye 73/172 42.4%, 40/125 32.0% Celtics
Sterling Brown 61/136 44.9%, 32/91 35.2%

So Markkanen, Kennard, and Josh Hart shot to expectations in last years draft

First off, thanks for that list. Really good stuff.

I think anyone could see Tatum becoming a great shooter. That it happened this fast, props to him though.
Kuzma's shot supposedly looked really good in pre draft workouts. The sheer amount of 3's he shot though was certainly unpredictable. Great numbers.
Ntilikina's sample size in France was rather small and he's been struggling a bit. His body still is growing so I would give him time. Has the mechanics to be an okay shooter with the capabilities to shoot off the dribble.
Monk's numbers are fine. Takes a lot of difficult 3's and doesn't play much. If you put the numbers into context I think he'll be elite.
Justin Jackson's mechanics were way overhyped before the draft. I'm not really surprised by his numbers. Will improve to league average probably.
Ferguson's hype regarding his jumper entirely came from HS. Pretty much no-one saw him play in Australia. His mechanics are fine and his FT% bode well for future improvement.

I think in general you have a pretty decent chance of projecting future shooting outcome. You're not always going to be accurate and some prospects take huge leaps but in general shooting is one of the more projectable abilities. That said, 3P% from college isn't the first thing I'd look at to measure shooting potential...

[Gam]

No doubt there are exceptions to every rule, but I'd bet there are a lot more players who enter the NBA as poor shooters and remain (or leave) poor/below average shooters. Just recently, Josh Jackson, DeAaron Fox, Jonathan Isaac, Justin Jackson, Ben Simmons, Kris Dunn, DeAndre Bembry, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justice Winslow, Jerian Grant, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Justin Anderson all had questions around their shooting that remain to this day.

My point is that I'd much rather spend a pick on a guy who has proven he can shoot at a high level. Too risky otherwise. There are a lot of guys (Frazier, Okobo, Evans, Huerter, Hutchinson, Diop, Holiday, Thomas) likely available at 17 who have shot at at least an average rate that I'd rather draft. Shooting should be a top priority.

There are too many counter-examples to where you can't really call them exceptions. It's a mixed bag. Shooting is something most players can develop with form, repetition, and not changing their muscle memory too severely. You have to project based on those factors. Otherwise you'll miss out on some of the best players in the NBA, like LeBron.

First year LeBron came out shooting 29% from 3. But he was very young, had good form, and work ethic. So I'm not going to dismiss Troy Brown just on that basis when he's shooting similarly, is very young, has good form, and work ethic. I agree that it's a bit of a risk. But IMO there's a far greater chance he grows into an impact player than a Huerter you almost solely are drafting for the shooting. He'd need to be an elite shooter, and then there's still what, 80 players in the NBA better than Korver or a lesser 3+d like Bowen. You can land these guys in the 2nd round. Like Brown last year, or Alkins this one.

What do you like about Brown other than being young and having a nice frame? He reminds me of a less athletic Evan Turner, and what I've heard from Oregon fans is that he's nothing special. He's one of the last wings I'd want that is projected around our range.

[RealBucksFan]

The problem with targeting shooters is that most young players are at best inconsistent shooters. And at the NCAA level, we are dealing with tiny sample sizes. Everybody is willing to write off a 35 game sample from Bledsoe as a fluke, but won't do same for an NCAA player, for better or worse.

So while shooting is very important, it can't be the only factor and you can't just look at percentages - volume and shot selection are often more important than raw percentage from three and FT% also can be looked at.