Ron Swanson wrote:That's literally the entire argument. We're a championship aspiring team picking in the 20's and decades worth of data tells you that it's pretty much a guarantee that no one you pick there is gonna contribute in any meaningful way as a rookie towards the goal of actually winning a championship. Now, if you wanna say that you'd trust Shannon or Baylor Scheierman more than AJ Johnson to give you 10-15 minutes of decent enough rotation production in the 2024-25 regular season, then sure. But thinking any late-1st rookie is gonna be an impact playoff dude 12-months after making the jump from college is a pipe dream. Like, Jaime Jacquez was terrible in the playoffs.
This is a next-level crap study because I just looked back at a couple champs, & Christian Braun contributed to the very last champion that actually made a 1st rd pick. lol
And I went back a ways - most 1st rd picks were traded by the champs that season: C's, Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Warriors ('18), etc.
The only other one in that span, besides Denver, who used their 1st(s) were the '21-'22 Warriors & they went extreme youth (Moody, Kuminga), which reinforces the point I was making if anything.
If you want to make the case it's more win now to trade the pick for a proven player, that's a truism. But to claim there's no such thing as a win now draft pick because the eventual champs didn't have (m)any, that's silly.