Trade Targets (postcript on yesterday-other teams)

[TroyD92]

Even the die hard Knight supporters know he's not a point guard.

[Giannis Parker]

Even the die hard Knight supporters know he's not a point guard.

Most die hard fans overall also know that the PG is a really over inflated word that in reality has little meaning.

I just did some research based on Warp and contracts to determine a value factor for some of the combo guards in the league compared to Knight. I typically do this at the halfway point of the season and at the end of the season to gauge in season progression, which is obviously based on many variables.

Current Warp:
Harden 11.88
Lillard 8.64
Westy 7.83
Irving 4.59
Knight 4.32
Ellis 2.7

Divide Warp by current contract for value factor:
Lillard 2.5
Knight 1.49
Irving .79
Harden .75
Westy .50
Ellis .323

Obviously Lillard and Knight are on their rookie deals, but you can easily calculate what their new numbers would be if you just assume a salary and divide their current warp by their assumed salary. Another key piece to note here is that Harden has Howard, Lillard has LMA, Westy has Durant, Irving has Love and James, Ellis has Dirk. This fact does sway a lot of A/To stats in those players favor. In the month of December, Knight was at 1.7 and this is when Parker was beginning to click. Through the Jabari injury Knight was at 1.65, and is currently at 1.58. A notable comp is Harden, who is at 1.68 for his A/To ratio.

Assuming Parker is a 18-20ppg guy with a 20-24ppg ceiling, that will lower Knights usage, which will help his A/To ratio. This in turn will improve several other advanced stats. I feel that a fair estimate of Knight if playing with a player such as LMA or Durant would be a 7 Warp per season. This would put him in the top 15-20 guards in the NBA, which I believe is a fair estimate based on talent. If you take this 7 warp and divide it by his estimated value contract wise of 12m annually you would have a value factor of around .58

How to make sense of value factor based on Warp. Most star players off of their rookie contracts will be around a .7 and almost every All-Star over the last 15 years has posted at least a .6 out of the players off of their rookie contracts. This means that Knight at his predicted warp and contract is a borderline All-Star which falls in line with many analysts thoughts of what he is ( A very solid 3rd option for any team in the league). If we pay Knight his max of what appears to be 16m annually, that skews the number to now become .44 which greatly lowers his value, this should be intuitive. The sweet spot to fall in line with the .6 All-Star average over the past 15 years would be an annual salary of around 11.67 per year.

All teams throughout the league use advanced projection stats and calculate them based on different salary intervals to determine a players value. What I have used over the past 15 years is very basic, but I would say it has held a 65-70% accuracy rating. The Bucks are not going to just pay Knight whatever Knight wants, LED is a very smart machine, and they will use every metric possible to have an exact point of what they will pay Knight. If they give Knight the max, that means their metrics suggest that Knight is better than even I think he is, and quite honestly, who am I to doubt the research of professionals who have found a way to get their net worth into the billions?

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

I have no insider knowledge, but c'mon people!!! Knight isn't going anywhere. The bucks are in man love with this kid. Stop using him in your trade ideas. Waste of your time!


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Kidd knows he isn't a PG

hopefully kidd has figured out giannis isn't a primary pg either. wtf that has to do with whether were high on a kid or not I don't know

[bigdog34]

I have no insider knowledge, but c'mon people!!! Knight isn't going anywhere. The bucks are in man love with this kid. Stop using him in your trade ideas. Waste of your time!


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Kidd knows he isn't a PG

hopefully kidd has figured out giannis isn't a primary pg either. wtf that has to do with whether were high on a kid or not I don't know

This.


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[Wisky4life]

We just need a PG that has a high assist/turnover ratio and can score in the paint. If Knight would show more willingness to pass the rock and gets higher assists like 6-7 a game, we are fine.

[ReasonablySober]

Lowe:

Brandon Knight has had a nice season, but he’s a notch below these guys at creating shots for teammates. Opponents have blitzed the Bucks with Knight on the floor; Milwaukee’s strong bench has been perhaps the most important ingredient in the team’s .500 record.

[randy84]

Banner 17 was not a result of tanking, it was a result of a rash of injuries and the trading of old washed up vets. They did not lose intentionally, .

2007 called....they want their year back then.

http://www.landofbasketball.com/results ... eltics.htm

2006-07 Boston Celtics
In 2007, with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant as the big lottery prizes, several teams were openly questioned about apparent tanking, including the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies, the three teams that ended up with the best chance of drafting Oden or Durant.

In one notorious game late in the season, the Celtics, playing at home, led the woeful Bobcats 69-51 late in the third quarter -- and managed to lose the game by eight points, enhancing their draft positioning. Of course, Celtics coach Doc Rivers denied tanking charges. As Steve Bulpett reported in the Boston Herald: “Rivers insisted there was nothing sinister about leaving Paul Pierce (game-high 23 points) on the bench for the fourth quarter and letting the quintet of Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Allan Ray and Leon Powe stay on the parquet as the lead -- still at 10 with nine minutes left in the game -- disappeared.”

In the final week of the season, the Celtics and Bucks, both maneuvering for the best possible draft position, played each other and gave DNPs to high scorers Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson, Wally Szczerbiak, Michael Redd and Mo Williams.

After the game, the Associated Press reported:
Ryan Gomes had 13 through three quarters, but watched from the bench in the fourth as Boston clinched the worst record in the Eastern Conference and second worst in the league.

"I probably (would have played), but since we were in the hunt for a high draft pick, of course things are different," Gomes said. "I understand that. Hopefully things get better. Now that we clinched at least having the second-most balls in the lottery, the last three games we'll see what happens. We'll see if we can go out and finish some games."

It's too bad tanking didn't work for the Bucks that year. Yi "frickin" Jianlian.

[Giannis Parker]

Lowe:

Brandon Knight has had a nice season, but he’s a notch below these guys at creating shots for teammates. Opponents have blitzed the Bucks with Knight on the floor; Milwaukee’s strong bench has been perhaps the most important ingredient in the team’s .500 record.

May I ask what you are getting at with this?

Seems only intuitive that a starting lineup of Knight, Middleton, Giannis, Ersan, and Zaza is going to be a bad starting lineup stat wise.

Bucks and VORP
Knight 2.9
Middleton 1.7
Dudley 1.6
Zaza 1.3
Giannis 1.2
Sanders 1.0
Henson .9
Mayo .5
Parker .5
Ersan .2
Bayless .1
Martin -.1
Wolters -.2
Marshall -.3
O'Bryant -.6

VORP has widely been used as a primary stat to analyze a player and their talents, and when converted to WARP and compared to PER, helps you properly rank players. Using these tools as comparison points, Knight and Middleton are the only Bucks who grade as starting NBA talents. It should also be worth noting that Zaza, Giannis, Dudley, Henson, and Ersan all grade as elite bench players.

[Lippo]

So if we did Knight for Vonleh, what Bayless and Mayo run the 1?

[ackypoo]

So if we did Knight for Vonleh, what Bayless and Mayo run the 1?

who cares? worry about it next year.

[mlloyd10]

We just need a "ball handler" that has a high assist/turnover ratio and can score in the paint. If Knight would show more willingness to pass the rock and gets higher assists like 6-7 a game, we are fine.

Fixed

[breakchains]

Would love to flip Knight and Ersan into Vonleh and Stauskas.

[imithanos]

The first criteria to determinate if a player is good or not is the eye test.

[Lippo]

Would love to flip Knight and Ersan into Vonleh and Stauskas.

so..
Ersan/LAC 1st/2016 2nd
for
Stauskas/Williams

and

Knight/2nd
for
Vonleh/Taylor

and maybe

Dudley/2015 1st (top 8 prot)/2nd
for
Schroeder

2016
Schroeder/Mayo/Marshall
Middleton/Stauskas/Taylor
Parker/Giannis/Inglis
Giannis/Vonleh/Williams
Henson/Vonleh/Sanders

[machu46]

Lowe:

Brandon Knight has had a nice season, but he’s a notch below these guys at creating shots for teammates. Opponents have blitzed the Bucks with Knight on the floor; Milwaukee’s strong bench has been perhaps the most important ingredient in the team’s .500 record.

So he's a notch below being an All-Star at 22 or 23 or whatever he is? I'll take it.

[Giannis Parker]

We just need a "TEAM" that has a high assist/turnover ratio and can score in the paint. If Knight would show more willingness to pass the rock and gets higher assists like 6-7 a game, we are fine.

Fixed

Not quite right mlloyd10, I just fixed it to make it more accurate. I mean lets be honest, that is the only important factor.

[emunney]

So trade targets?

[MadBlueEdwards]

So trade targets?

Nah....Knight debate is more entertaining.

[WeekapaugGroove]

So trade targets?

Nah....Knight debate is more entertaining.

At some point posters need to be suspended for devolving EVERY **** thread into a Knight debate right???? It's out of control.

[ReasonablySober]

Your mom is out of control.