'14 Draft Thread - Parker Declares. List your top 4

[sidney lanier]

Smart, however, is a pure Jason Kidd-type PG if he's in the NBA at all.

And with that, your days of posting on a basketball message board should be over.

What—and give up show business?

http://www.pistolsfiringblog.com/compar ... jason-kidd

Comparing Marcus Smart and Jason Kidd

Kyle Porter — February 27, 2013 — 12 Comments

One of the most fun parts of this season so far to me has been trying to figure out comparisons for Marcus Smart.

I hate the whole “well, he’s the first Marcus Smart” thing that everybody does. That’s true (of course it is) but it’s a fun-sucking sports statement that I’ll let others deal with.

OKC Dave has looked at his Tyreke Evans, James Harden, Caron Butler comps and showed how historical his season has been but I think ESPN really nailed it last weekend during the West Virginia game.

Carson Cunningham @KOCOCarson
ESPN finally nailed the best Marcus Smart comparison: Jason Kidd. That's exactly who he is. #okstate
1:04 PM - 23 Feb 2013

So let’s look at Smart’s 2013 year up against Kidd’s freshman year at Cal (1993)…

Kidd ’93: 13 PPG | 5 RPG | 8 APG | 4 SPG | 0 BPG | 46/29/66 (FG/3P/FT)
Smart ’13: 16 PPG | 6 RPG | 4 APG | 3 SPG | 1 BPG | 41/30/78 (FG/3P/FT)

Incredibly similar. Kidd had more assists but [fill in "if Forte wasn't one for his last 977" joke here]. Kidd also had a future NBA first rounder to dish to in Lamond Murray.

Amazingly, if Kidd’s career is any indication (and it would appear from those numbers that it is) there’s room for improvement with Smart. Kidd was a a consensus All-American in 1994 (along with Grant Hill, Donyell Marshall, Glenn Robinson, and Clifford Rozier) and went #2 overall in the ’94 draft.

Kidd ’94: 17 PPG | 7 RPG | 9 APG | 4 SPG | 47/36/70 (FG/3P/FT)
Smart ’14: [says quick prayer, posts slanderous material on Internet to deter NBA GMs from wanting him]

Somebody shove an iPad in front of #3 with these facts and figures. Will him to come back. Let’s make it happen, OSU fans. This year marks the 20-year anniversary of Kidd’s historical freshman season. Together we will! Yes we can!

[Chapter29]

For me I need to understand the Embiid injury and see these guys in person.

Until then I've got....

Wiggins - World class athleticism cannot be ignored. Mentally he might not have it. I would love the pairing of Giannis, Wiggins and a defensive anchor in Sanders.

Embiid - Not sure I want to take the big man again to be honest (big guy...bad back...been there, we do have Sanders) I want someone electrifying. Tough decision.

Exum - Something tells me this is the superstar in the draft. I don't know why. Not sure on his character.

Parker - Seems to be the safe pick. Not a great athlete so that worries me. Might consider someone else at 4.

The bottom line is that we need to pick the star this time. We missed on big dog, we missed on Bogut.

[LUKE23]

He says "Kidd had more assists" like he averaged one more. Kidd was 10.3 per 40. Smart was 5.8. Again, Kidd's court vision was all-time good coming in. And given both lacked a jumper entering the draft, that distinction needs to be made. Smart is nowhere close to Kidd as a passer.

[MiltownHawkeye]

He says "Kidd had more assists" like he averaged one more. Kidd was 10.3 per 40. Smart was 5.8. Again, Kidd's court vision was all-time good coming in. And given both lacked a jumper entering the draft, that distinction needs to be made. Smart is nowhere close to Kidd as a passer.

It's all because Kidd had Lamond Murray to pass to.

[Wise1]

If only 15/10 meant anything unless put into context. What's the efficiency? How much is he turning it over to get that 15/10? Is he a black hole or is he involving his teammates? Is his man out producing him at the other end?

I mean JJ Hickson gets you double doubles. Hell, if we played Adrien 36 mpg he'd average one. It's an overrated statement and doesn't take into account many other things.

If you think Randle will turn out to be of the Hickson, Arien or Gooden ilk, then simply state it as a matter of opinion. I think he'll be much better than that obviously. He's a physical monster at age 19. When he actually "matures" into a man frame at ages 23-26, he'll be an absolute beast. Physical dominance translates extremely well to the NBA and this is one of the reasons why I'm more confident in Randle and Smart than I am in Wiggins.

Many years ago I remember you specifically telling me that Demarr DeRozan was going to be a player of special ability and advocated picking him. I questioned his "skills" versus his athleticism and was extremely skeptical even though we didn't have an abundance of options at that point. I feel the same way about Wiggins...granted I think his defense on the perimeter will translate well. Don't be fooled by athletes Luke. Skills and abilities should be the focus.

[coolhandluke121]

You won't be able to convince me a guy being paid 24 million the next three years coming off the season he had last season will pull anything in trade.

I thought that last year was pretty much all non-guaranteed. Also, Ersan had a very good year in the first year of his new contract, so he proved that he wasn't a contract-year fluke. He just had a horrible season. He is strictly a rhythm player who needs to be on a team that caters to his strengths. Any good gm should be able to see that. The only reason I would trade him is if I want to tank again (which I do). I think he will bounce back and be an asset next season, along with Sanders, so I can't see trading him when his value is lower than it should be.

[zmanishere11]

To me - Parker is the worst case scenario / consolation prize of this draft (IE, we miss out on a top 3 and pick 4).

Don't get me wrong - I don't think he'll be a bad player, I just feel like his absolute CEILING is a better rebounding, worse scoring Carmelo Anthony. Good player - nothing elite about him.

Plus, I think Parker helps us win games next year, when what we really need to get ahead is one more terrible year.

I do LOVE the depth of this draft though. To me - this is the year to try to bundle our 2nds for a late 1, buy a late one, trade anyone outside of Giannis / Wolters / Henson for a late 1

[hege53190]

He says "Kidd had more assists" like he averaged one more. Kidd was 10.3 per 40. Smart was 5.8. Again, Kidd's court vision was all-time good coming in. And given both lacked a jumper entering the draft, that distinction needs to be made. Smart is nowhere close to Kidd as a passer.

Yeah take away the one attribute that makes a player an all-time great and then compare him to someone.

Do you know who Jarbari parker reminds me of? Magic Johnson. Magic Johnson had more assists but otherwise their stats were very similar.

[Licensed to Il]

I don't want to trade Ersan to make the Bucks better, I want to trade Ersan for Ersan's sake. Remember the "Free Darko" movement? This guy needs to be released from Bucks purgatory to the Wolves, Spurs, or Rockets. Put him on a team that will spread the floor, let him board, and get him open looks. If Ersan got traded to a good situation, no matter what we got back, I would feel like Red in Shawshank Redemption when he figured out how it all went down. Picture me, in a meadow, digging an Ersan Spurs jersey out from a pile of rocks at the end of a fence line...

[LUKE23]

Lamond Murray is the reason he was that much better of a passer? I don't know if that was sarcasm or not, but assuming it was not, I strongly disagree.

Wise, regarding DeRozan, I was a big advocate of drafting him. He started out pretty poorly, but has evolved into a pretty nice player, so not sure that is the best example. Wiggins is a better shooter and defender than DeRozan coming in though, and a slightly better athlete. Check DeRozan's shooting stats his first few years though.

I don't believe Randle's double double stats will translate to winning basketball. I also believe that lack of length will hurt him going against NBA PF's. I also think he's a terrible defender. He is seven on my board. And I also wasn't saying Hickson is as good. I just don't like people using "double doubles" as a reason a player will be good.

Lastly, I have a major issue with people calling Wiggins just an athlete. I have a major problem with people acting like he scored 2 ppg last year. He had a near identical offensive year to Randle. He had a better freshman season offensively than Marcus Smart. The only reason people downgrade him is because they had unrealistic expectations of his production coming in.

[Licensed to Il]

I think Kidd is a decent comparison for Smart if one acknowledges that Jason had all time elite court vision and creativity (passes and dribble drives no one else had tried) and Smart is probably league average in these area.

Size wise, physique wise, defensive temperament, on court leadership, there are some similarities.

But that first caveat makes the comparison tough for me to swallow.

LOL at Lamond Murray. Kidd mad him at Cal, not the other way around.

[LUKE23]

Like I said, my issue with the "Randle is an offensive stud, Wiggins is just an athlete" stuff:

Per 40

Randle: 19.4 ppg @ .567 TS
Wiggins: 20.8 ppg @ .563 TS

Both played over 30 mpg so the comparison is valid. Usage rates were also very close.

[zmanishere11]

One other thing to consider here, and I haven't seen this brought up anywhere else:

Looks like the NBA will be pushing HARD for a 20 year old age limit, starting likely in the 2016 draft. I would have to imagine, that draft will be HORRIBLE if this thing goes through.

Like, Marcus Smart would be the best player in the draft horrible.

I think we've got a 2 year window to re-build this thing into a winner. Another top 5 pick next year and I think we can get there!

[coolhandluke121]

I'd say maybe Smart = Lowry would be a more reasonable comparison. That's solid value with a lotto pick in the 5-10 range.

[sidney lanier]

I think Kidd is a decent comparison for Smart if one acknowledges that Jason had all time elite court vision and creativity (passes and dribble drives no one else had tried) and Smart is probably league average in these area.

Size wise, physique wise, defensive temperament, on court leadership, there are some similarities.

But that first caveat makes the comparison tough for me to swallow.

LOL at Lamond Murray. Kidd mad him at Cal, not the other way around.

My original point was to counter expressed skepticism about Smart being a one at all. Because of his size, some might see him as a combo guard or a 2. I see him as a pure PG similar to Kidd in size and probably style, and as someone who would not be successful in the NBA in any other role. As those who did a spit take at this comparison and suggested that it represents the height of basketball ignorance back quietly away, it's reasonable to look at the comparison again.

I don't agree with the ESPN tweeter that Smart is Kidd, but the broad comparison is still apt. Of course he hasn't demonstrated Kidd's passing skills, anymore than Embiid has shown yet that he's more Hakeem than Kandi Man. These kinds of x=y comparisons are ways to frame the evaluation process, not refine it. I think you have it about right.

[mlloyd10]

What's the highest you think that LaVine and Payne will go?

LaVine/Wiggins/Giannis/Payne/Sanders is the starting lineup I want in 2014-2015 with Wolters/Middleton the first two off the bench



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[emunney]

Kyle Anderson is basically LeBron James.

I just don't see the utility of a comparison to a Hall of Famer if it requires the caveat of "If you ignore the thing that put him in the Hall of Fame".

[sidney lanier]

Kyle Anderson is basically LeBron James.

I just don't see the utility of a comparison to a Hall of Famer if it requires the caveat of "If you ignore the thing that put him in the Hall of Fame".

It's shorthand for defining a style. Looking at it as a qualitative comparison is foolish.

[emunney]

It makes no sense stylistically. Kidd is defined by his passing. Would you compare Glenn Robinson to Magic Johnson?

[Licensed to Il]

I love your posts Sid, and was just talking about the comparison in general. It has some merit, but they are different enough where I think we are still searching for a closer comp.

I do like Smart, I probably have him 5th, and I only have Exum 4rth off of what others are saying.

My defense of Smart is this, message board arguments are presented in a vacuum. Stats are put side by side, highlight clips are compared, tangents are launched, etc. But real basketball is face to face. And when some internet darling with great efficiency stats receives the inbounds pass vs Smart, they will feel like Hansbrough in the famous gif where he realizes he just instigated something with Artest. Smart will just cut you off anywhere you try to go, throw you around, knock you off your spot, and give you hell all night. He even makes nights tough for hecklers! Seriously though, I get that Smart is not going to be a statistical darling. But more nights than not, he will confound the guy playing against him. He will nudge, scrap, and muscle his way to the free throw line. He is already probably top 5 in terms of strength/size for NBA point guards. He will have to be defended with the opponents top wing defender, because of his physical attributes alone.

I certainly wouldn't take him top 4, because he just is not that level of prospect. But I like him at this stage about as much as I did Deron Williams, who turned out to have a fantastic first half of an NBA career.