Trade Targets (postcript on yesterday-other teams)

[AussieBuck]

As someone who "supports" Knight, I'm pretty bored of arguing the same point over and over again. There is nothing more to be gained at this point by me (or others) saying Knight is obviously a talented and still improving player with value as a prospect to a developing team and you posting some variation of +/- or on/off rating and your interpretation of what it means, while neither of us being convinced by the other's evidence. It's happened hundreds of times on dozens of threads already, there is no point in repeating it here.

About RAPM, which team is better?

1. Patrick Beverley / Andre Iguodala / DeMarre Carroll / Nick Collison / Channing Frye

vs

2. Damian Lillard / Wes Matthews / Carmelo Anthony / Al Horford / Marc Gasol

Because RAPM thought #1 would beat #2 last year. And if you agree you are seriously delusional.

RAPM doesn't think and if it did that's not what it would think.

[ampd]

The argument is if you get a mid 1st pick we have been pretty good with those. Meanwhile you avoid paying Knight a crushing 13M+/. Because the moment he signs that he is a negative asset (as far as most of us are concerned). So getting an asset for a player about to turn into a liability would be a good thing.

I don't know that I'm on board with paying Knight the max, or $13 million, but I do think this is the wrong way to go about approaching "negative" value.

His value would be as an improving prospect contributing to wins. If he got paid $13 million you need to weigh that against the other possible uses of $13 million and their likelihood of success. If we don't pay Knight do we instead go after other hopefully higher impact free agents in our price range, or do we do what Hammond did 2 years ago and sign overpriced low upside vets like OJ Mayo and Zaza for a combined $13 million? How valuable is cap space in the current CBA, and how much will signing Knight impact our ability to absorb next year's Jared Dudley?

For that matter how likely is it that Knight continues to improve, and how much?

Trying to decide the opportunity cost of signing Knight (or Middleton or any player) isn't as simple as just saying he'll be getting $13 million and would be harder to trade on that contract than he is now, therefore it's a bad idea.

I don't know exactly what value I'd retain Knight at, I want to see him for a whole season under Kidd before I decide anything, and if we trade him before that I'd greatly prefer a tangible asset of similar quality but better fit like Motiejunas over a late lotto pick or a package of long shots and busts / projected roleplayers.

[ampd]

As someone who "supports" Knight, I'm pretty bored of arguing the same point over and over again. There is nothing more to be gained at this point by me (or others) saying Knight is obviously a talented and still improving player with value as a prospect to a developing team and you posting some variation of +/- or on/off rating and your interpretation of what it means, while neither of us being convinced by the other's evidence. It's happened hundreds of times on dozens of threads already, there is no point in repeating it here.

About RAPM, which team is better?

1. Patrick Beverley / Andre Iguodala / DeMarre Carroll / Nick Collison / Channing Frye

vs

2. Damian Lillard / Wes Matthews / Carmelo Anthony / Al Horford / Marc Gasol

Because RAPM thought #1 would beat #2 last year. And if you agree you are seriously delusional.

RAPM doesn't think and if it did that's not what it would think.

RAPM certainly did think that if you think you can just sort it in descending order and decide which players are better than others.

Last year xRAPM Amir Johnson +6.1, Marc Gasol +4.3, Amir is nearly 50% "better" than Marc Gasol right? right?

Obviously not, but you can't use RAPM to demonstrate that. Which I'm sure we both agree on. But this idea that +/- and adjusted +/- are somehow foolproof methods to evaluate players against each other by just scanning down a table of values is probably the biggest myth on this board (and not one I am accusing you of specifically).

[AussieBuck]

As someone who "supports" Knight, I'm pretty bored of arguing the same point over and over again. There is nothing more to be gained at this point by me (or others) saying Knight is obviously a talented and still improving player with value as a prospect to a developing team and you posting some variation of +/- or on/off rating and your interpretation of what it means, while neither of us being convinced by the other's evidence. It's happened hundreds of times on dozens of threads already, there is no point in repeating it here.

About RAPM, which team is better?

1. Patrick Beverley / Andre Iguodala / DeMarre Carroll / Nick Collison / Channing Frye

vs

2. Damian Lillard / Wes Matthews / Carmelo Anthony / Al Horford / Marc Gasol

Because RAPM thought #1 would beat #2 last year. And if you agree you are seriously delusional.

RAPM doesn't think and if it did that's not what it would think.

RAPM certainly did think that if you think you can just sort it in descending order and decide which players are better than others.

Last year xRAPM Amir Johnson +6.1, Marc Gasol +4.3, Amir is nearly 50% "better" than Marc Gasol right? right?

Obviously not, but you can't use RAPM to demonstrate that.

1. xRAPM isn't RAPM
2. RAPM isn't a ranking of players

[LUKE23]

Are there still Bucks fans that really believe we are going to miss the playoffs? Trade targets aside I seen Luke23 mention something about pick 13/14... Just wanted to know if that's a consensus feeling or just a gut feeling from someone desperately hoping we end up in the lotto? Thanks.

As for me, I'd love to recreate the FTD team and make that John Salmons esque move to help push the needle.

And if Frank Kaminsky is anyone's 1st round target then God help us all... If ur hoping for a lotto pick and a total waste of a year so we can draft him then that's just pathetic.

Is your browser not working, or did you just choose to pick random sentences from a few posts and then make up your own story?

[tydett]

When Lasry said that Knight was going to get a contract done and be here, he obviously meant that the Bucks would use the cap space saved by not paying Knight to absorb his new contract and an asset from whatever team gets buyer's remorse from signing him.

[ampd]

RAPM doesn't think and if it did that's not what it would think.

RAPM certainly did think that if you think you can just sort it in descending order and decide which players are better than others.

Last year xRAPM Amir Johnson +6.1, Marc Gasol +4.3, Amir is nearly 50% "better" than Marc Gasol right? right?

Obviously not, but you can't use RAPM to demonstrate that.

1. xRAPM isn't RAPM
2. RAPM isn't a ranking of players

1. RAPM rated the first collection of players even higher in comparison to the 2nd group than xRAPM. Pure RAPM had Amir at 4.2 and Gasol at 2.1, which would mean it evaluated him as being twice as good rather than only 50%. It's not quite as easy as saying RAPM just measures the impact a player has in his role in a specific lineup either, because the whole point of regularizing and/or adjusting the +/- in the first place was to account for those differences. In any case, the point is the values (RAPM, xRAPM, whatever) need context, and that context isn't provided by RAPM itself.

2. I'm not confused about what RAPM is.

However, if you can't use RAPM values to to compare a player's value to another's and draw meaningful conclusions from it, it's essentially useless (I'd like to note that objecting on the basis of using combined RAPM values to compare the predicted future performance of lineups doesn't work any better because it again results in silliness like my example above). In that sense "ranking" players by RAPM is an inevitable consequence of generating RAPM values in the first place.

[Baddy Chuck]

In that sense "ranking" players by RAPM is an inevitable consequence of generating RAPM values in the first place.

You're also basically comparing the best janitor in the white house to the president. Guys that are asked to play great defense and hit open shots play a lot different role then a guy like Damian Lillard. Their RAPMs, xRAPMS or whatever show that they are performing well in the role they are in, not if you tried to use Patrick Beverly the same as you would Mike Conley.

[ampd]

In that sense "ranking" players by RAPM is an inevitable consequence of generating RAPM values in the first place.

You're also basically comparing the best janitor in the white house to the president. Guys that are asked to play great defense and hit open shots play a lot different role then a guy like Damian Lillard. Their RAPMs, xRAPMS or whatever show that they are performing well in the role they are in, not if you tried to use Patrick Beverly the same as you would Mike Conley.

I agree with all of that, and I don't deny RAPM has value (I too like it better than PER and VORP if I have to pick one) but that's hardly how people are using it and other flavors of +/- to evaluate Knight in this endless repetitive debate.

[AussieBuck]

RAPM certainly did think that if you think you can just sort it in descending order and decide which players are better than others.

Last year xRAPM Amir Johnson +6.1, Marc Gasol +4.3, Amir is nearly 50% "better" than Marc Gasol right? right?

Obviously not, but you can't use RAPM to demonstrate that.

1. xRAPM isn't RAPM
2. RAPM isn't a ranking of players

1. RAPM rated the first collection of players even higher in comparison to the 2nd group than xRAPM. Pure RAPM had Amir at 4.2 and Gasol at 2.1, which would mean it evaluated him as being twice as good rather than only 50%. It's not quite as easy as saying RAPM just measures the impact a player has in his role in a specific lineup either, because the whole point of regularizing and/or adjusting the +/- in the first place was to account for those differences. In any case, the point is the values (RAPM, xRAPM, whatever) need context, and that context isn't provided by RAPM itself.

2. I'm not confused about what RAPM is.

However, if you can't use RAPM values to to compare a player's value to another's and draw meaningful conclusions from it, it's essentially useless (I'd like to note that objecting on the basis of using combined RAPM values to compare the predicted future performance of lineups doesn't work any better because it again results in silliness like my example above). In that sense "ranking" players by RAPM is an inevitable consequence of generating RAPM values in the first place.

RAPM is used to separate the strength/weakness of teammates and opponents, it's not meant to adjust for roles you've got that arse backwards.

[tski1972]

[AussieBuck]

Trade Knight for a pick! Back on track.

[Eeavers57]

Is there any way that we could do a sign and trade with the Bulls in the summer? We get Butler on a max type deal and the Bulls get Knight and Middleton on long term deals? Is this even possible?

[Octopus Jonny]

Is there any way that we could do a sign and trade with the Bulls in the summer? We get Butler on a max type deal and the Bulls get Knight and Middleton on long term deals? Is this even possible?

I like KMID on a 3/24 type deal more than Butler as a post-rookie max.

[breakchains]

Invest in Middleton, cash in on Knight, and make the decision on Henson later unless you get a deal you like too much to pass up.

[mlloyd10]

Invest in Middleton, cash in on Knight, and make the decision on Henson later unless you get a deal you like too much to pass up.

100% agree

[DanGadzuric50]

With a twitter report saying Bucks are interested in JaMychal Green, and the RealGM article saying we are looking at Gary Talton, it sure sounds like Martin is not coming back.

[ChuckBros4Life]

Best case scenario is Knight getting selected to all-star team and then us dealing him in a draft day deal like what Philly did with Jrue Holiday

[mlloyd10]

Knight for Monroe

[Eeavers57]

Knight for Monroe

I would not be willing to give up Knight for nothing. Now that is bad asset management.