The Josh Smith eventually to the Bucks thread (maybe)

[Lippo]

The "best we can do" is draft a superstar with a top 3 pick and not sign bums like gooden to 40 million dollar deals.

Actually if go the tank for a superstar route ..
1 : LBJ, we never won a title in Cleveland and even 1st year in Miami.
2 : Durant, has not won anything and would not be winning 50+ games without Westbrook, KD is a scorer.
3 : Rose, Bulls have not made the finals and won't.
4 : Paul, We could have had him, but we took the great white hype.
5 : Duncan/Jabbar/Shaq/Olijawon, yep that's what we would need - (There are no big men like this anymore and if one comes along he would come out as Sophmores and by the time they get this skilled they would leave Milwaukee anyways)

So we need to have the 1st overall pick in a draft that comes along once every 10 years
so
say 15% chance of getting the #1 every year (that's finish bottom 3 every year for 10 years)
15% ^ 10
0.000000576650390625% chance of that happening ... good plan
or 1 in 1,734,152

[trwi7]

The "best we can do" is draft a superstar with a top 3 pick and not sign bums like gooden to 40 million dollar deals.

Actually if go the tank for a superstar route ..
1 : LBJ, we never won a title in Cleveland and even 1st year in Miami.
2 : Durant, has not won anything and would not be winning 50+ games without Westbrook, KD is a scorer.
3 : Rose, Bulls have not made the finals and won't.
4 : Paul, We could have had him, but we took the great white hype.
5 : Duncan/Jabbar/Shaq/Olijawon, yep that's what we would need - (There are no big men like this anymore and if one comes along he would come out as Sophmores and by the time they get this skilled they would leave Milwaukee anyways)

So we need to have the 1st overall pick in a draft that comes along once every 10 years
so
say 15% chance of getting the #1 every year (that's finish bottom 3 every year for 10 years)
15% ^ 10
0.000000576650390625% chance of that happening ... good plan
or 1 in 1,734,152

This is the dumbest thing I've ever read.

[Lippo]

what exactly is dumb about it?

math not your strong point eh, its a simple calculation.

so going the tank for a pick route what do you think the chances are that the Bucks get a player that wins them a championship.

% wise

your "all the stars align" scenario for you.

say we had the #1 overall pick the last 8 years

Irving/Wall
Rose/Wall
Griffin
Davis/Barganini
Bogut/Odon

would that team even get to the finals?

[superelkman]

what exactly is dumb about it?

math not your strong point eh, its a simple calculation.

so going the tank for a pick route what do you think the chances are that the Bucks get a player that wins them a championship.

% wise

your "all the stars align" scenario for you.

say we had the #1 overall pick the last 8 years

Irving/Wall
Rose/Wall
Griffin
Davis/Barganini
Bogut/Odon

would that team even get to the finals?

You calculated our chances of winning the #1 pick every year for 10 years at 15% per year.

If we had a 15% chance to get the 1st every year for 10 years we would have a 80.41% chance of getting it atleast once in those ten years.

[superelkman]

Oh I see... you are saying that those talents also only come around once every ten years. Gotcha.

[superelkman]

Actually thinking about this again. If our odds were 15% of getting the number one in every draft for 10 years and there is a 10% chance of a superstar talent being that draft then we would have a 1.5% chance every year to get a superstar. This would leave us a 14% chance of getting a superstar given .985(chance of not getting a superstar in any give draft)^10 = likelihood of not getting one.

[InsideOut]

what exactly is dumb about it?

math not your strong point eh, its a simple calculation.

so going the tank for a pick route what do you think the chances are that the Bucks get a player that wins them a championship.

% wise

your "all the stars align" scenario for you.

say we had the #1 overall pick the last 8 years

Irving/Wall
Rose/Wall
Griffin
Davis/Barganini
Bogut/Odon

would that team even get to the finals?

What's dumb about it is it is not all about getting a superstar and it's not all about just winning a title. Sure, we could get another Jabbar but we could also get another Sidney and Marcus or Allen and Dog. In 45 years how many times have the Bucks got an all-star or all-NBA player via trade or FA? Many times the Bucks have got these kind of guys with their own top 5 pick. So now factor that in and figure out the odds of the Bucks getting a great player via their own top 5 pick vs. them getting a star in a way that has never worked here before.

[Max Green]

Ferry pulling out at the last minute was a dick move, obviously he wasn't obligated to trade Smith to us, but it seems to me like he wasn't negotiating on good faith. We had a deal in place and he tried to jam us up for Sanders at the last minute and when Hammond didn't bite (which I give him credit for) he hung up the phone like a bitch.

[-Jragon-]

I would like to Sign Josh Smith in the offseason, sign Monta, resign Redick and sign/trade Jennings + Ersan + our first for a real PF (or SF). Maybe Monta agrees to be a PG if he can play with his boyfriend.

Pg Monta
Sg Redick
Sf Josh Smith
Pf (guy from s&t or Ersan/Henson or let Jennings walk and Ersan stays)
C Sanders

[trwi7]

I would like to Sign Josh Smith in the offseason, sign Monta, resign Redick and sign/trade Jennings + Ersan + our first for a real PF (or SF). Maybe Monta agrees to be a PG if he can play with his boyfriend.

Pg Monta
Sg Redick
Sf Josh Smith
Pf (guy from s&t or Ersan/Henson or let Jennings walk and Ersan stays)
C Sanders

And sign Carlos Gomez to a 5 year $100 million contract to be the backup PG/leadoff hitter.

[-Jragon-]

Ferry pulling out at the last minute was a dick move, obviously he wasn't obligated to trade Smith to us, but it seems to me like he wasn't negotiating on good faith. We had a deal in place and he tried to jam us up for Sanders at the last minute and when Hammond didn't bite (which I give him credit for) he hung up the phone like a bitch.

Is there confirmation that this is really what happened? If so, Sanders might be the better talent moving forward so good job to Hammond.

[LUKE23]

The fact that the Hawks wanted Ellis and we wouldn't include him, is both amazing and absolves Hammond of any type of credit on the "almost trade" for Smith. Blaming Ferry is hilarious.

[-Jragon-]

I would like to Sign Josh Smith in the offseason, sign Monta, resign Redick and sign/trade Jennings + Ersan + our first for a real PF (or SF). Maybe Monta agrees to be a PG if he can play with his boyfriend.

Pg Monta
Sg Redick
Sf Josh Smith
Pf (guy from s&t or Ersan/Henson or let Jennings walk and Ersan stays)
C Sanders

And sign Carlos Gomez to a 5 year $100 million contract to be the backup PG/leadoff hitter.

Could we pay all 3 if we let Jennings walk (and passed on Gomez)?

[jeremyd236]

The fact that the Hawks wanted Ellis and we wouldn't include him, is both amazing and absolves Hammond of any type of credit on the "almost trade" for Smith. Blaming Ferry is hilarious.

The fact that you and others continue to post this as fact rather than speculation in an attempt to support your hate is even more hilarious. There's as many reports that say the Hawks wanted Ellis (last week) than there were yesterday of Ellis never even being discussed.

[LUKE23]

There are quotes out of Hammond's mouth that he wanted to keep Monta. Several sources said the Hawks wanted Ellis. So yes, I'll go off that to put two and two together. Those that are blaming Ferry here are nuts.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

The fact that the Hawks wanted Ellis and we wouldn't include him, is both amazing and absolves Hammond of any type of credit on the "almost trade" for Smith. Blaming Ferry is hilarious.

where has it been confirmed that ellis was the hawks primary target?

[Chapter29]

The fact that the Hawks wanted Ellis and we wouldn't include him, is both amazing and absolves Hammond of any type of credit on the "almost trade" for Smith. Blaming Ferry is hilarious.

Fact? Really?

Seems like speculation to me.

[drew881]

I think the Rockets will be in on the Smith sweepstakes again. I'm looking at salaries, and in 2014-2015 they are screwed. Jeremy Lin and Asik's poison pill contracts both top 14 million. They don't have anything else on the books, but if they are planning to go after another big name player, that would make four 14 million dollar contracts due in that year. Either they are going to have to weather that storm one year with some serious tax, before having to extend Lin and Asik, or one of them (most likely Asik) has to be traded.

It will be interesting to see if Morey's tactics will come back to bite him. Staggering the two poison pills would have been smarter, but I don't know if it would have worked with the respective teams (Bulls and Knicks).

[BigDoggyStyle]

So Hammond just said the Hawks never told him exactly what it would take to get Smith. Not true that there was a deal and they pulled out at the last second.

[RandyBreuer]

I say BS to Atlanta wanting Ellis, can't see it with Lou Williams there a few more years. Ferry likely feared Ellis would opt in anyway. Atlanta will certainly have chance to do better in free agency than the rumored Mil deal.