PG Sixers: Bucks Roll (Eventually)

[Plossum]

Am I missing an insider joke or is AJ currently at 41% on the season from 3?

[Baddy Chuck]

Am I missing an insider joke or is AJ currently at 41% on the season from 3?

Funny enough, it was actually a 1 off comment to you in a postgame thread that the non crazy dude has been apparently festering over for weeks.

[ShootingtheJ]

Things I was told recently

1: Giannis isn't a top tier distributor
2: AJ Green is probably only about a 39% 3 point shooter

Thanks to both for making me look less like the only crazy person

Grats on the victory man, AJ has raised his 3p% from 39% to 40% (well 39.8%, I'll give you the dub though) from the argument I presented in this April game against the strongest tank since the original process.

You still are a nutjob, this type of stuff furthers that. But little victories, keep it up man, you're doing great! Might even be fridge worthy.

Or just use the larger sample size, where he's a 42% 3 point shooter both this season and for his career.

[ShootingtheJ]

Our PGs with 18 points on 8-13 shooting. Love them just being efficient and letting Giannis be the offense hub.

[German Athens]

I think Giannis’s favorite pass to make is to someone under the basket rather than outside at the 3pt line. I’ve thought this for a long time, and I really wish we would’ve schemed more around that over the past 7 years.

When teams form a 3 man wall at 18ft, having someone dive under the basket and making an entry pass over the top pretty much kills that defense.

We sprinkled in dunker spot stuff in 21, but we could have done more variations of it, and it shouldn’t have taken multiple full seasons to finally lean into that.

[pifhluk23]

We were wondering what was wrong with the offense all season, and the answer is Giannis is wasted as a roll man. Get the ball in his hands, and everyone eats.

Now let's get any big man back so we can occasionally grab a rebound. That's gotten embarrassing. A bunch of teams have a playable big on a 2 way contract, but Horst is our GM.

cmon now, you can't base that off a game vs the G League 76ers. Everything I've seen the past 2 years of watching is that Dame is much better at initiating the offense, we've been way worse offensively going away from that.

[ShootingtheJ]

We were wondering what was wrong with the offense all season, and the answer is Giannis is wasted as a roll man. Get the ball in his hands, and everyone eats.

Now let's get any big man back so we can occasionally grab a rebound. That's gotten embarrassing. A bunch of teams have a playable big on a 2 way contract, but Horst is our GM.

cmon now, you can't base that off a game vs the G League 76ers. Everything I've seen the past 2 years of watching is that Dame is much better at initiating the offense, we've been way worse going away from that.

2 games ago we had the highest TS% in league history.

[ShootingtheJ]

I think Giannis’s favorite pass to make is to someone under the basket rather than outside at the 3pt line. I’ve thought this for a long time, and I really wish we would’ve schemed more around that over the past 7 years.

When teams form a 3 man wall at 18ft, having someone dive under the basket and making an entry pass over the top pretty much kills that defense.

We sprinkled in dunker spot stuff in 21, but we could have done more variations of it, and it shouldn’t have taken multiple full seasons to finally lean into that.

Yes. Actual dunkers in the dunker spot would help too, instead of 6'4" dudes.

[emunney]

FWIW, Duncan Robinson's had one season where he shot better than AJ's career % from 3.

[German Athens]

I think Giannis’s favorite pass to make is to someone under the basket rather than outside at the 3pt line. I’ve thought this for a long time, and I really wish we would’ve schemed more around that over the past 7 years.

When teams form a 3 man wall at 18ft, having someone dive under the basket and making an entry pass over the top pretty much kills that defense.

We sprinkled in dunker spot stuff in 21, but we could have done more variations of it, and it shouldn’t have taken multiple full seasons to finally lean into that.

Yes. Actual dunkers in the dunker spot would help too, instead of 6'4" dudes.

That, and bigs who move really well.

[CharityStripe34]

That's always been the secret for the Bucks. Find an athletic big who is a good cutter, can play in the dunker, rebound and be decent defensively. With Gianni's passing and shooters around them the "wall" doesn't work (as well as Gianni's mid-range shot).

[Ron Swanson]

We haven't even tried Giannis as a "roll-man" the last two seasons (7.2% and 8.3% frequency) lol. The shooting talent on this team is hilarious because Doc refuses to optimize it any way. Again, 55% on 3's the last two games and we barely beat a bunch of G-league scrubs because Doc ball constantly puts us at a disadvantage in the math game. Team is now #1 in 3PT efficiency on the year btw, and only 18th in attempts. Pathetic that the offense still looks this bad against teams that aren't actively tanking.

[Baddy Chuck]

Or just use the larger sample size, where he's a 42% 3 point shooter both this season and for his career.

Believe whatever number you want, I really don't care. My point then and I'd still subscribe to now is his "drought" was basically caused by a month of him being unsustainably hot early in the season. Like shooting what would be the best percentage open shooting in the entire league accompanied by contested shooting that would be at a rate better than any shooter ever by a significant margin in recorded data.

He's obviously cooled off since then, shooting 39.5% from three. Last season when he went from sparingly used G-League call up to a rotation guy he shot 40.6% from February through April with consistency issues throughout the end of the season and the playoffs.

And really, I think it's only normal that it happens. He went from a dude people probably didn't gameplan at all for, to a guy that teams probably glossed over in the film room, to a player that defenses have to know where he's at on the court at all times. You take umbrage with me calling him a 39% shooter like I'm slighting him, I think largely thats around where good shooters who impact offenses wind up around since they aren't seeing the looks that some guys get. I much rather him be a 39% shooter like a Cam Johnson, Duncan Robinson, White Donte, etc than a 45% shooting bump on the log like Taurean Prince, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard. If you think he's peak Klay Thompson, go for it man, have fun.

[pifhluk23]

AJG value will show in the playoffs when hes curling off screens being tightly guarded and still hitting 3s. This is also where Prince will look like a minimum guy because he can't just cherry pick wide open 3s and he may end up unplayable.

[neiLz]

gg EZ.

[Ron Swanson]

Probably notable that AJ's 3PT attempt rate has consistently decreased as his role and minutes have increased. From 11-attempts per-36, down to 10 last season, now at 8 this season. I'd still put a lot of the role-player usage and optimization on the coaching staff, but that kinda illustrates why his talent, size, and skill limitations are always gonna make him a situational playoff guy.

We've seen this a million times with guys like Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris, and hell, even AJ last playoffs. These dudes can be the difference in a playoff game or quarter where they go nuclear from deep (Bryn Forbes), but so often they can be completely neutralized because one-dimensional offensive players that can't effectively attack a closeout are just so much easier to guard. Just like with Grayson against the Celtics, it's not as much about the overall shooting percentages, but about how many quality looks they can even get vs. good playoff defenses.

[ShootingtheJ]

Probably notable that AJ's 3PT attempt rate has consistently decreased as his role and minutes have increased. From 11-attempts per-36, down to 10 last season, now at 8 this season. I'd still put a lot of the role-player usage and optimization on the coaching staff, but that kinda illustrates why his talent, size, and skill limitations are always gonna make him a situational playoff guy.

We've seen this a million times with guys like Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris, and hell, even AJ last playoffs. These dudes can be the difference in a playoff game or quarter where they go nuclear from deep (Bryn Forbes), but so often they can be completely neutralized because one-dimensional offensive players that can't effectively attack a closeout are just so much easier to guard. Just like with Grayson against the Celtics, it's not as much about the overall shooting percentages, but about how many quality looks they can even get vs. good playoff defenses.

I agree with most of this, but the difference is AJ is also a defensive asset, where those others are liabilities. AJ is also a better passer than Forbes. When Forbes wasn't open for a 3, we often had to reset the offense, where as Green is able to continue to leverage the defense.

Yes, we still need to upgrade both wings from a roster full of replacement level players.

[fan230]

Giannis passing and 3 point shooting yesterday impressed me as a potentially good strategy for future too. However it was against a weak team. Not sure how relying on this against better teams would work. Thoughts?

[ShootingtheJ]

Giannis passing and 3 point shooting yesterday impressed me as a potentially good strategy for future too. However it was against a weak team. Not sure how relying on this against better teams would work. Thoughts?

Yes, they're a very weak team, but I think Bona actually does a nice job on Giannis. I'd much rather have Bona than Smith (or about 20 other players drafted after pick 33 or undrafted).

[Bernman]

Green's 3 pt attempts went down in part because his confidence did. He would pass up decent looks to shift the ball to Gary, Dame, Prince, etc. It's both objectively true and common sense Green wasn't at his norms for that month and a half, going from low to mid 40's to mid to upper 30's. He was missing a high rate of open looks.

I'd posit it's more body's tightening than defenses in the playoffs. Bled wasn't dead because defenses tightened. He couldn't handle the mental pressure. Green was in his 1st playoffs last year. A lot of players struggled in their debuts. Didn't seem because he couldn't get decent looks. He was playing Indy's D for God's sake. He was good in Vegas against OKC's & Atlanta's. He doesn't need to be a high volume guy. Just usually a decoy to relieve congestion. Then play D, like last night, & most of his Bucks' career. In that way he's not 1-dimensional, like those others. Him having slipped on d coinciding w/ his shooting slump further indicates something else was at play.

He'll either be healthy & confident in the playoffs, to make a positive contribution, or he won't. Better hope it's the former because he's a real x-factor for this team, & it's usually a positive one, looking at the net & d ratings.