Mayo signs with Bucks - 3 years/$24 million per Woj

[paulpressey25]

s+t Monta for Wilson Chandler would be perfect.

If the Nuggets see benefit in doing that swap, pretty much made to order for the Bucks.

Chandler another guy with a very decent, short and tradeable contract.

[MrPerfect1]

By your reasoning, LeBron is already in decline. When 99% of the world would agree he is in his prime.
CP3 is in his prime.

Hell, Mike Jordan didn't win his 1st title until 28. Before that he had athleticism, but not all around game of his thirties.

MJ's Best year: 87-88 Age 24
Lebron's Best year: 08-09 Age 24
Chris Paul's Best year: 08-09 Age 23

You can even verify on basketball-reference.com. Those years were their most efficient

*Now Lebron and Jordan were so amazing that even when they decline, it was slow so they were able to dominate for a long time but it does not change that they never topped their perfromance from when they were 24.

Here is an article about how NBA player's age:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 83372.html

Title: After Age 25, It's All Downhill for NBA Players

[ampd]

Lebron's best year was this year. Nash's best year was at 32. Wade's best year was at 27. Kobe's best year was at 27 or maybe even 29. Karl Malone's best year was arguably when he was 33. Shaq's best year at 27 (but was good well into 30s). Pippen's best year was at 28. Jerry West's best year was at 31. Hakeem's best year was at 30.

[MrPerfect1]

By what measure?

In 2004, Lebron had a higher PER and Win Shares. He had a barely higher Win Share/48 in 2012 (by .04) but played 200 minutes more in 2004 and played with much less talented teammates.


-Yes, there are exceptions to the rule, nobodyd is claiming it is true for every player ever born, but trying to build a team hoping that you are signing exceptions is not a solid philosophy.

-Name any random free agent. I'll take age 24, you can choose any other age and the odds will favor me that their peak year was 24. (For example the big names this year: Josh Smith-24, Dwight Howard-25, Chris Paul-23, Iggy-24)

[Wooderson]

By what measure?

In 2004, Lebron had a higher PER and Win Shares. He had a barely higher Win Share/48 in 2012 (by .04) but played 200 minutes more in 2004 and played with much less talented teammates.


-Yes, there are exceptions to the rule, nobodyd is claiming it is true for every player ever born, but trying to build a team hoping that you are signing exceptions is not a solid philosophy.

LeBron was forced to do more in 2009, and all-encompassing box score stats are going to reflect that. They also don't show the improvement he made on defense. He was ridiculous in '09, especially in the playoffs (probably his best playoff performance), but not as good of a player imo.

[europa]

I have some to kill before I take off so I'll play. What percentage of their career MVP awards did the following players win after age 24?

Bill Russell
Kareem
Jordan
Magic
LeBron

[ampd]

By what measure?

In 2004, Lebron had a higher PER and Win Shares. He had a barely higher Win Share/48 in 2012 (by .04) but played 200 minutes more in 2004 and played with much less talented teammates.


-Yes, there are exceptions to the rule, nobodyd is claiming it is true for every player ever born, but trying to build a team hoping that you are signing exceptions is not a solid philosophy.

-Name any random free agent. I'll take age 24, you can choose any other age and the odds will favor me that their peak year was 24.

Lebron's ws/48 was higher this year. His TS was 50 points higher, and his FG% was 80 points higher. He shot 60 points better from 3. He has actually been more efficient than he was at 24 every single year after that.

The only reason he didn't have a higher PER was he didn't shoot more. I guess in a way you can view that as a mark against him, but certainly not as evidence of his decline.

That article quotes Berri which is pretty much all you need to know

[MrPerfect1]

No idea. Although MVP voting has nothing to do with which year was a player's best.

Are there any examples of free agents of any value this year that had a peak after age 25?

[europa]

No idea. Although MVP voting has nothing to do with which year was a player's best.

You asked by what measure and I presented one.

[ampd]

I have some to kill before I take off so I'll play. What percentage of their career MVP awards did the following players win after age 24?

Bill Russell
Kareem
Jordan
Magic
LeBron

Everyone but Magic and Kareem won their first MVP at 24 and then others after. Magic won his first at 27 and Kareem won MVP at 23 and 24.

[MrPerfect1]

Usually when someone says which measure it means a statistical measure.

I also do not understand how it would address the question:

What year was a player at the peak of his powers? Responding "He won 5 MVPs from ages 27-36...." It doesn't answer the question in any way since it hinges on a ton of assumptions:

1. He did not win any mvps before age 27 (using that as an example)
2. MVPs are only given out during a player's best seasons
3. Your own Best Season would not be trumped by someone else's best season

[ampd]

Demonstrating statistically that players tend to reach their peak from 24-27 (a proposition that I think nobody would get too angry about) does not follow that all players do or that all players then precipitously decline.

I haven't read the actual paper Berri wrote so I don't know what it has to say on the subject of whether certain player types, positions, body types, skill sets, etc tend to hit their peak at different times.

Even the article you quoted has Berri saying that 31 year old Kobe was not significantly worse than 24 year old Kobe.

[europa]

I have some to kill before I take off so I'll play. What percentage of their career MVP awards did the following players win after age 24?

Bill Russell
Kareem
Jordan
Magic
LeBron

Everyone but Magic and Kareem won their first MVP at 24 and then others after. Magic won his first at 27 and Kareem won MVP at 23 and 24.

I cheated and used Wikipedia before I asked the question so I knew it was almost 100%.

And I believe an MVP award, while not being a statistical measure, is a reflection of a player's productivity. Few players get those awards for not producing at a high level. Granted, these are all-time greats I listed so their abilities were/are much higher than the typical player but it stands to reason that if those players all continued to perform well past age 24 it's not unrealistic that more common players can and will too. Hell, look at Mike Dunleavy. The second-highest FG% season of his career came at age 31 and that's the primary aspect he brings to a team. The highest TS% of his career came at age 27 (second-highest came at age 31) and his best EFG% came at age 30.

[Wooderson]

No idea. Although MVP voting has nothing to do with which year was a player's best.

Are there any examples of free agents of any value this year that had a peak after age 25?

David West for sure. And I think you could make a strong case for Iggy as well. A majority of the rest of they guys worth talking about are TBD. Once you get past 28/29, decline almost certainly sets in, and can be dramatic. But prior to that you can still play your best ball, or close to it, imo.

[MrPerfect1]

I would argue 24 for Iggy.

Great players do seem more likely to peak later or hold their lvl of play over other mere all stars or role players. However, it is worth noting that if you sign someone 25, if you think they will be improving significantly, or even any bit more than marginally the odds are against it.

(I also wouldn't be shocked if a Larry Sanders typed peaked later since he took up Basketball relatively later)

[europa]

Once you get past 28/29, decline almost certainly sets in, and can be dramatic. But prior to that you can still play your best ball, or close to it, imo.

I agree. I think for the typical NBA player their peak years would usually be from ages 24-27.

[ampd]

I would argue 24 for Iggy.

Great players do seem more likely to peak later or hold their lvl of play over other mere all stars or role players. However, it is worth noting that if you sign someone 25, if you think they will be improving significantly, or even any bit more than marginally the odds are against it.

(I also wouldn't be shocked if a Larry Sanders typed peaked later since he took up Basketball relatively later)

It is kind of a basketball urban legend that bigs tend to hit their peak later. Not sure how true it is, but since their game often relies less on pure athleticism, it would make sense that a marginal decline in athleticism from 26-32 would have a smaller effect on their performance. Sort analogous to how in the NFL running backs seem to hit a brick wall at 30 but offensive lineman don't.

I don't think we signed OJ Mayo because we think he is going to massively improve.

[europa]

It is kind of a basketball urban legend that bigs tend to hit their peak later. Not sure how true it is

Bogut's best season came at age 25. Obviously were it not for the elbow injury there's no telling what he could've done after that.

[coolhandluke121]

A mans physical prime is in his early to mid-20's. Assuming he picks up the nuances of the NBA game after a few seasons, clearly he's going to be at his best around age 25. That is so obvious that it shouldn't even be up for debate. Of course, many players keep adding more and more skills to their repertoire, and that can more than offset the inevitable slow and steady athletic decline. But that's a rare case because most greats learn the game early in their careers.

The reason players usually win titles and MVP's later than 25 is because they have better teams. Great players are usually acquired in the lottery, and it takes a while to build the supporting cast. Even in cases where a team was already respectable when they acquired a superstar, it takes time to build chemistry. Chemistry, experience, and superior supporting casts more than make up for very slight decreases in heroic individual ability.

[El Duderino]

A mans physical prime is in his early to mid-20's. Assuming he picks up the nuances of the NBA game after a few seasons, clearly he's going to be at his best around age 25. That is so obvious that it shouldn't even be up for debate. Of course, many players keep adding more and more skills to their repertoire, and that can more than offset the inevitable slow and steady athletic decline. But that's a rare case because most greats learn the game early in their careers.

I don't think it's that rare for the greats/HOF caliber players through history. A lot of them were still able to play at a great level at least until the age of 30.

Bird was great through age 31
Jordan through age 34
Barkley through age 32
Magic through age 31
Worthy through age 30
Moses Malone through age 31
McHale through age 32
Kareem mid to late 30's depending on how you view his production
Pippen through age 31
Karl Malone through mid-30's
Hakeem through age 33
Stockton through age 34
Dr. J through age 33

I could go on further, but just randomly picked guys i grew up watching that made the HOF. Great basketball players probably do peak physically around age 25, but a good percentage of them have been able to be just as good to at the very least age 30.