ROUND 1: AJ Johnson - Poll Added

[midranger]

When are we going to stop calling guys unique prospects because they’re 6’7” and can make plays off the dribble?

Especially when they’re 6’5

[machu46]

find me literally one person who had him in their top 32

I don't care if it's some other board's fotis... you probably can't

Vecenie had him 32, not that it matters at all.

he's the guy who had insider info

did he have him at 32 a week or two ago?

or only after he knew horst had fallen in love?

I found a mock from 3 months ago and he did not have him top 32

btw I meant big board not mock draft, not that I made that clear, or it matters at all

Vecenie two months ago:

https://www.nextstars.com.au/news/aj-johnson-shoots-up-draft-rankings (I have basically all the quotes below, but this is the link).

He had him #29 (#28 if we take out one of the guys that returned to school) on his big board at that point in time: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5382764/2024/04/19/nba-draft-big-board-stephon-castle-donovan-clingan-connecticut/?source=emp_shared_article

“Johnson’s ability to get to spots as a scorer in a fluid, on-balance manner is real. His jumper is mechanically sound, both off the catch and bounce … everything looks clean and pure enough to where Johnson should be a very high-level shooter down the road.”

“If he’s grown into that 6-7 range as it seems he has, it opens up many more avenues for his success. Instead of being more of a guard, it can realistically slide Johnson down to the wing at some point in his career, especially given his wingspan that appears to be something in the ballpark of 6-11.”

“Simons is a bit more explosive than Johnson, but Johnson is bigger and might have a bit more potential on the defensive end"

“Johnson is going to take time. But seeing him in-person multiple times, as well as in that pre-draft workout, it’s clear the frame was his biggest impediment to success this season.

“Once his frame catches up to his gifts, Johnson has all the tools he needs to be this draft’s interesting high-upside swing in the late first or early second round.”

[nagawicka]

So is Giannis upset that we didn’t draft him any weapons and we end up trading him to the Jets in 3 years?

Think of the haul coming back to MKE

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

a brandon jennings route to the league. his game gives me that major brandon jennings vibe too from the little clips.

i will admit i have no idea about the guy tho. drafts are so overrated. dumb to get bent about guys.

[msiris]

Bust.

[Licensed to Il]

It is weird how surprise picks like this divide the board in to “optimists” or “haters.”

I don’t love the pick, but his upside is exciting, and Ill be rooting for him.

He’s going to fill out. He will most likely raise his release point. Like a lot of wing and guard prospects, his success is going to come down to motor and defensive effort. I like his pedigree, though that sounds like dog show jargon.

[Brewhoopfan]

I am perfectly fine with this pick if the following happened:

1) Attempts were made to package the pick in a trade for backcourt defense.
2) The Bucks determined other players available were not going to help the team this year.
3) Attempts were made to trade up in the draft to get a player to help them this year.
4) The Bucks had intel that another team was taking Johnson before pick 33
5) The Bucks are 100% confident in the following: at least one young guys (AJG, Marjon, AJJ) can play a rotational role AND they can sign/trade for a quality shooting guard who can defend.

So, yeah, given the above (which, of course, we'll never know), I'm fine with swinging for the fences on this kid.

[DanoMac]

LOL these reactions. We gambled on a project with the 23rd pick in a weak draft. The pick (not the player) was very reminiscent of Giannis back in 2013. Get this kid some smoothies and see what we've got.

I like it way more than drafting another Beauchamp

[MVP2110]

Vecenie lists the Bucks as one of his biggest losers despite being one of the analysts highest on AJ Johnson

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5596025/2024/06/27/nba-draft-winners-losers-first-round-jazz-wizards-lakers?source=user-shared-article

I think I was probably higher on A.J. Johnson than anyone in the public sphere rating prospects, and I couldn’t get him any higher than No. 32 on my board. Even as a fan of Johnson, I think what the Bucks did tonight was substantially reach on a player that I consider to be a multi-year project while they’re in the middle of what they hope is a title chase in 2025. There were league sources on teams that I spoke with who did not see Johnson as draftable this year (others, like me, had him around the turn of the first round). It’s just a remarkable risk to take for a team that has had about as little success in the NBA Draft as any organization in the league since Jon Horst took over. The only one that is a bona fide hit is Donte DiVincenzo, and the organization gave up on him before he came into his own in Golden State and, especially this past season, in New York. Sam Merrill also qualifies as a hit, but they also gave up on him before he went on to become a lethal shooter in Cleveland’s rotation. The only real hit here is A.J. Green, an undrafted free agent who looks poised to potentially enter their rotation next season.
Johnson certainly represents a swing for the fences, at least. He’s a developmental scoring guard who has some serious wiggle and athleticism. Down the road, I think there are a lot of outcomes where he’s a positive player in the NBA. But he also was among the least productive players in the NBL over in Australia this past season. He’s under 170 pounds and nowhere near playing in the NBA. I had multiple front-office sources from other teams jokingly speculate to me that the Bucks took Johnson simply so Doc Rivers wouldn’t have to worry about playing a rookie in his first full season in charge in Milwaukee.
He’s going to require a lot of time and effort developmentally to reach his ceiling. Truly, I hope he gets it from the Bucks. I think Johnson can be a real player. But the Bucks’ track record over the last seven years hasn’t been particularly strong in that regard. It’s tough to buy into this as a sharp pick. It feels like the Bucks overthought this, especially when it’s likely Johnson would have been available at No. 33.

[jute2003]

He'll probably be a bust(can pick 23 really bust?) because 23 rarely actually becomes anything.

The athleticism and length are legit though.

Strong opinions about late 1st round picks...meh

[machu46]

Vecenie lists the Bucks as one of his biggest losers despite being one of the analysts highest on AJ Johnson

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5596025/2024/06/27/nba-draft-winners-losers-first-round-jazz-wizards-lakers?source=user-shared-article

I think I was probably higher on A.J. Johnson than anyone in the public sphere rating prospects, and I couldn’t get him any higher than No. 32 on my board. Even as a fan of Johnson, I think what the Bucks did tonight was substantially reach on a player that I consider to be a multi-year project while they’re in the middle of what they hope is a title chase in 2025. There were league sources on teams that I spoke with who did not see Johnson as draftable this year (others, like me, had him around the turn of the first round). It’s just a remarkable risk to take for a team that has had about as little success in the NBA Draft as any organization in the league since Jon Horst took over. The only one that is a bona fide hit is Donte DiVincenzo, and the organization gave up on him before he came into his own in Golden State and, especially this past season, in New York. Sam Merrill also qualifies as a hit, but they also gave up on him before he went on to become a lethal shooter in Cleveland’s rotation. The only real hit here is A.J. Green, an undrafted free agent who looks poised to potentially enter their rotation next season.
Johnson certainly represents a swing for the fences, at least. He’s a developmental scoring guard who has some serious wiggle and athleticism. Down the road, I think there are a lot of outcomes where he’s a positive player in the NBA. But he also was among the least productive players in the NBL over in Australia this past season. He’s under 170 pounds and nowhere near playing in the NBA. I had multiple front-office sources from other teams jokingly speculate to me that the Bucks took Johnson simply so Doc Rivers wouldn’t have to worry about playing a rookie in his first full season in charge in Milwaukee.
He’s going to require a lot of time and effort developmentally to reach his ceiling. Truly, I hope he gets it from the Bucks. I think Johnson can be a real player. But the Bucks’ track record over the last seven years hasn’t been particularly strong in that regard. It’s tough to buy into this as a sharp pick. It feels like the Bucks overthought this, especially when it’s likely Johnson would have been available at No. 33.

I will say a decent portion of this basically just reads as "The Bucks don't draft well so I think this was a bad pick" but yeah, the only real argument you can make in favor of the pick is that you hope he'll be good someday. There isn't really any logical reason to think he will be aside from the occasional flash play he makes. I do think there's some cool movement skills in there but he simply hasn't done much on the court to this point in his career.

I also don't necessarily buy the notion that "Milwaukee is trying to win a title this year so everything they do absolutely must be in pursuit of that" but I get the logic behind it.

[ajb905]

Bucks need cheap rotation players due to cap crunch, so while finding them in the draft is hard, it's one of the few avenues they have. I like tremendous upside potential as much as the next guy but if he's going to take 3 years to show something it's a wasted opportunity to either have someone help the team right away or be valuable trade bait for someone who can.

[Frank Nova]

With pretty much everyone I wanted at 23 off the board, I’m perfectly fine with this pick. Johnson is either Jalen Lecque or Anfernee Simons and I’m good with that.

This feels like the Thon/Brogdon draft repeating itself now. I have to assume the 3rd pick today is someone older and ready for 10-15mins RS game action in a few months.

Johnson on the other hand will not be that. Vegas should be fun tho, Johnson will likely be the lead guard and should excite. Johnson, Green and Jackson Jr. should be a good 1-3 for SL. AJs for days…

[sidney lanier]

You can never have too many AJs. Unless one is AJ Hawk.

[midranger]

For a bit of hope, consider this: AJ Johnson Jr. is younger than Rashad Vaughn and Rashad Vaughn is still quite young.

[RogerMurdock]

The good thing about this draft is we're almost to the point where I can point at one of these draft picks, turn to my kids, and say, "Look at him, he's as old as you are and is getting drafted into the NBA. When are you going to do something with your life?"

[Bernman]

Yeah, fair to dismiss the FT stuff with that small of a sample size. I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss how he hasn’t looked like he’s anywhere close to a competent basketball player outside of one scrimmage at the NBA Combine though. Long story short…

The other game, in spite of shooting 2-7, he had 6 assists, 0 TO's, & played good d. So I'd say it was just a good overall combine performance, excellent when you factor in age. And as I had pointed out at the time when talking about evals from the scrimmages, in recent history they have very good efficacy.

[SirChurros]

Bucks need cheap rotation players due to cap crunch, so while finding them in the draft is hard, it's one of the few avenues they have. I like tremendous upside potential as much as the next guy but if he's going to take 3 years to show something it's a wasted opportunity to either have someone help the team right away or be valuable trade bait for someone who can.

This is spot on.

I’d have no issue drafting a project at 23 if we had enough playable bodies on the roster, but we don’t. I just don’t see how you can pass on Shannon there. I would be pretty surprised if he isn’t giving Minnesota decent minutes off the bench by season’s end. He fit a need for us, too.

[Bernman]

I think my final conclusion is, if we were in the same position as in 2013, which this draft compares to, then I'd like the swing, to a lesser degree, than I liked the one for Giannis back in the day.

In '24, I wish we'd just gone the NBA ready route. I think next season it's going to look foolish we didn't just take Shannon, who has some star ability too, in spite of the age. But in the long run, AJJJ could conceivably be one of the best from this draft.

[soxperry]

Sometimes bad things just happen, and you just need to sit with it.

Just because something, in and of itself, is exciting and has upside, doesn't mean it was a smart decision given the overall goals if this team.

this was a bad, maybe very bad decision. Its fine. There's no need to divert into irrelevant bs. Maybe he will be a star someday. But that doesn't help us now in any way.