06/19 ESPN & DX.com Speculation

[NeedsMoreCheese]

The sad thing about this hypothetical Bogut for Roy thing is when you realize the Blazers have two guys that can play center that are better than Bogut.

[Wise1]

When people say:

but Bogut will probably be an 17-20ppg 10-12rpg 1.5-2.0 bpg center very soon.

my first two questions are

Is that FG and FT% going to increase along with that scoring average? How is Bogut going to do next to a PF that actually cares to hit the glass?

The rebounding rate and TS% are both disturbing, particularly if you think that Bogut's destined to be a main piece of a contender.

I've said that if he develops that offensive game he'll be outstanding. With a jumper and a couple reliable post moves I assume that he'll be a more efficient player and not a liability.

But he's had three damn years. What exactly has been stopping him from taking the needed steps to become a better player?

His own youth, inexperience and maturity issues to start. Remember he came out as a sophomore at a position that takes a guy 2-4 years to develop lest he's a phenom like Oneal, Ewing, Robinson or Duncan. The organization has been a complete joke top to bottom since Bogut has come into the league. When young people don't have structure and solid leadership, their worst attributes tend to surface.

I think Bogut is on the verge of hitting his stride. The team will undoubtly improve under the watch of Hammond/Skiles. As the entire team gets better, Bogut's all around game will improve as well.

To the Roy issue, Bogut is a center and Roy is a 2 guard. Both are above average at their positions so all things being equal, you take the center that can help defend your paint. The role of the 2 guard intuitively is to score. Your point guard should be the facilitator of the offense. With that being said, it's easier to find a 6-5/6-6 guy that can score and pass than a 7 foot guy that can score (albeit not as much Roy...but again this isn't Bogut's primary role), pass, rebound and DEFEND. I think Bogut is a great building block that just needs polish (better coaching and better teammates).

[NeedsMoreCheese]

When people say:

but Bogut will probably be an 17-20ppg 10-12rpg 1.5-2.0 bpg center very soon.

my first two questions are

Is that FG and FT% going to increase along with that scoring average? How is Bogut going to do next to a PF that actually cares to hit the glass?

The rebounding rate and TS% are both disturbing, particularly if you think that Bogut's destined to be a main piece of a contender.

I've said that if he develops that offensive game he'll be outstanding. With a jumper and a couple reliable post moves I assume that he'll be a more efficient player and not a liability.

But he's had three damn years. What exactly has been stopping him from taking the needed steps to become a better player?

His own youth, inexperience and maturity issues to start. Remember he came out as a sophomore at a position that takes a guy 2-4 years to develop lest he's a phenom like Oneal, Ewing, Robinson or Duncan. The organization has been a complete joke top to bottom since Bogut has come into the league. When young people don't have structure and solid leadership, their worst attributes tend to surface.

I think Bogut is on the verge of hitting his stride. The team will undoubtly improve under the watch of Hammond/Skiles. As the entire team gets better, Bogut's all around game will improve as well.

To the Roy issue, Bogut is a center and Roy is a 2 guard. Both are above average at their positions so all things being equal, you take the center that can help defend your paint. The role of the 2 guard intuitively is to score. Your point guard should be the facilitator of the offense. With that being said, it's easier to find a 6-5/6-6 guy that can score and pass than a 7 foot guy that can score (albeit not as much Roy...but again this isn't Bogut's primary role), pass, rebound and DEFEND. I think Bogut is a great building block that just needs polish (better coaching and better teammates).

Yeah i mean its not like he was billed as one of the most mature guys in his class, one of the most ready, one of the highest bball IQs

Wait......

[randy84]

[quote="paul"]

How would people react if in 2 years Mayo is a bust and Bogut is putting up 20/12/3/2.5 blocks? I mean, it's not like that's out of the realms of possibility, and the Bucks would quite literally not survive a mistake like that, things are shaky as they are. Those of us who were still fans of the Las Vegas Bucks would be lamenting another shocking decision by an organization famous for shocking decisions. Even if he never improves past his recent level, 16/10/3/2 centers who play good defense and are solid citizens don't exactly grow on trees. On the upside, Minny would have the best frontline in the league, by a fair way.[/quote]

I guess they would feel the same way people feel right now about passing up D.Williams and C.Paul for Bogut.

[paul]

How would people react if in 2 years Mayo is a bust and Bogut is putting up 20/12/3/2.5 blocks? I mean, it's not like that's out of the realms of possibility, and the Bucks would quite literally not survive a mistake like that, things are shaky as they are. Those of us who were still fans of the Las Vegas Bucks would be lamenting another shocking decision by an organization famous for shocking decisions. Even if he never improves past his recent level, 16/10/3/2 centers who play good defense and are solid citizens don't exactly grow on trees. On the upside, Minny would have the best frontline in the league, by a fair way.

I guess they would feel the same way people feel right now about passing up D.Williams and C.Paul for Bogut.

They would feel a whole lot worse than that Randy, cause as good as CP and Deron are Bogut is no bust, or even close to a bust. We'd love either of those other two guys, but it's not like we got the booby prize.

[wichmae]

well things right now hinge on alot.

Specifically what Miami is going to do.

I still maintain that there will be a draft day deal done....

If there isnt (which I think there will be) we have made a promise from my understanding to a player at 8.

[paulpressey25]

Specifically what Miami is going to do.

So if Miami takes Beasley, and Mayo is left at three is the assumption that Minny will trade out of that pick?

[worthlessBucks]

Specifically what Miami is going to do.

So if Miami takes Beasley, and Mayo is left at three is the assumption that Minny will trade out of that pick?

Backwards I think, McHale is rumored to not be interested in Beasley, despite the awesome combination that Beasley/Jefferson make.

Promise was made to either Alexander or Randolph. I'd only say Alexander, but Randolph out to dinner w/ Bucks brass makes me think it was him.

[paulpressey25]

Backwards I think, McHale is rumored to not be interested in Beasley, despite the awesome combination that Beasley/Jefferson make..

So if Riley thinks the Wade/Mayo backcourt is what he wants then you think McHale doesn't want to go near Beasley? So that would be our target per Wichmae's trade notes above? I'm trying to see how Miami impacts what we do, unless we are trying to trade for Marion or trade into the number 3 slot. (Or trade for HASLEM)

This Tuesday Shawn Marion has to decide whether to opt out of the last year on his deal. It will be interesting to see what he does. He can opt out and have a new deal set up with the Heat. Or opt out and test the waters. Or stay in his current deal at $17.8mm this year.

[Wise1]

Backwards I think, McHale is rumored to not be interested in Beasley, despite the awesome combination that Beasley/Jefferson make..

So if Riley thinks the Wade/Mayo backcourt is what he wants then you think McHale doesn't want to go near Beasley? So that would be our target per Wichmae's trade notes above? I'm trying to see how Miami impacts what we do, unless we are trying to trade for Marion or trade into the number 3 slot. (Or trade for HASLEM)

This Tuesday Shawn Marion has to decide whether to opt out of the last year on his deal. It will be interesting to see what he does. He can opt out and have a new deal set up with the Heat. Or opt out and test the waters. Or stay in his current deal at $17.8mm this year.

Interesting stuff. I'd be willing to bet that the Bucks have at least inquired about the possibility of acquiring Marion. However, with Marion's history of brooding I doubt if he'd be happy to leave South Beach to come to Milwaukee. If Marion doesn't approve, I doubt if the Bucks would consider trading for him since he can bolt after next year without an extension/new deal.

As far as who Miami will select at #2, I suspect that they'll draft Mayo over Beasley. In that scenario, I don't see the Bucks trading up to 3 for Beasley and I don't see Miami trading Mayo for anything less than Bogut. We'd probably be resigned to drafting our promise player...Randolph...at 8, keeping Redd and moving Mo and CV to the highest bidder as soon as possible. Perhaps Cleveland takes Mo for the #19. That still would be a great move for the Cavs and would give the Bucks an opportunity to add another young prospect.

Speaking of moving Mo and CV asap, Dallas has no real insurance behind the aging Kidd. If Cleveland doesn't bite on Mo, perhaps a Mo/CV for Josh Howard deal could be worked out.

[carmelbrownqueen]

It's not unusal for Bucks brass to take a player out to dinner after a workout, actually that's typically part of their process for first round picks from my understanding.

Also, I will take a guess at why what we do hinges on what Miami does in the draft. Miami is a rebuilding team that has two primary needs that could be filled via the draft.. they need a PG and a PF. Unless Chicago does the unexpected and drafts Beasley ahead of Rose, then they aren't getting Rose with the second pick in the draft. If the Bulls take Rose as many suspect then that leaves Beasley on the board as the next pick in most people's minds. Riley doesn't care for Beasley's personality and seems far more impressed with Mayo, so if they go against the grain and take Mayo ahead of Beasley then Minny gets a big present (one they want very badly in Beasley). If that happens no deal will happen with Minny most likely (is my guess) because they will have gotten what they wanted. If Miami takes Beasley, then perhaps Minny will be more inclined to trade the pick and move down to 8 to take another player of interest (supposedly Gallinari).

I think Miami might be then in the market for a PG and will start seriouslly talking to Chicago, Milwaukee and Toronto about their available guards. It seems what Miami does will affect how willing to deal a few teams (Minny and Memphis perhaps) are to prospective deals.. We might be able to move up to 3 or perhaps stay at 8 or perhaps even make a deal for the 5th pick.

[worthlessBucks]

I know it's not an uncommon practice to wine and dine them, but since it was such a small portion of players being worked out for our 8th pick and the fact that we don't have any other interesting nuggets, it's the best I've got and I'll run with it. Conspiracy theory aside, my gut tells me Alexander is likely the guy Skiles and Hammond. Toughness, unbelievably athletic, saying all the right things in the predraft process, skilled but still newer to the game, leaving plenty of upside, and he seems eager to play here. Granted Alexander has been marketing himself well in every city he's worked out for, saying all the right things.

[Captain Erv]

well things right now hinge on alot.

Specifically what Miami is going to do.

I still maintain that there will be a draft day deal done....

If there isnt (which I think there will be) we have made a promise from my understanding to a player at 8.

I don't know if this has been mentioned at all, but Andy Katz was on SportsCenter earlier tonight and said that Joe Alexander really would like to play for the Bucks. My guess, as I assume is many others, that he is the player we may have made that promise to.

[Wise1]

Well, if last offseason was an indication then Miami has GREAT interest in Mo Williams. I see Rose going #1 and Miami taking Mayo #2. If the Bucks want Mayo, Riley probably tries to strong arm the Bucks into surrendering both Mo and Bogut while throwing in a guy like Haslem.

Mo
Wade
Marion
Anyone,Marion
Bogut

That's a pretty good team there. If the Bucks moved Bogut, they'd almost HAVE to take Lopez at 8. They'd also have to accomodate Mayo and figure out how to get Redd to Cleveland for their pick and players. Hopefully, Very Joe comes in that package leaving Milwaukee with...

Sessions, Bell
Mayo, Mason
Simmons, Randolph
Haslem, CV, Yi
Lopez, Very Joe, (#19)

The Bucks certainly wouldn't be as good offensively, but their core defense improves and that's the foundation that Skiles probably wants to build his team around. Solid defense. Financially, the team would also be in much better shape.

[bango_the_buck]

well things right now hinge on alot.

Specifically what Miami is going to do.

I still maintain that there will be a draft day deal done....

If there isnt (which I think there will be) we have made a promise from my understanding to a player at 8.

Sweet! Thanks wichmae!

I don't see Miami taking Mayo at #2. I'm fairly certain they take Beasley and either keep him or trade him to Memphis if Mayo were to somehow to slip to #5. If Minny louses up that scenario by taking Mayo, I see the next four picks going Bayless, Love, Westbrook, and Gordon. That would leave either Lopez or Gallinari at #8, whichever the Wolves prefer. Hopefully the deal isn't contingent on Love being available at #8, as I don't see him slipping past #5 (if it were, maybe we could do the proposed #5/Warrick for #8/CV deal, assuming CV isn't part of the package to move up). If things don't work out, the promise is probably to Alexander...

[Wise1]

well things right now hinge on alot.

Specifically what Miami is going to do.

I still maintain that there will be a draft day deal done....

If there isnt (which I think there will be) we have made a promise from my understanding to a player at 8.

I don't know if this has been mentioned at all, but Andy Katz was on SportsCenter earlier tonight and said that Joe Alexander really would like to play for the Bucks. My guess, as I assume is many others, that he is the player we may have made that promise to.

I don't think Alexandar has the promise. If he did, why is he still campaigning? If a team gives a guy a promise, it would stand to reason that they'd tell him to not draw attention to their mutual interest since some other team could take the player or try to bluff the promise team into giving up an asset to secure "their guy".

Meanwhile, we haven't heard a peep out of Randolph. Perhaps he isn't the promise guy (Love) but he certainly fits the profile better by remaining silent.

[TheMachine]

Here's my guess on the scenario that is unfolding:

-If Miami takes Beasley:

-Minnesota is offering a package of #3/Walker/Jaric to the highest bidder.

-Right now that is Milwaukee who is offering #8/Redd.
(some Bucks fans are then disappointed that this is a move made for the future, and that this is all they get for Redd).

-Unless someone gets desperate for #3 and offers more, this is what Minnesota will take.
Bucks take Mayo at #3.
T-wolves will then take Lopez at #8.

-If Miami takes Mayo at #2 all bets are off.

The 2 variables in play at this time are 1) what will happen with Miami and #2? 2) Will anyone outbid Milwaukee for pick #3 if Mayo is still on the board?

There is a fairly good chance that on Thursday night OJ Mayo will be a Buck and Mike Redd will not.

[bango_the_buck]

If he did, why is he still campaigning?

When has he recently (publicly) campaigned to be drafted by the Bucks? I don't think he has. The media just keeps bringing up his earlier comments and sees him as a good fit in Milwaukee.

[bango_the_buck]

And Randolph is reportedly falling like a rock because of the poor conditioning/intensity level he's showing in workouts.

[Wise1]

Here's my guess on the scenario that is unfolding:

-If Miami takes Beasley:

-Minnesota is offering a package of #3/Walker/Jaric to the highest bidder.

-Right now that is Milwaukee who is offering #8/Redd.
(some Bucks fans are then disappointed that this is a move made for the future, and that this is all they get for Redd).

-Unless someone gets desperate for #3 and offers more, this is what Minnesota will take.
Bucks take Mayo at #3.
T-wolves will then take Lopez at #8.

-If Miami takes Mayo at #2 all bets are off.

The 2 variables in play at this time are 1) what will happen with Miami and #2? 2) Will anyone outbid Milwaukee for pick #3 if Mayo is still on the board?

There is a fairly good chance that on Thursday night OJ Mayo will be a Buck and Mike Redd will not.

I can totally buy this. In fact Redd and 8 for #3 was my sig not too long ago. If the Wolves coveted Lopez and Redd, I think they'd still draft Mayo and have Milwaukee draft Lopez if he's still available. Then the trade will be made.

Redd and 8 is pretty steep. I'd also ask for Minny's second rounder. But then again, Hammond did hint at many folks being disappointed by the lack of perceived value that the Bucks would receive for certain players.