'14 Draft Thread - Now With a Poll: VOTE OR DIE.

[LUKE23]

Thabeet was never high ceiling either.

[bigkurty]

Its funny you used Gordon as an example. He's probably the most likely to bust of any plater projected in the top 6-7.

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To me, Gordon has the same exact potential 2 games into his college career as Blake Griffin or Michael Beasley. He is the same exact type of player basically. I honestly just hope to God we get a top 3 pick and take these 4-8 guys out of it. They all could be all stars but maybe 1 out of 5 of them probably ends up a real game changer. Most likely 1-2 out of Wiggins, Parker, or Randle end up being superstars. I like those odds a lot better.

All things being equal though, these discussions are all premature. A year ago, mclemore was projected in the 20's and Noel was #1 and we know where they ended up. And no one would have predicted Bennett at #1 and he looks like a bust so far.

[LUKE23]

That's all true, but you can't really compare the 2013 and 2014 drafts. Completely different animals and different groups of prospects. Last years draft was rare in the fact that it had no sure fire superstars at the top, but was pretty deep for rotation players. That's how it was predicted in advance too. Nobody liked the 2013 draft that much. People have been talking about the 2014 draft for a couple years, based on the profiles of the guys at the top.

[emunney]

If you get too fancy and look solely for upside in the top 5 you end up with the Anthony Bennett's or Hasheem Thabeets of the world more times than not.

Like not act like "NBA ready" college talent has translated perfectly.

It hasn't sure but they don't seem to bust nearly as hard. A guy who is 19 and dominating college against good competition seems to have a floor of a decent journeyman / role player for a lot of years. A guy who is a physical specimen can just suck completely and be out of the league in no time. Let me guess, you and Luke like Embiid and Harrison and Exum in your top 6 over Smart and Gordon.

Smart was Big 12 PoY as a freshman, so there's something to the argument that he's dominated against good college competition. But Gordon? What has he done that gives him a much stronger track record than Embiid or Exum?

[bizarro]

All things being equal though, these discussions are all premature. A year ago, mclemore was projected in the 20's and Noel was #1 and we know where they ended up. And no one would have predicted Bennett at #1 and he looks like a bust so far.

Nobody other than Cleveland had Bennett pegged as a #1 either - book it. An inexplicable pick. Cleveland and Kahn should really get together. That's the next evolution for their scouting and talent acquisition juggernaut.

[bigkurty]

Like not act like "NBA ready" college talent has translated perfectly.

It hasn't sure but they don't seem to bust nearly as hard. A guy who is 19 and dominating college against good competition seems to have a floor of a decent journeyman / role player for a lot of years. A guy who is a physical specimen can just suck completely and be out of the league in no time. Let me guess, you and Luke like Embiid and Harrison and Exum in your top 6 over Smart and Gordon.

Smart was Big 12 PoY as a freshman, so there's something to the argument that he's dominated against good college competition. But Gordon? What has he done that gives him a much stronger track record than Embiid or Exum?

What has Embiid done? Look at this:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... oel-embiid

I'm confused. It's a small sample size but a guy being touted as a top 7 pick in one of the best drafts in recent years should be doing a lot better than that. Frank Kaminsky could put up those stats in his first two games as a frosh I am pretty sure. Do you guys all watch a ton of high school games or something. How can anyone be so high on a guy like Embiid this early on IMO? I hope he proves me wrong in the coming weeks but right now I am not impressed.

[bigkurty]

By comparison
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... ron-gordon
Those are impressive numbers early on minus the FT's

[LUKE23]

It's based on his physical profile, obviously. If we're going to draft based solely on college stats, Doug McDermott needs to be moved into the top 5. That's before we even get into the fact it's been like 3 games.

Also, for a guy that seems hung up on college stats, it is odd to me that you're as high on Smart as you are. He's been brutal so far. 3.3 assists/2.7 TO, .525 TS. And they haven't played anyone.

[emunney]

It hasn't sure but they don't seem to bust nearly as hard. A guy who is 19 and dominating college against good competition seems to have a floor of a decent journeyman / role player for a lot of years. A guy who is a physical specimen can just suck completely and be out of the league in no time. Let me guess, you and Luke like Embiid and Harrison and Exum in your top 6 over Smart and Gordon.

Smart was Big 12 PoY as a freshman, so there's something to the argument that he's dominated against good college competition. But Gordon? What has he done that gives him a much stronger track record than Embiid or Exum?

What has Embiid done? Look at this:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... oel-embiid

I'm confused. It's a small sample size but a guy being touted as a top 7 pick in one of the best drafts in recent years should be doing a lot better than that. Frank Kaminsky could put up those stats in his first two games as a frosh I am pretty sure. Do you guys all watch a ton of high school games or something. How can anyone be so high on a guy like Embiid this early on IMO? I hope he proves me wrong in the coming weeks but right now I am not impressed.

If Frank Kaminsky could have done that, why didn't Frank Kaminsky do it? Is Frank Kaminsky being coy?

Embiid is a very big, very fluid mover with great hands and very surprising feel and vision. Has Frank Kaminsky ever had 5 assists in a game? Because Embiid did it in his 2nd collegiate game in 20 minutes against the #5 team in the country.

So what did you see from Gordon against San Diego State, Long Beach State and Cal Poly that makes you so sure about him? And what makes that more valid than what people saw out of Embiid against Duke?

[Baddy Chuck]

After Andre Drummond's first 5 college games were you writing him off as well?

[bizarro]

By comparison
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... ron-gordon
Those are impressive numbers early on minus the FT's

It's not all roses with Gordon either. Obviously, his athleticism jumps out w/ the FG% and Rebounds. But, look at the competition. FT percentage is woeful. Obviously, LA Monroe is nothing to write home about for KU. But, in the Duke game Embiid jumped out. His passing, soft hands, and his fluidity for a man his size has to be extremely intriguing for NBA scouts. Size means everything - regardless of what some people think

And, to add a little bit. Most scouts have Gordon ahead of Embiid. And, rightfully so generally. Embiid is extremely raw. But it's his rawness that intrigues most scouts because he's only played 3 years! Think about that and then watch his court vision. Watch his hands. And, watch his agility. He has undeniable natural ability. Couple that with his 7'5" wingspan and 240-250 lb. frame and you can obviously see the intrigue. There are concerns, yes. He has had back spasm issues (sound familiar...eeeek!). But, he's played through them. He's shown the occasional ability to knock down a long jumper or two as well - notice he took a 3 in the Duke game (I'm not condoning this development, by the way).

I honestly don't know if Embiid even declares, however. Given his nature as a project and given KU's ability to develop big men I see his growth in a similar fashion as Hibbert's. I think Embiid may just stay for his sophomore and/or junior year. I'll probably eat crow on this, but I'm saying it in a way because I think the sky's the limit for this kid and I'd hate too see him leave to early.

[ampd]

Thabeet was never high ceiling either.

A lot of people thought Thabeet would be what Roy Hibbert is

[Kerb Hohl]

Thabeet was never high ceiling either.

A lot of people thought Thabeet would be what Roy Hibbert is

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Thabeet seen as a Mutombo guy at absolute best while Hibbert...I don't know, who to compare him to, but a guy that is solid all around, can pass the ball in the post/at the top of the key, and hit a few mid range shots? Rik Smits maybe?

I guess in stature, we could say that most people would predict that a good scenario for both of them would be 4-5 All Star games, but they are different players. Maybe you were conveying that, I don't know.

[ampd]

Thabeet was never high ceiling either.

A lot of people thought Thabeet would be what Roy Hibbert is

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Thabeet seen as a Mutombo guy at absolute best while Hibbert...I don't know, who to compare him to, but a guy that is solid all around, can pass the ball in the post/at the top of the key, and hit a few mid range shots? Rik Smits maybe?

I guess in stature, we could say that most people would predict that a good scenario for both of them would be 4-5 All Star games, but they are different players. Maybe you were conveying that, I don't know.

I suppose that is true. I more meant what Hibbert is in the NBA as far as being a guy who protects the rim and uses his size to rebound and overpower smaller guys offensively. Not as much what they were viewed like as prospects since Hibbert was obviously pretty underrated there.

I do agree they are different offensively though, and Motumbo is a much better comparison for what the Grizz were hoping for.

[Matches Malone]

Going back to the Smart debate, I think he is a pretty nice player but overall I think he would be 4th on my point guard rankings at the moment. I have him behind Exum, Harrison and Christon. Honestly, I think Smart ends up playing off the ball in the NBA, but that's just my two cents.

[Matches Malone]

What do you guys think of Noah Vonleh out of Indiana? 6'10 SF/PF. I think he has a chance to crack the top 10 when it's all said and done.

[TroyD92]

I actually don't think Vonleh is going to come out this year.

[ReasonablySober]

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Smart ended up being the best overall PG in this class.

[emunney]

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Smart ended up being the best overall PG in this class.

He's a hell of an athlete, so it shouldn't necessarily be a shock, but he needs the most skill development of any of these guys.

[Ron Swanson]

I don't care what anyone says, I like Smart better than Exum right now. This board has a tendency to overrate "upside" and underrate the "sure thing." Plus Smart is a better facilitator and defender.

Totally agree. And Smart is just 19 too. I don't know how people like Exum so much when they can't even watch him play any games. Same goes for Embiid. The dude hasn't done **** so I don't get the love. If he doesn't start doing anything soon, he will plummet on draft boards. My top 5 right now is Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Smart, Gordon. If you get too fancy and look solely for upside in the top 5 you end up with the Anthony Bennett's or Hasheem Thabeets of the world more times than not. If a guy is going to be a superstar, 9 times of of ten, he is going to kick ass in college. Late bloomers that turn into stars are just too rare to gamble on IMO.

On the contrary, I think if you look too much into college stats and the "safe, established player", you end up drafting guys like Evan Turner, Michael Beasley, and Adam Morrison just as often. Talent rules in the NBA, so in my opinion, you always pick the player with the most upside, regardless of position or fit.

How many GMs are kicking themselves for letting Andre Drummond fall out of the top 5? How high would Giannis have gone if they did a redraft, considering how much promise he's shown thus far? Remember when Orlando picked the raw, "potential" guy in Dwight Howard over the "sure-thing" guy that dominated college in Emeka Okafor? The way I see it, Marcus Smart could be an All-Star for us, but Dante Exum could be a superstar for us. I'll take the increased risk (Exum) in the hope that we get a much bigger payoff, because everyone agrees we need to not only "hit" on our pick this year, but we need to hit it big.