ATL - LMA retires with heart issue - pg 78

[emunney]

Hopefully Brogdon doesn't land anywhere he can hurt us. Strong potential for that.

Boston? Clips?

How about Philly if they can't get Lowry?

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

You "have to blow it up" when you've reached a breaking point, a doomsday scenario. That's not at all where Indiana is right now.

If Indy wants to take the next step, they absolutely need to blow it up. There is zero superstar potential on that roster, and the front office can see it. And being a small market, they are carrying a $125mm payroll this year, with likely much lower revenues coming in the door.

I don't really get this. They're finding the next Mitchell in the teens away from competing. Like if they decided to blow it up fine but they could continue competing for the 8th seeds while gradually improving the talent level.

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

[Bucksfan28]

Hopefully Brogdon doesn't land anywhere he can hurt us. Strong potential for that.

Boston? Clips?

How about Philly if they can't get Lowry?

Considered that as well. Would be an excellent fit.

[paulpressey25]

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

I think I can win if Brogdon is my 3rd or 4th best player. But I don't think Sabonis nor Turner (or LeVert or Warren) are ahead of him on the value chart. Brogdon is literally their #1 IMHO.

And while I love the "value" that Sabonis presents and wish we had him over Thon, he's a stats whore, whose numbers are prettier than his impact.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

I think I can win if Brogdon is my 3rd or 4th best player. But I don't think Sabonis nor Turner (or LeVert or Warren) are ahead of him on the value chart. Brogdon is literally their #1 IMHO.

And while I love the "value" that Sabonis presents and wish we had him over Thon, he's a stats whore, whose numbers are prettier than his impact.

I was more debating how wise the Kohl strategy of competing and hoping you hit on guy in the late teens is. It is REALLY REALLY hard to get an impact player that low.

[paulpressey25]

I was more debating how wise the Kohl strategy of competing and hoping you hit on guy in the late teens is. It is REALLY REALLY hard to get an impact player that low.

The ironic part is that all I wanted from Kohl was this current Indy level of competence (48 wins and second round playoffs). And he was never able to deliver that, save for 2001.

[emunney]

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

I think I can win if Brogdon is my 3rd or 4th best player. But I don't think Sabonis nor Turner (or LeVert or Warren) are ahead of him on the value chart. Brogdon is literally their #1 IMHO.

And while I love the "value" that Sabonis presents and wish we had him over Thon, he's a stats whore, whose numbers are prettier than his impact.

I think Turner is probably their most valuable guy as a top shelf rim protector who can shoot a little, though obviously not as well as he's been idealized. But he's got no ability to create offense whatsoever, so he can only be so valuable. Agree with your assessment overall -- they've got 4 #3s, which is good for maybe 50 wins with perfect health, which their guys have never had.

[Ron Swanson]

Yeah, look at their payroll situation. Indiana has a lot of "nice/solid" guys locked up, but that can be a problem when you only have fringe All-Star talent at best. LeVert, Warren, Brogdon, Sabonis, and Turner just isn't anything better than a mid-40s win core. They're in no-man's land right now and need to start seriously thinking about blowing it all up in the offseason. Turner and Sabonis are really the only "young" guys and they're in their 5th and 6th seasons respectively. They're good players but not much untapped potential there. Everyone should be on the table for lottery picks.

[DingleJerry]

Best Indy trade I can come up with is Brook for Turner based. Tack on Forbes to make it work then try for an Ellington type Forbers replacement. Of course all we have to add on to entice them is picks, which probably isn't enough. Need a 3rd team involved who can more use Brook. I don't think this trade is feasible right now. But something I'd have an eye on the offseason as Indy has to do something about the Turner/Sabonis pairing.

[WeekapaugGroove]

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Cool chart. Yikes houston

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[WeekapaugGroove]

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

I think I can win if Brogdon is my 3rd or 4th best player. But I don't think Sabonis nor Turner (or LeVert or Warren) are ahead of him on the value chart. Brogdon is literally their #1 IMHO.

And while I love the "value" that Sabonis presents and wish we had him over Thon, he's a stats whore, whose numbers are prettier than his impact.

I was more debating how wise the Kohl strategy of competing and hoping you hit on guy in the late teens is. It is REALLY REALLY hard to get an impact player that low.

I think every situation is unique with this. Like for Indi it's been like 5+ years of basically stuck in that same spot so I get why they would consider shaking things up. But even if they do I doubt they go full burn it to the ground style.

I used to be in the pro tank crowd but my view on that's shifted some. People love to throw around the word treadmill but the treadmill that's easiest to get stuck on is the one where you just suck forever. Do that and you lose a generation of fans. Top picks bust a lot and even when you hit on one if you're a terrible team that one good guys gets sick of losing quickly. Heck some of my view change might just be getting older and having less patience for actually watching bad teams in any sport and dreaming about draft picks.

Market matters too, much different team building strategy depending if your a destination market.

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[skones]

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

I don't think they're as rare as you may think off of the top of your head. I think 10 or later is probably more realistic than 15, especially with where they are this season. I went back into some drafts:

2009: Jrue Holiday (17),
2010: Paul George (10), Eric Bledsoe (18),
2011: Klay Thompson (11), Kawhi Leonard (15), Nikola Vucevic (16), Tobias Harris (19), Jimmy Butler (30), Bojan Bogdanovic (31), Isaiah Thomas (60)
2012: Draymond Green (35), Khris Middleton (39),
2013: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15), Rudy Gobert (27),
2014: Zach Lavine (13), Jusuf Nurkic (16), Jerami Grant (39), Nikola Jokic (41),
2015: Myle Turner (11), Devin Booker (13), Terry Rozier (16),
2016: Domantas Sabonis (11), Pascal Siakam (27), Malcolm Brogdon (36),
2017: Donavon Mitchell (13), Bam Adebayo (14), John Collins (19), Jarrett Allen (22)

The odds aren't really favorable in the draft period, and you need a little luck, but there are finds almost every year. 25 all-stars this season, 10 of them taken after pick 10. They happen. Hell, our "hard rebuild" with Jabari flopped. Giannis was drafted after Bucks in 6 and Middleton came in the band-aid Knight/Jennings swap.

[LuessiT]

If Indy wants to take the next step, they absolutely need to blow it up. There is zero superstar potential on that roster, and the front office can see it. And being a small market, they are carrying a $125mm payroll this year, with likely much lower revenues coming in the door.

I don't really get this. They're finding the next Mitchell in the teens away from competing. Like if they decided to blow it up fine but they could continue competing for the 8th seeds while gradually improving the talent level.

Is that realistic, though? What are the odds of drafting an all-star 15 or later? 1 in 30? There might be one guy that moves the needle like Mitchell in any draft that falls to 15 or below. You can think you are an above average drafter, but even then the odds arent favorable.

It's not likely that's for sure. My point is you don't have to hard rebuild to add talent. And even if you hard rebuild you're not guaranteed to reach the top (just look at the Wolves - who had lottery luck too).

[skones]

Best Indy trade I can come up with is Brook for Turner based. Tack on Forbes to make it work then try for an Ellington type Forbers replacement. Of course all we have to add on to entice them is picks, which probably isn't enough. Need a 3rd team involved who can more use Brook. I don't think this trade is feasible right now. But something I'd have an eye on the offseason as Indy has to do something about the Turner/Sabonis pairing.

We don't have anywhere near what it'd take to go from Brook to Turner, regardless of what the think of the Turner/Sabonis pairing. Any offer we put together would be easily beat by other teams. Anyway, I like Turner, I just don't think he's the route I'd take for a long term 5. I want more switch-ability.

[BigO]

I think the Bucks coach and front office love Brook Lopez, despite the coach and Brook shouting at each other at last nights game. He is a great at the defense Bud is enamored with, despite being a liability in any other defense. So I see no way they trade him.

[skones]

I think the Bucks coach and front office love Brook Lopez, despite the coach and Brook shouting at each other at last nights game. He is a great at the defense Bud is enamored with, despite being a liability in any other defense. So I see no way they trade him.

They've basketballed more than you have been alive tho

[BroncoBuck]

I thought TT would be a solid buy low guy this past FA.

Boy oh boy was I wrong (he was also paid way too much). KOC and Verno just went in on him today. Sheesh. Guy just doesn’t care anymore

[Baddy Chuck]

Pacers blowing it up could actually be really smart. Despite having a lot of good pieces they never really seem that close.

[emunney]

Pacers blowing it up could actually be really smart. Despite having a lot of good pieces they never really seem that close.

I'd probably want to do it in the offseason when I could have a little more certainty about what I was getting, though. Guess it depends on what offers they get.

[Matches Malone]

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