Bernman wrote:old skool wrote:Bernman wrote:
That's not true. If he was a lower 1st, and his coach was stupid to not play him more even though he was their best net rating guy on the team outside their superstar, fans of all teams wouldn't view him a bust.
Heck, Battier posted 8/4/1 his 3rd yr, after being picked 6th, and he wasn't viewed as a bust. Just a winning low-usage 3&d guy, similar to how most our fans rightly view Green.
Good catch on Battier, but his contribution made sense in that low scoring era. Battier's 8.5 ppg in his age 25 season made more sense playing on a team averaging 96.7 ppg.
Green averaging 7.4 ppg, with low assist and rebound numbers is a lot less impressive on a Bucks team averaging 115.5 ppg.
I like A.J. Green. I root for him and I appreciate his valuable contributions. But I view him with tempered enthusiasm because he is primarily a great 3-point shooter who struggles to create for himself or others and whose productivity and efficiency declines as his minutes played increases and his defensive role expands. Green had a great series against the Pacers, but that was a small 5 game sample size. I don't see him ever being more than a solid 3-point option off the bench.
If he played w/ top-level creators who start, like Giannis, wouldn't that logically make them more effective, as shown by their team best +15 net rating together? That would indicate he's a solid 3&d option as a starter. It's a matter of doing it finally, like in game 5.
A lot of stats, like points scored in Game 5 or best 2-man combo, are snapshot perspectives into the team as a whole. They have value, but less value than an overall assessment. I'm not sure what overall conclusions can be drawn from a Game 5 where Green scores 19, Trent Jr scores 30, or a RS game where Connaughton puts up 43/10/5.
Will Green ever be more than a Steve Kerr equivalent? Can he blossom into a #3 scorer with solid defense? That would be great. But his counting stats history would suggest such a jump is unlikely. Last season per 36 minutes among Bucks who played a minimum of 500 minutes Green was 10th in ppg, 12th in rpg & 11 in apg. In those key areas, lots of Bucks players were more productive offensively over an entire season.
Green deserves more playing time, but his minutes jump last season was accompanied by a reduction in per 36 minutes stats. The biggest Bucks roster problem, imo, is the lack of a go-to scorer. For all his flaws, Lillard could handle that role. That is not Giannis' strength. Maybe KPJ??? Green? Probably not. Probably just a solid 3&D off the bench, ala Steve Kerr. Thus my tempered enthusiasm.
