1/12/2009 Woelfel: Conley deal waiting for Herb (poll added)

[Sigra]

I wasn't a Conley guy heading into the 2007 draft. In fact I was against drafting him. I thought he'd be a good starting point guard in this league but I didn't think he'd be a star. With that being said, I like him is a player a hell of a lot more than I do Sessions at this point.

When I watch Sessions run this team it makes me want to pull my hair out, and I have long freaking hair. Ridnour runs an offense, he promotes ball movement. He makes an effort to get guys involved and spread the ball around. When I watch Sessions play I don't feel that he's doing that AT ALL. I see a score first combo guard who happens to be solid at passing. I was very optimistic with regards to Sessions earlier this season given his April last year, but I have since soured. The guy dribbles, dribbles, dribbles, and runs around the floor on offense. He looks for his shot first and when he doesn't see it, he makes a last ditch effort to set somebody up. It's like he's Mo but instead of shooting jumpers, he gets into the lane. I'm not saying that's not a valuable commodity in this league, but I don't think it fits AT ALL what we're trying to do here. I DON'T think he'll be an all-star. I think he's destined to be a starting point guard on a bad team or a good backup on a good team. Period.

With Conley you get a guy who was highly regarded a year and a few short months ago. He's almost a full year younger than Alexander and his scouting reports and projections point to a guy that Skiles and Hammond really seem to like in this situation. I also like how Conley knows how to play with a big man. He played with Oden for how many years? The guy will look to get Bogut involved and will likely get the ball to him in some pretty damn good spots. Also, here's some food for thought, Conley played with Gasol for exactly one month last season. In that month, he posted his best numbers notching 10.3 points, 3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals and 2 TO's on 44% from the field and 71% from the line.

Some point guards who posted lackluster rookie campaigns:
Deron Williams
Steve Nash
Jose Calderon
Baron Davis
Rajon Rondo
Chauncey Billups
Tony Parker
Devin Harris

I realize the majority of those guys had better sophomore seasons than Conley up to this point but it's food for thought nonetheless.

+1

Very Good Post

[Jollay]

Just want to reiterate that I love these "imminent" trade threads.

[paulpressey25]

Just want to reiterate that I love these "imminent" trade threads.

I think the last 50% chance this has of still happening has to happen today. Otherwise it is 100% dead IMHO.

I can't buy the notion that somehow a major trade like this would be held up for four or five days to see if Joe Alexander earns a spot in the dunk contest. Just like I was not persuaded that the CV-Carl Landry trade would be held up four or five days so that the teams could simply exchange players while the Bucks were in Houston for a game thus making logistics easier.

[LUKE23]

This deal either needs to just happen or we need to know it's dead.

[LUKE23]

Interesting read from a Memphis blog, this guy apparently has connections:

http://cmimemphis.com/grizblog/node/437

I’m coming in a little late on this one — too busy writing about hip-hop biopics and Jewish resistance movies — but let’s backtrack to see where we are on the current rumor of Mike Conley to the Milwaukee Bucks.

The first related report came from my radio colleague Chris Vernon last week, who reported a tip that he received about the Grizzlies having interest in Bucks rookie forward Joe Alexander.

Then, yesterday, the Commercial Appeal’s Ron Tillery fleshed this out by reporting a potential trade that would have Conley going to the Bucks for Alexander and second-year point guard Ramon Sessions.

Today, a Wisconsin paper pushed the ball forward a little bit more, reporting that this trade was completed pending the approval of Bucks ownership.

I don’t have a whole lot to add to this series of reports, but let me throw out a couple of small items:

Click here for the full post.

1. The Tillery story reports that Sessions will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. I posed this question to a team source today and was told, without confirming or denying the deal, that Sessions will in fact be a restricted free agent. Sessions’ free agent status is crucial to evaluating this trade. If he’s unrestricted, there’s no way I’d do this. If he’s restricted, it becomes much more defensible.

2. I was told by a different team source today that the scuttle around FedExForum is that this is a real trade, but that Milwaukee has backed out. There are two possibilities — that this is all true and the latest report out of Wisconsin just hasn’t caught up with the Bucks nixing the deal. Or, that the info about the Bucks pulling out is not correct. As near as I can tell, the only people who really know everything about Grizzlies transactions are Chris Wallace and Michael Heisley, so I don’t entirely trust this. And, in fact, I have reason to believe to proposed deal is still active.


Personally, I have mixed feelings about this deal. If I were starting a team from scratch and had to choose among these three players, I would choose Conley. But that’s not the situation here. Conley was drafted to a team without a dominant backcourt player that wanted to emulate the Phoenix Suns uptempo style. Drafting Conley made a lot of sense then.

This summer, however, the team added a guard that needs to ball in O.J. Mayo and changed style based, it seems, on an ownership directive to focus on defense. I think scuttling the transition game is an over-reaction to the demand for more defense and that slowing down the pace has hurt several players, most notably Conley and Rudy Gay. But, adding Mayo and feeding him the ball was absolutely the right thing to do and I’ve been skeptical since early this season about the ultimate compatibility of Mayo and Conley.

I still think Mike Conley is much better than he’s shown this season, but I don’t have much faith in his fit with the Grizzlies, so I’m open to the idea of trading him.

Sessions and Alexander seems to be reasonable value. Sessions is a very good player who is only a year older than Conley and has been much more productive in a similar amount of playing time. He’s a bigger guard than Conley at 6’3”, but because he’s not a three-point threat, he’s still probably not the ideal backcourt mate for Mayo. Sessions could develop into a quality starting point guard in the mold of Andre Miller. At minimum he seems to be a solid rotation player.

Alexander, like Conley, is a lottery pick who hasn’t produced yet. I haven’t seen enough of Alexander either in college or with the Bucks and I thought he was a reach at #8 last summer. Alexander’s name didn’t come up much last summer when I talked to Grizzlies sources about draft prospects, perhaps because he wasn’t a contender at #5 and wasn’t going to fall to the team’s pick late in the first round. I don’t really know what to make of Alexander’s prospects, but a long, athletic small forward to play behind Rudy Gay is certainly an acknowledged need.

Tillery’s story says that Conley is being shopped around the league. Given that Conley was clearly shopped this summer, I believe that.

Unfortunately, two of the teams that would seem to make the most sense for a Conley deal are probably the two teams least likely to deal with the Grizzlies right now: Portland was involved in heavy discussions this summer regarding Conley and Travis Outlaw, but it’s hard to see them dealing with the Grizzlies after the Darius Miles saga.

Next up is Minnesota: The Timberwolves are starting Sebastian Telfair at the point, with journeyman Kevin Ollie off the bench. They need a point guard. Meanwhile Kevin Love is playing behind a pair of bulky power forwards in Al Jefferson and Craig Smith. I think a Conley for Love deal would make a lot of sense, but that’s unlikely to happen for obvious reasons.

Who else might be interested in Conley? I’m just speculating, but Golden State has purportedly been interested in Charlotte’s Raymond Felton this season. If they want a pure point guard, there are plenty of players on their roster that might be on interest to the Grizzlies among them (in rough order of preference): Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, Brandon Wright, Marco Bellinelli, and Ronny Turiaf.

Conley was on the Phoenix radar before Marc Iavaroni came to Memphis. With Nate Robinson and Chris Duhon unlikely to be the long-term answer at the point for Mike D’Antoni in New York, that seems like a potential Conley destination. The Grizzlies have demonstrated an interest in David Lee, but his trade value is probably considerably higher than Conley’s right now.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

Just want to reiterate that I love these "imminent" trade threads.

I think the last 50% chance this has of still happening has to happen today. Otherwise it is 100% dead IMHO.

I can't buy the notion that somehow a major trade like this would be held up for four or five days to see if Joe Alexander earns a spot in the dunk contest.

Why? Teams frequently/usually take many days to talk about trades before finally pulling the trigger. It doesn't seem as odd usually because most trades don't leak out that far in advance.
In Wolefel's article on this he even implies that neither team feels much of a sense of urgency to complete this trade, just that it will need to get done at some point before the trading deadline.

Just like I was not persuaded that the CV-Carl Landry trade would be held up four or five days so that the teams could simply exchange players while the Bucks were in Houston for a game thus making logistics easier.

It wasn't just about convenience or saving airfare or something. It was mainly about lessening competitive disadvantage for both us and the Rockets. We do it surrounding our game, then the main players involved can all get their physicals done in Houston and get to their new teams quicker, lessening the chance they will miss a game or an additional game with their new teams. Also, if the Rockets and Bucks do this trade before they play each other, they are both short handed when facing each other, meaning no real advantage either way. They do this before each facing ANOTHER team, they both have to play a short handed game against an opponent who is not short handed due to a trade.

People get too wrapped up in trades needing to happen within a day or two of when they heard about them. Considering how many hours/days into the process we hear about trades varies from potential trade to potential trade that doesn't make all that much sense.

With the Landry thing, had WSSP not started to mention anything, I might not have put anything out there until during the Houston game. Then the day after the Houston game would have only been 1 day after people heard about it instead of 7 days. It becomes a matter of perception and impatience, although certainly a number of days passing by CAN lessen the likelihood of a trade (though not in all cases).

[paulpressey25]

Good update Luke. The interesting line was from the Memphis guy above.

And, in fact, I have reason to believe to proposed deal is still active.

That line tells me he heard the deal was dead and talked to another source.

But again, I have a hard time seeing this happen unless it goes down today.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

Interesting read from a Memphis blog, this guy apparently has connections:

I don't buy that it could be active still. This guy obviously isn't taking into account that I have become bored with this trade rumor by now. It was only fun for the first 36-48 hours.

[LUKE23]

Good update Luke. The interesting line was from the Memphis guy above.

And, in fact, I have reason to believe to proposed deal is still active.

That line tells me he heard the deal was dead and talked to another source.

But again, I have a hard time seeing this happen unless it goes down today.

I have to admit, one of my friends sold me on this deal last night. That means it ultimately won't happen.

What really sucks is that if the deal does go "dead", we might not even know as fans and we'll just sit here speculating away.

I would say if the deal is not done by the day of the slam dunk voting results, then I would be shocked if it went through.

[Ill-yasova]

Interesting read from a Memphis blog, this guy apparently has connections:

I don't buy that it could be active still. This guy obviously isn't taking into account that I have become bored with this trade rumor by now. It was only fun for the first 36-48 pages.

[Jollay]

I don't get the Memphis' guys rationale at all. Therefore I dont trust him.

Conley may not be a good fit with Mayo because Mayo needs the ball. So you trade for Sessions?

Focus on defense, so you trade for Sessions and Alexander? What exactly does Skiles focus on to OK that trade?

Good pull, Luke, but this guys logic is so suspect, I cant help but be skeptical.

[paulpressey25]

Why? Teams frequently/usually take many days to talk about trades before finally pulling the trigger.

I don't disagree with this, but maybe my comments are more specific towards Herb Kohl rather than GM's as a whole. Two thoughts.

a) He is known to change his mind and also undercut his GM. Hence there is a possibility he came in an nixed this thing. (which goes to Will Perdude's point from 24-hours ago that I'm giving more creedence now) I can't think of any deals in the past that got widely discussed as being this close to being done, didn't occur immediately, and that suddenly got resurrected under Kohl's tenure. Maybe there are some. Usually he strikes fast and unexpected when deals actually do go down.

b) I know personally how conservative and risk averse Kohl is. If he's bought in on a deal, he's not going to let his front office wait around on it for some logistics sake. Having three assets (Ramon, Joe, Conley) sit on the table (his and the ones he is acquiring), play games and run the risk of injury is not something he's generally down for.

The only fact pattern you noted that would be consistent with Herb Kohl is him somehow thinking the Bucks deserve more compensation out of this should Alexander get voted into the dunk contest. It would be consistent for him to share with Memphis an invoice of the marketing expense incurred by the Bucks for advertising the last 30-days on "Vote for Joe".

[LUKE23]

One thing that really excites me about this deal if it goes down and Conley pans out, Bucks would be set at the two hardest positions on the court (Conley, Bogut) for the next decade.

[hptmatthew]

hey everyone...I can tell you that the guy who wrote the blog quoted a few posts back is the best Grizzlies writer we have in Memphis. He is well connected (and a darn nice guy to boot). He is closely connected with sources of various sorts inside the team. one can trust what he says.

Now, all that being said, he posted that yesterday afternoon...and we still have yet to hear anything...

[BobbyLight]

So after convincing myself that I was all for this trade it still isn't done... I need to stop reading this board then I'd never know stuff like this exisited and I would never have to justify all of the moves the Bucks don't make to myself.

[Rockmaninoff]

One thing that really excites me about this deal if it goes down and Conley pans out, Bucks would be set at the two hardest positions on the court (Conley, Bogut) for the next decade.

While thinking about it more last night, I thought the same thing. I guess I don't love or hate this trade. It will probably make the team more interesting to watch for awhile.

Hearing that Memphis is interested in Alexander, makes me wish that Hammond would have offered up Alexander/Gadzuric for Walker before he was waived. That would have given the Bucks enough breathing room.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

If we don't do this trade, and Sessions pans out, we would also be set at those two positions.

I don't have an opinion on Sessions vs Conley as a non-Grizzlies watcher, but it seems both are young guys with a moderate chance to improve over the years. In spite of the late career success of Nash and Billups, the vast majority of players - including point guards - don't see major improvement. We'd probably be trading one player who is unlikely to be great for another.

I wish we knew if there was any truth to the dunk contest rumor. If it were true that we'd get another asset if Joe is voted in, I'd be willing to run around the building voting for him on every computer I can find.

[paulpressey25]

If we don't do this trade, and Sessions pans out, we would also be set at those two positions..

The Memphis article made me take a pause when he compared Sessions to Andre Miller. Ramon isn't there yet, but perhaps could be someday. So I concur with what you are saying. We might still be ok with Ramon assuming we could re-sign him to a reasonable salary.

[SupremeHustle]

If we don't do this trade, and Sessions pans out, we would also be set at those two positions..

The Memphis article made me take a pause when he compared Sessions to Andre Miller. Ramon isn't there yet, but perhaps could be someday. So I concur with what you are saying. We might still be ok with Ramon assuming we could re-sign him to a reasonable salary.

I said before, and PP you might appreciate the comparison, but I see a lot of Rod Strickland in Ramon.

[jerrod]

One thing that really excites me about this deal if it goes down and Conley pans out, Bucks would be set at the two hardest positions on the court (Conley, Bogut) for the next decade.

i don't agree with that. i think whether this deal goes through or not, we're set at starting center, and counting on a young extremely inconsistent pg to significantly improve.