1/12/2009 Woelfel: Conley deal waiting for Herb (poll added)

[Joana]

I don't get the Memphis' guys rationale at all. Therefore I dont trust him.

Conley may not be a good fit with Mayo because Mayo needs the ball. So you trade for Sessions

He's half-right, I think. It's not about Sessions being a good fit with Mayo and the later needing the ball, rather about being a good fit in that Memphis team:

it's a spread offense that relies on the superiority of each individual player to create his own shot (of course that Memphis players aren't generally superior to their opponents, but that's why Mayo and Gay hold the ball so much, play 1vs5 so frequently and they lost most of their games). Here and there they have Gasol dishing from the high post to some cuts (like we frequently do with Bogut), but it doesn't get more complex than that. Eventually it can indeed be the best fit for the kind of players they have. But this type of game doesn't require a lot from the PG, except the execution of some patterned passes to initiate the offense and then move to spread the floor and provide space to penetrations/shots (Sessions is indeed a good fit for them, although he'd be an even better one if he had a good jumper)

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=870288&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=465#p18254033

Summing it up, instead of having Mayo and Gay creating shots going 1on1, they'd have Sessions also doing that - and, for now, that's Sessions most prominent skill. Also, on the defensive side, the big Sessions would certainly be a better fit next to the small Mayo than Conley.

[paulpressey25]

As we've discussed, Conley isn't quite as cheap as we think. Because he was drafted so high, his cost will be higher the next three years than your average rookie.

That said, I still think Ramon would get an offer sheet for 3-years/$15mm and that would be a tough one for us to match financially unless Hammond thinks he's the starting PG.

I might just as well put in my sig the idea that if we need cash help, Redd or RJ are where you start since I'm a broken record there (as many of you are as well). But maybe Hammond has done that and the market is frozen to trade guys with contracts like that. In the new economy it is plausible that even the NBA front offices come to the conclusion that only about 10 stars actually sell tickets and another 20-25 actually really can turn your team around appreciably. And everyone else just get's paid less. We'll have to see. But I'd be curious what level of public sponsorship for example is provided to the NBA broadcasts by the automakers. That number will decline quite a bit here.

[Grizfan6969]

I don't get the Memphis' guys rationale at all. Therefore I dont trust him.

Conley may not be a good fit with Mayo because Mayo needs the ball. So you trade for Sessions?

Focus on defense, so you trade for Sessions and Alexander? What exactly does Skiles focus on to OK that trade?

Good pull, Luke, but this guys logic is so suspect, I cant help but be skeptical.

From Memphis' POV, Sessions is a bigger guard that would allow Mayo to slide over to the PG from some stretches of the game, particularly late in the fourth quarter when the ball needs to be in his hands.

Ramon has at least shown that he is capable of playing some 2 guard and put up pretty good numbers.

Conley isn't big enough nor does he have the scoring ability to play off guard.

Also, Memphis owner Michael Heisley is wanting to implement this, "Bad Boyz South" attitude to the Grizzlies team. This is evident by trading the softer Pau Gasol for the more aggressive Marc Gasol. By trading away Mike Miller and getting OJ Mayo.

Conley is too nice of a guy and that is where many Memphis fans get fed up with him. He doesn't seem to have the motivation needed to become great, although he has all of the physical gifts to become great.

For me, I am still kind of hoping that the trade is still alive, because I love Ramon's potential and I believe that Joe could add more depth to our team.

But there is a part of me that still says Conley is going to be great, even though he doesn't seem to be a good fit with Memphis and what we are trying to do.

I believe that this deal makes a lot of sense for both teams, so I am hoping that the deal is still alive.

[Rockmaninoff]

I don't get the Memphis' guys rationale at all. Therefore I dont trust him.

Conley may not be a good fit with Mayo because Mayo needs the ball. So you trade for Sessions

He's half-right, I think. It's not about Sessions being a good fit with Mayo and the later needing the ball, rather about being a good fit in that Memphis team:

it's a spread offense that relies on the superiority of each individual player to create his own shot (of course that Memphis players aren't generally superior to their opponents, but that's why Mayo and Gay hold the ball so much, play 1vs5 so frequently and they lost most of their games). Here and there they have Gasol dishing from the high post to some cuts (like we frequently do with Bogut), but it doesn't get more complex than that. Eventually it can indeed be the best fit for the kind of players they have. But this type of game doesn't require a lot from the PG, except the execution of some patterned passes to initiate the offense and then move to spread the floor and provide space to penetrations/shots (Sessions is indeed a good fit for them, although he'd be an even better one if he had a good jumper)

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=870288&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=465#p18254033

Summing it up, instead of having Mayo and Gay creating shots going 1on1, they'd have Sessions also doing that - and, for now, that's Sessions most prominent skill. Also, on the defensive side, the big Sessions would certainly be a better fit next to the small Mayo than Conley.

Good points. I think Sessions would be a really good fit there, because it would be similar to how New Jersey uses Harris and Carter (caution: hyperbole comparison). Mayo is more of a shooter, Sessions more of a penetrator. Both are combo-guards in a way, and running two combo guards can be a nice net positive. They both have things to learn on the defensive side of the ball, but I think Sessions in place of Conley would improve their offense immediately.

[Grizfan6969]

As we've discussed, Conley isn't quite as cheap as we think. Because he was drafted so high, his cost will be higher the next three years than your average rookie.

That said, I still think Ramon would get an offer sheet for 3-years/$15mm and that would be a tough one for us to match financially unless Hammond thinks he's the starting PG.

I might just as well put in my sig the idea that if we need cash help, Redd or RJ are where you start since I'm a broken record there (as many of you are as well). But maybe Hammond has done that and the market is frozen to trade guys with contracts like that. In the new economy it is plausible that even the NBA front offices come to the conclusion that only about 10 stars actually sell tickets and another 20-25 actually really can turn your team around appreciably. And everyone else just get's paid less. We'll have to see. But I'd be curious what level of public sponsorship for example is provided to the NBA broadcasts by the automakers. That number will decline quite a bit here.

However you do dump JA's salary in the process. A guy who must of you guys despise!

[Licensed to Il]

Lost in all these pages is the idea that Hammond/Skiles doesn't seem to think that Sessions is our long term starting point guard. Look, I love Sessions, especially how crafty he is driving to the rim and finishing... he has hit some really clutch shots too. But Skiles rarely even plays him at the point. What does that tell you guys (about how Skiles thinks of his point guard skill set)?

My summary is that Hammonds and Skiles probably like Sessions a lot, but as they move forward and try to build a roster with a specific identity, Sessions manages to fall outside of those preferred skills, while retaining good trade value around the league. Many here want us to trade our Gadzurics for another teams lotto picks, but that is not how it works. You have to give up production and potential to get production and potential back....

[europa]

My summary is that Hammonds and Skiles probably like Sessions a lot, but as they move forward and try to build a roster with a specific identity, Sessions manages to fall outside of those preferred skills, while retaining good trade value around the league.

This is the point I've been making. Hammond is trying to build a team not just stockpiling players like he's running a fantasy basketball team. There's no question Sessions is talented but Hammond and Skiles have come to the conclusion that his talent doesn't fit the criteria they have identified for the PG position. As much as I like Sessions, I like this approach considerably more because I believe it has a far greater chance of success than what was done the past two seasons when little or no attention was paid to how to properly construct a team in my opinion.

[aboveAverage]

Well I just hope it happens soon, because the last thing we need is this rumor to go on for two weeks, and have Sessions play awful because he can see he's not wanted here anymore.

[pilprin]

I listed RJ as a keeper because I believe he has made a huge impact on the mentality of this team. Maybe his contract makes him a dumper, but eventually you need to pay someone.

[pilprin]

When is the trade deadline?

[bigkurty]

I listed RJ as a keeper because I believe he has made a huge impact on the mentality of this team. Maybe his contract makes him a dumper, but eventually you need to pay someone.

As of right this minute, RJ is the guy I would most like to trade actually.

[paulpressey25]

I like this approach considerably more because I believe it has a far greater chance of success than what was done the past two seasons when little or no attention was paid to how to properly construct a team in my opinion.

I agree that this approach will much more likely work to provide a winning team. I'm also ok with this approach at this time (I'm tired of the lotto). But if Bogut, Joe Alexander, CV or Yi actually turned into Dirk, Amare, KG or even Bosh the other approach would have worked as well, and likely could have provided for greater and longer term success.

[pilprin]

If there is decent return, I'd probably move anybody other than Bogut.

[Rockmaninoff]

If there is decent return, I'd probably move anybody other than Bogut.

But if the Bucks were to acquire Conley, would it make sense to trade Bogut for Greg Oden?

[LUKE23]

I can say with pretty high certainty that Bogut is not being traded.

[power4wardjinx]

Sounds like Tyronn Lue or Damon Jones, guys who can shoot, would be better fits for Memphis. In that offense, why even guard Ramon off the ball?

The fact that Sessions is RFA sours me on the deal a bit.


How many RFA's got offer sheets last offseason?


Zero

Conley's set to make $3.8m next season which, if this trade hasn't fallen apart, would bring the Bucks player payroll to $66m w/ 10 guys. They would still face paying luxury tax to sign the rookies and a PF (Charlie/other). I don't see Ramon costing more than $3.8m and could easily cost a half mill less (or more).
The financial side of this doesn't do enough to justify it, in my view.

[LUKE23]

Don't see Ramon costing more than $3.8M? On what planet? Hammond already said he gets more calls for Sessions than anyone on the roster.

I can guarantee Sessions gets more than $3.8M per year.

[Downtown]

Although I like your team I'm not a Bucks fan( Seattle Sonics actually, not OKC). I've been around this site for a long time and one thing I have consistantly read over the years in your forum is how much the majority of your fans would like to see Dan Gadzuric moved.

So out of curiousity I'll ask this. If Memphis was willing to throw in Hakim Warrick and his expiring contract, plus Darko Milicic and his expiring next season contract, would you be willing to trade Dan Gadzuric as long as Luc Mbah A Moute was included in the deal? No substitutes.

I'm just curious because I know how much you guys like Mbah A Moute and I want to see how far you would go to trade Gadzuric. And for the record I love Mbah A Moute's game and I think without a doubt he was the steal of the 2008 draft.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

As we've discussed, Conley isn't quite as cheap as we think. Because he was drafted so high, his cost will be higher the next three years than your average rookie.

That said, I still think Ramon would get an offer sheet for 3-years/$15mm and that would be a tough one for us to match financially unless Hammond thinks he's the starting PG.

It isn't the next 3 years exactly for Conley unless you count the rest of this season as one of those years. He has 2 years after this season before he is a FA. Now, tendering him his QO at that point to make him an RFA would mean he could take that QO and in that sense be here for a 3rd season after this one without getting a new long term deal, but I still think it is more appropriate to say "the next two years" rather than "the next three years"

Your overall point stands though.
As fam first (that I saw) illustrated, year's 1 and 2 of a new Sessions contract isn't likely to be much more costly (maybe by $400k total?) than having Conley instead for those years. The rest of the savings would be realized by wiping Alexander off the books (and replacing him on the roster with a minimum salary player). It would seemingly be of more financial significance not to have to make that commitment to Sessions for possibly year 3, 4, and 5 of a contract, if he were to be given a 5 year offer sheet by someone. With Conley, you don't have to make that commitment. You could to kick the decision on him down the road for two seasons.

Another point is that Conley would be a FA that same offseason as Redd, Jefferson, Gadzuric, and Mbah A Moute are currently set to be FAs

[power4wardjinx]

The planet where Delonte West, the guy who's second to Lebron in minutes played on Cleveland, was an RFA last season after his 4th yr, got no offers and couldn't get more than $3.85 for this year. They're comparable players but for West being a better shooter and much better defender, and more experienced. If teams know the Bucks will match, why would they bust Milwaukee's payroll with $5m offer? They won't.

Luke, you can't guarantee that Ramon will get more than $3.8m next season.

Hammond could find a way work out a deal that escalates, holding Ramon's 2009-10 salary to $3.5m or less.