OT EA charging $10 to play multiplayer on used games!

[chuckleslove]

am i right in thinking that steam requires you to be online to play?

i could see that being a big problem for consoles

No, you can start the program in offline mode. You only need to be online to download the game in the first place or to get updates. Obviously any online game requires you to also be online

Here:

[jerrod]

that's cool, but i have trouble seeing console companies just flat out give up on people who don't want to connect their consoles to the internet

[chuckleslove]

that's cool, but i have trouble seeing console companies just flat out give up on people who don't want to connect their consoles to the internet

I don't think they are going to give up, not yet. I'm not saying that in a year they are going to completely cut out hard copies of console games or even PC games. They will be available on the shelves in brick & mortar stores for some time to come. However more and more are becoming available for purchase via digital download as well. I firmly believe that over the next 10-15 years they are going to phase out hard copies of software into digital copies only. Just look at how much the internet has expanded in the last 10 years. 10 years ago I was one of the few people who had a true high speed internet being on DSL. I paid $60 a month for 768kbps speed, most of my friends and family were still on 56k dial up. Nowadays it is few and far between for people that are still on dial up, everyone is on DSL, Cable, FIOS, and the likes. As this becomes more and more mainstream you will see it starting to shift that way. It might even be 25 years until hard copies are completely eliminated and even then there may be games that come out on hard copies after that but you will see the majority of sales and distribution switching to digital over the next 10-15 years. I would be extremely shocked if 15 years from now in 2025 that you don't have something like 75-90% of games being distributed over the internet.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

I firmly believe that over the next 10-15 years they are going to phase out hard copies of software into digital copies only.

There's no way that 15 years after Apple distributes its 5 billionth app electronically, anybody will be printing onto plastic discs and shipping by truck to retailers who take a 30% cut.

If I'm Microsoft preparing to release my next console, what do I care if I miss out on the bottom 5% of consumers by not including an optical drive? Doing so guarantees that I can keep Gamestop's 30% on the other 95% of sales.

Apple's download-only model is already inarguably better in the year 2010, and we're thinking Microsoft's retail model might still be winding down in the year 2025??

I give it five years.

[chuckleslove]

I firmly believe that over the next 10-15 years they are going to phase out hard copies of software into digital copies only.

There's no way that 15 years after Apple distributes its 5 billionth app electronically, anybody will be printing onto plastic discs and shipping by truck to retailers who take a 30% cut.

If I'm Microsoft preparing to release my next console, what do I care if I miss out on the bottom 5% of consumers by not including an optical drive? Doing so guarantees that I can keep Gamestop's 30% on the other 95% of sales.

Apple's download-only model is already inarguably better in the year 2010, and we're thinking Microsoft's retail model might still be winding down in the year 2025??

I give it five years.

I think it is going to be a little bit longer than that. We haven't heard much about the next generation of consoles at this point but I think it is safe to say that they will include optical drives. Consoles have traditionally had a lifespan of 5-6 years which means the next generation is about due out at the end of 2011 which is why I am somewhat surprised there haven't been more leaks.

So if we say the next generation of consoles is going to come out in 2011-2012 then those would last until 2016-2018 at which point the generation after that would be due out which I think would be the earliest you see consoles coming out that don't require some sort of optical disc medium.

Now take into account that just because a next generation console is out the old one isn't phased out immediately that puts it at the very minimum in my mind at 2020 before console optical disc medium is phased out. If consoles 2 generations from now still have optical medium then you are looking at 2025 which is where I came up with my 10-15 year window

Just wanted to explain that because I didn't just guess 10-15 years on a whim I had a reason behind that time frame

[BobbyLight]

Do we even need to wait for the next generation? The consoles released today are connected well enough to the internet and they now come with very large hard drives. The platforms are in place for digital distribution.

And Adam's got a great point on what Apple is doing. Consoles will reach a point in time where they don't care about people who aren't connected to broadband, because they are becoming a very small minority. Apple has proved beyond doubt that digital distribution works, others are going to follow suit. If developers can bypass packaging and retail outlets, they are going to be making a lot more money for themselves. And isn't that what the video game industry is about? Making money.

[chuckleslove]

I'm sure you will see more and more digital distribution in the next generation, my point is that physical medium is still going to be around as well and we are at least 2 generations of consoles away from changing that, possibly 3 which is where my estimate game from.

You have to remember that a lot of newer games with high res graphics and big worlds are literally coming on multiple DVDs, some game can easily have 6-10GB of data for the game and files. That is a ton of bandwidth and even though distributing electronically is cheaper than putting it into a store distributing that much data has its own problems. There is a big difference between distributing a small song/portal app and a full out high definition game. Why do you think Blizzard went the route of using torrent to distribute their patches/updates in WoW? They knew 6 years ago when the game came out just how hard tackling the bandwidth issue was. To my knowledge current consoles do not support distribution via torrent.

I think it is very unrealistic to think that the next generation of consoles that are due out in about 1.5-3 years to be 100% digital distribution for their content, it isn't even close to realistic.

[ReasonablySober]

I think I come down on the side of chuckles with this one. The issue isn't with people that prefer a physical copy. I think most people would rather pay less for a game and have the convenience of downloading it from their home. The issue is obviously bandwidth and the size of games. A typical PS3 game can be over 22GB. Say you're on a pretty decent connection and getting 1.1 mb/sec download. A game of 22GB is going to take you 5.5 hours. That's not so bad if you start the download in the morning and have it when you get home. But then you're hoping the d/l doesn't get interrupted or your connection slows down. Then you have the issue of HD space. I could see people wanting a terabyte in their console, particularly if you're like me and you use your console as a media center.

I think we get there, I don't think it's with the next console, at least not 100%. I could see the option being there, but only a limited percentage using it.

[BobbyLight]

Wasn't even really factoring in bandwidth and that's obviously huge... I do think it's a while before digital distribution is a 100% kind of thing, but I think we will start to see pushes here and there during the remainder of this generation to get the wheels rolling.

I also hope the next generation of consoles isn't even close. I can't imagine something so much better than my PS3 that it could get me to pay 400 - 600 for a new console. I think this generation has some years left, at least that's what I am hoping for.

[chuckleslove]

Wasn't even really factoring in bandwidth and that's obviously huge... I do think it's a while before digital distribution is a 100% kind of thing, but I think we will start to see pushes here and there during the remainder of this generation to get the wheels rolling.

I also hope the next generation of consoles isn't even close. I can't imagine something so much better than my PS3 that it could get me to pay 400 - 600 for a new console. I think this generation has some years left, at least that's what I am hoping for.

The PS3 has a longer lifespan left, first of all Sony put in a next generation optical drive from the start(blu-ray vs dvd) and they really did beef up the hardware in comparison to the 360 and especially in comparison to the Wii. The 360 came out a year before the Wii and PS3 but it has held up very well over time, the Wii is definitely due for a successor soon, I think that consoles are shifting towards a longer than 5 year lifespan because even if the 360 has a successor come out in 2011 it will be 6 years old at that time. The 5 year life span has been in place for a while but I think it is fading. Nintendo came out in 1985, SNES in 1991, N64 in 1996, Gamecube in 2001, Wii in 2006. So outside of the 6 year gap between the NES and SNES it has been a consistent 5 years between consoles. I only used Nintendo as a measure because they are the only console manufacturer that has been around for the last 25 years at this point, Sony obviously came in with the PSX to compete with the N64/Dreamcast and the Xbox didn't come around until the PS2/Gamecube generation.

I know that Sony has said they plan on the PS3 having a 10 year lifespan, I don't know what Microsoft thinks of the lifespan of the 360 is but I could see it lasting a couple more years to go into the 7-10 year range, but obviously the Wii is a little dated.

Hard drive space is also the other issue that I didn't mention beyond bandwidth, I really didn't mention it because it isn't as much of an issue anymore, I know I have an external 1.5TB hard drive that I purchased for $120 but that will be a cost factor, I can't see a completely digital system launching with anything less than a 1 TB version available. Luckily even current generation consoles all have USB ports so it shouldn't be a problem to add an additional external hard drive to these things even if they do go cheap on the hard drives with say a 300-500GB hard drive.

The other factor is that a lot of people are running these systems via wireless connections and have older wireless routers that don't support the new higher speed standards. I'm a bit ahead of the curve being a tech guy and can pull the full 8Mbps off of my wireless that my cable connection supports but a lot of people would be lucky to pull 1Mbps with their older routers.

I fully expect full digital gaming to be the way of the future, I even expect next generation consoles to expand on what the current generation has done, maybe even offer a lot of full retail games in their online stores, I just don't expect it to be the complete standard and majority way of distribution yet. I think we are 2 generations of consoles away from it being a standard and probably 3 generations from physical medium being eliminated.

[chuckleslove]

This discussion has almost made me wish I was putting my college degree to use.... almost. Then I remembered that my friends from college that due work in the industry are all working 60-80 hours a week and I'm okay with not using my degree

[zmanishere11]

One of the best examples of how online gaming is changing is this new Madden Ultimate Team.

You get to build your own team by acquiring player cards in two ways: Buying packs of 12 (4 levels, bronze-500 coins, silver-1500 coins, gold-3000 coins, platinum-9000 coins), or bidding on individual cards that are listed on their auction site.

To put the cost of this into perspective, $250,000 coins costs you about $62 ACTUAL dollars.

The odds of pulling a decent card in one of their packs is TERRIBLE, just like real card collecting.

I've seen individual player cards sell for $250,000 coins ($62 ACTUAL dollars for the ability to play with a certain player in madden).

Players are signed to contracts, which is basically the number of games you can play with them. You can buy contract extensions of 24/30/36 games for $1000 coins.

My favorite part is you can buy "legendary" cards of players. For example, Randy Moss when he was a rc with the Vikings - the card is ultra expensive, but literally every one of his skill sets are 99.

I would bet there are people that spend hundreds of dollars per WEEK on this thing, all to create the "ultimate" team. I play a lot, but have managed to get coins not by buying them, but playing games, buying cards, and reselling them at higher prices.

[ReasonablySober]

I've never explored the Ultimate Team thing, but that sounds fascinating. And expensive.

[Dobber-16]

This is why I stuck with electric football.

I have a 1960's version of this game. This is as close as I get to electronic gaming.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Bandwidth isn't an issue. I've already downloaded full games on my xbox. If they have anybody smart working there, beginning with the next generation, you will start playing the game before the download completes anyway.

Cost of a terabyte hard drive isn't an issue either. Every console except the wii was subsidized at launch, and they'd be saving on the cost of an optical drive.

Apple's profit margins just destroy all the other tech companies. Sony loses money some years! They really aren't going to evolve and try to learn from the best run tech companies?

The publishers make a lot more money from digital too, because the resale market dies. Considering how much money they are currently losing in aggregate it seems like something they'd cheer for.

[chuckleslove]

You have downloaded full games and so have some other people. The bigger issue is the companies providing the bandwidth more-so than the consumers having the bandwidth to obtain it. If you have a well selling game that sells 1 million or 2 million copies and it is say a 25-30GB game(not unreasonable to assume for a next generation game considering some blu-ray games on PS3 already hit near this mark) then you are talking about 60 PB of bandwidth needed, that is for 2 million. Obviously it won't all hit at once but even if you had a great game at launch sell 500k copies on the first day that is 15PB of data for 500k copies of a 30GB game.

The technology already exists to play a game before it finishes downloading, if you download a trial subscription to WoW you can start streaming the download and play it almost instantly while it downloads the rest of the game in the background, that is because WoW is roughly a 12-15GB game at this stage with 2 expansions and countless patches.

I just think you are crazy if you think optical drives are going away next generation. Yes the publishers want it, everyone wants it, it is coming down the road. But it is going to be a slowly phased transition and to think that it is coming in the next generation of consoles which will be out in a matter of years at this point is not a smart bet

You honestly believe that the next generation of consoles that are already in development and will be out in a matter of years aren't going to have optical drives? I'd be willing to bet a lot of money on that one.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Go ahead and bet money on it - Gamestop is publically traded.

[chuckleslove]

That would be a lose-lose venture for me. Their stock IS going to fall eventually, it is only a matter of time. Their stock will not see any significant gains from the next generation of consoles having optical media either so at best I would view that as a break even investment so yeah

[ReasonablySober]

Bandwidth is "a" issue, it is THE issue. Optical drives aren't going away anytime soon.

[BobbyLight]

I'd be stun if the next generation didn't have optical drives. The issue is bandwidth because if all games go high def, no compression on anything, the games are going to be huge. It's what, 8gig for the typical X-box 360 game? The PS3 has games that have taken up an entire blu-ray at 35 gigs. Downloading 8gig, not a big deal, 35gig some people are going to have a problem with.