paulpressey25 wrote:I don't think the Nuggets would trade that Knicks pick as unprotected. Seems like too much a risk.
That said, if I were the Bucks, and this was at all possible, this would be another example of a deal where I'd overpay and take a step backward, with the shot at two steps forward.
Here is the thing, maybe it is the fact that one of my 1st memories as a child is from a Nuggets game and being such I lived through the 14 years of hell trying to rebuild from 1989-2003. Maybe as a long time basketball fan I understand what happens to lotto picks who go to teams where they are fighting with good established players to get minutes (think Derick Williams), or I understand the odds of the lottery both to get the top pick and to get a top player, but I do not think the Nuggets should go that route.
Truth of the matter is that even in a top 7 player deep draft it is likely only 1-2 of them is a franchise guy, 1-2 an all star type, and 2 of them are busts. Meaning out of the 7 you will likely find 3 all star or better guys, 2 outright busts, and 2 somewhere in between. the later in the lotto you go the worse your odds get. Also in all their years in the lotto the Nuggets have never once moved up, and never had a draft pick above 3rd (they got Mcdyess who was the 2nd overall pick in a draft day trade)
Also if you watch young players when they come in the league most take at least 3 years to fully develop, and that is with playing time. With this draft being so deep on forwards and PGs, the Nuggets strongest & deepest areas, how much playing time do they get? How long does it take them to develop? How long do they get before they are traded? Also in the next 3 years the Nuggets will have to resign Lawson, gallo, and many of the other players, or trade them for value and rebuild, plus Lawson and company will be well into their prime by that point. That is if things go right.
Now the reason I would prefer the Nuggets do a deal like Sanders for the pick, is that Sanders age fits with the rest of the core, he is signed for 4 more years after this one, giving the Nuggets basically 3 years with the guys they have signed in order to try to get to contender, and if Shaw is successful with his development of Faried, and can help Sanders somewhat like he helped Hibbert, then the Nuggets have the potential to have a starting lineup with at least 4 borderline all star talent players, and still have the money for a good bench.
The Bucks on the other hand have a major problem, they are lacking talent at PG, and could use another forward or two (maybe they get Smart to be their SG of the future) plus they need time to develop their youth already on the team and getting added to the team. Adding 2 top lotto picks, knowing the odds are only one is an all star talent and the other may only be a starter level guy, is not a terrible deal, especially since they will have the minutes available to allow those guys to develop.
paulpressey25 wrote:The Nuggets poster wants basically Mayo/Sanders for McGee/pick. Now McGee sucks and his contract is terrible. He's owed $11mm next year and $12mm the year after. However, we'd shed $44mm of Larry salary and $16mm of Mayo salary.
But the big thing would be that pick. That pick could be anywhere from 1-3 (remote) or 10-16 (likely). Given the depth in this draft, I'd think hard about pulling the trigger. Although unlikely, the payoff could be significant.
I will dispute that McGee sucks, he was very productive last year working with a decent coach and has worked with Hakeem that last 2 years. This year he started the season with a fracture in his leg which has kept him out. He is not Sanders, and he is overpaid, but he is a decent shot blocking big, which it looks like could be useful for the Bucks if Sanders is gone.
I personally have been saying for a long time that I think the Knicks pick ends up 7-10, as I do not see them beating even 2 of the 10 teams trying to make the playoffs in the east, and with likely records figured in for the western conference I have thought they may end up right around that area. That was before this last week, now I am not so sure that pick does not end up top 5. That is the risk the team trading for the pick would have to take, but I think it makes sense for both teams, especially when Henson is waiting in the wings to be the Bucks long term answer at center.