Official #2 Pick Thread - Ford #7: Parker

[Zeezprah]

You're fond of talking about how Bogut overtook Paul the year they came out when Paul for so long was expected to be the top pick. .

I'm glad you remember that. In November of 2004, that was the "Chris Paul" draft. I remember getting into it on the ESPN boards with some Pistons fans taunting us about losing TJ Ford for the year. Everyone was saying that if the Bucks tanked it and got lucky, they'd replace TJ with Chris Paul.

Well, as the season went on, people got fascinated with shiny new toys like Bogut, Marvin and eventually even Deron Williams. Chris Paul was the old story from six-months earlier. However, the initial gut read of those scouts was right. Paul was the Man that year and we saw that clearly in year one.

I do think Embiid can be a much bigger factor and I don't discount Jabari being great. But I can't believe that 100 scouts who watched Wiggins the past two years are now suddenly wrong because he flamed out in his last NCAA game.

agreed. it's just like in school when you used to take tests and second guess yourself, and then change your answer only to kick yourself when you got the test back and you had the correct answer right the first time.

i think wiggins and parker are those 2 guys who you just can't go wrong with. especially exum would be over thinking it. but even embiid is a huge gamble passing on one of wiggins or parker.

can you imagine if wiggins and parker end up what they're supposed to be and embiid flames out. makes me sick thinking of the potential consequences.

[bigkurty]

I'm fine with any of the three as long as they pick what the scouting reports tell them. I don't want the safe pick. I want to go for the home run. So I picked Wiggins but I could easily be sold on Parker or Exum if they believe they are superstars.

[JayMKE]

Bogut was a great prospect at Utah, he just had a lot of unfortunate injuries and was something of a mental midget. He appeared very skilled offensively, most people were comparing him to Vlade Divac but it never ever translated. It took him years to become a great defensive player, he just played straight up his first few years and never left his feet for some reason. I don't think you could fault anybody for taking Bogut #1 that year, the 29 other teams would of done the same. Marvin Williams somehow getting himself in the conversation is the real mystery, he wasn't even that big of a contributor at UNC.

[europa]

I don't fault the Bucks at all for taking Bogut. Just like I won't fault the Cavs for taking Embiid if they do. Just saying that NBA GMs get so smitten with skilled big men they often dismiss the more talented smaller players in the same draft. Happened with Paul and could happen in this draft with Wiggins and Parker and maybe Exum too.

Agree that Marvin being considered for the top pick by some was the truly baffling call. That was all about overthinking athleticism in place of big-time basketball ability. Just watching college tape, there's no way Marvin should have gone ahead of Paul and Deron Williams. Both were clearly superior basketball players.

I think the big question for me is how did Wiggins go from being the guy everyone wanted to tank for two years running to be so far behind Embiid in terms of value? That makes no sense to me. Even if you think Embiid could be great, how did Wiggins suddenly fall that far behind when he was viewed as the No. 1 pick in this draft before he even got to college? Seems to me if he was viewed as being that good for that long he also has the chance to be a special player, making him more than worthy for the No. 1 pick and likely a slam dunk for the Bucks if he's there at 2.

[theFireBlanket]

Having a player from a certain country doesn't make them anymore popular there, it might sway some die hards to sign up here on RealGM but if you polled Australia while Bogut was here you'd probably still find that the Lakers, Celtics, and Lebrons are far and away the most popular. There isn't any huge contingent of German fans of the Mavericks AFAIK.

It would be interesting to see what the windfall if any there was from drafting Yi.

There is most definitely a Maverick fan base in Germany. Dirk is a German sports legend at this point.

http://seattletimes.com/html/nba/200397 ... ure28.html

Yi actually had a major pull while he was a part of the team because there was really just him, Yao and Sun Yu in total for the Chinese NBA representatives. Doesn't change the fact that he was the wrong pick.

Those teams were still more popular in Australia because they were winning or loaded with stars. When Bogut blew up for a stretch during FTD, I bet that the Bucks shot right up there with them in followers.

If Exum convinces you as the GM that he has the highest potential of any of the available players, you select him because that's going to eventually lead to winning more games. Winning more games and being an international pull is significant. Put your opinion aside. I know... "he's going to be a bust". If Hammond, McKinney, etc. think the opposite, then that's got to be their pick. Job safety be damned.

[JayMKE]

it's a lot harder to find an alpha dog scorer than it is a guy to defend.

Who here thinks Wiggins WON"T average at least 20ppg next year or at worst by year two? Do we really think Wiggins won't be a 20ppg scorer?

Brandon Knight was a 20ppg scorer in the second half of the year. Scoring at a high clip is not going to be an issue for Wiggins.

To me the only reason you'd take Jabari over Wiggins is if you think Jabari is going to be the next LeBron. i.e. a guy so freakishly talented and driven that he will elevate everyone around him. He may be that, I just don't know.

But there is no way I'm passing on Wiggins just because Jabari has a more diverse offensive game and might average 24ppg versus Wiggins 21ppg.

That's pretty high on Wiggins, I think he'll be a great player but does he have the mentality of a go-to scorer? Is he going to be able to create his own shot? I'm not too worried about him being the next Harrison Barnes or anything, I just think Parker has the potential to score with the likes Lebron, Durant, Melo.

[paulpressey25]

I think the big question for me is how did Wiggins go from being the guy everyone wanted to tank for two years running

A) Embiid looks to be Hakeem part II

B) Wiggins didn't average 20-25ppg in NCAA play

C) Jabari has better intangibles and aesthetics

D) The media is always looking for a new story.

[Ayt]

it's a lot harder to find an alpha dog scorer than it is a guy to defend.

Who here thinks Wiggins WON"T average at least 20ppg next year or at worst by year two? Do we really think Wiggins won't be a 20ppg scorer?

Brandon Knight was a 20ppg scorer in the second half of the year. Scoring at a high clip is not going to be an issue for Wiggins.

To me the only reason you'd take Jabari over Wiggins is if you think Jabari is going to be the next LeBron. i.e. a guy so freakishly talented and driven that he will elevate everyone around him. He may be that, I just don't know.

But there is no way I'm passing on Wiggins just because Jabari has a more diverse offensive game and might average 24ppg versus Wiggins 21ppg.

I think he has no chance to average 20ppg next year. I doubt he scores 20+ in year 2 as well. Only three players have averaged 20+ in their teens. Durant averaged 20.1 as a rook. Melo averaged 21. LeBron averaged 20.9. All three of those guys were way ahead of where Wiggins is in terms of scoring skills.

I doubt he scores even 15 as a rookie to be honest.

[JayMKE]

Having a player from a certain country doesn't make them anymore popular there, it might sway some die hards to sign up here on RealGM but if you polled Australia while Bogut was here you'd probably still find that the Lakers, Celtics, and Lebrons are far and away the most popular. There isn't any huge contingent of German fans of the Mavericks AFAIK.

It would be interesting to see what the windfall if any there was from drafting Yi.

There is most definitely a Maverick fan base in Germany. Dirk is a German sports legend at this point.

http://seattletimes.com/html/nba/200397 ... ure28.html

Yi actually had a major pull while he was a part of the team because there was really just him, Yao and Sun Yu in total for the Chinese NBA representatives. Doesn't change the fact that he was the wrong pick.

Those teams were still more popular in Australia because they were winning or loaded with stars. When Bogut blew up for a stretch during FTD, I bet that the Bucks shot right up there with them in followers.

If Exum convinces you as the GM that he has the highest potential of any of the available players, you select him because that's going to eventually lead to winning more games. Winning more games and being an international pull is significant. Put your opinion aside. I know... "he's going to be a bust". If Hammond, McKinney, etc. think the opposite, then that's got to be their pick. Job safety be damned.

Interesting article although it does say that the Mavs and the NBA in general are afterthoughts in Germany, Dirk is personally very popular there even tho basketball is not.

[ReasonablySober]

I don't fault the Bucks at all for taking Bogut. Just like I won't fault the Cavs for taking Embiid if they do. Just saying that NBA GMs get so smitten with skilled big men they often dismiss the more talented smaller players in the same draft. Happened with Paul and could happen in this draft with Wiggins and Parker and maybe Exum too.

Agree that Marvin being considered for the top pick by some was the truly baffling call. That was all about overthinking athleticism in place of big-time basketball ability. Just watching college tape, there's no way Marvin should have gone ahead of Paul and Deron Williams. Both were clearly superior basketball players.

I think the big question for me is how did Wiggins go from being the guy everyone wanted to tank for two years running to be so far behind Embiid in terms of value? That makes no sense to me. Even if you think Embiid could be great, how did Wiggins suddenly fall that far behind when he was viewed as the No. 1 pick in this draft before he even got to college? Seems to me if he was viewed as being that good for that long he also has the chance to be a special player, making him more than worthy for the No. 1 pick and likely a slam dunk for the Bucks if he's there at 2.

I don't think it's really all that difficult to see how this happened. Youtube compilations are far different than actual game tape. He got to college and his low skill level (for an elite prospect) was on full display.

[4hitter]

it's a lot harder to find an alpha dog scorer than it is a guy to defend.

Who here thinks Wiggins WON"T average at least 20ppg next year or at worst by year two? Do we really think Wiggins won't be a 20ppg scorer?

Brandon Knight was a 20ppg scorer in the second half of the year. Scoring at a high clip is not going to be an issue for Wiggins.

To me the only reason you'd take Jabari over Wiggins is if you think Jabari is going to be the next LeBron. i.e. a guy so freakishly talented and driven that he will elevate everyone around him. He may be that, I just don't know.

But there is no way I'm passing on Wiggins just because Jabari has a more diverse offensive game and might average 24ppg versus Wiggins 21ppg.

Count me as one who doesn't think he'll average 20ppg or more... Especially not his rookie year. I'm for Parker but I plan on celebrating whoever we take because I don't believe we can go wrong. Admittedly, I cannot see into the future though some people here seem to believe they can!

[theFireBlanket]

Interesting article although it does say that the Mavs and the NBA in general are afterthoughts in Germany, Dirk is personally very popular there even tho basketball is not.

If you read the full thing, then you should have also noticed that the German national basketball coach remarked about how German basketball goes untelevised while nearly all of the Mavericks games are shown at 1 a.m. there and that millions tune in to watch them.

Sure they're an(*) afterthought...to soccer, which is the #1 sport in Germany. But there is a basketball contingent ranging somewhere in the millions.

[Ayt]

I can't believe that 100 scouts who watched Wiggins the past two years are now suddenly wrong because he flamed out in his last NCAA game.

I agree. What I saw from Wiggins was enough to convince me he's a special talent. One bad game isn't going to change that opinion.

I can't imagine people are using one game to rate him. Plus, it isn't like his last game was his first awful game.

[step3profit]

I think Wiggins tops out as a 18/6/4 type of guy, which is pretty good, especially with his defense. I'm not going to freak out about passing on him. I expect Parker at this point, and I'm OK with it.

[paulpressey25]

I can't imagine people are using one game to rate him. Plus, it isn't like his last game was his first awful game.

I look at the growth curve. He averaged 28ppg the prior four games to that one.

[Baddy Chuck]

I've said it with the Wall comparison, I don't think Wiggins will be a world beater from day 1 but I think he should be able to produce right away. Think that 20 PPG mark, especially if you want to consider any level of efficiency, is a little out there though.

That said, I don't think putting those expectations on Parker is even reasonable. LeBron and Durant were clearly on another level entering the league and even they had trouble hitting that mark, and they struggled mightily with efficiency. I still think Parker's ability to score when his jumper isn't falling will be pretty questionable as well and like Wiggins if he's going to score with any type of volume his efficiency will be extremely sketchy.

[jakecronus8]

I don't fault the Bucks at all for taking Bogut. Just like I won't fault the Cavs for taking Embiid if they do. Just saying that NBA GMs get so smitten with skilled big men they often dismiss the more talented smaller players in the same draft. Happened with Paul and could happen in this draft with Wiggins and Parker and maybe Exum too.

Agree that Marvin being considered for the top pick by some was the truly baffling call. That was all about overthinking athleticism in place of big-time basketball ability. Just watching college tape, there's no way Marvin should have gone ahead of Paul and Deron Williams. Both were clearly superior basketball players.

I think the big question for me is how did Wiggins go from being the guy everyone wanted to tank for two years running to be so far behind Embiid in terms of value? That makes no sense to me. Even if you think Embiid could be great, how did Wiggins suddenly fall that far behind when he was viewed as the No. 1 pick in this draft before he even got to college? Seems to me if he was viewed as being that good for that long he also has the chance to be a special player, making him more than worthy for the No. 1 pick and likely a slam dunk for the Bucks if he's there at 2.

I don't think it's really all that difficult to see how this happened. Youtube compilations are far different than actual game tape. He got to college and his low skill level (for an elite prospect) was on full display.

As far as Embiid love, I think a lot of it has to do with what happened with Wiggins and Parker more so than Embiid himself. People were expecting Kevin Durant freshman year out of both Wiggins and Parker. When that didn't happen there had to be a guy that was "the" guy and people talked themselves into Embiid being it. Not to say he isn't a great prospect. He is. Just not the generational talent people want him to be.

[paulpressey25]

. Think that 20 PPG mark, especially if you want to consider any level of efficiency, is a little out there though.

By year two at the latest, Wiggy will be averaging 20.0 ppg or higher. I don't even feel I'm going out on a limb there.

Will he be as prolific a scorer as Jabari? Don't know. But my bigger point is that we won't be saying "Damn, we should have picked Jabari because he's such a better scorer"

We might be saying, "Damn, we should have picked Jabari because he's morphed into a great all-around player and team leader"

I'm just not worried about "scoring" in an vacuum with Wiggins.

[ReasonablySober]

. Think that 20 PPG mark, especially if you want to consider any level of efficiency, is a little out there though.

By year two at the latest, Wiggy will be averaging 20.0 ppg or higher. I don't even feel I'm going out on a limb there.

Will he be as prolific a scorer as Jabari? Don't know. But my bigger point is that we won't be saying "Damn, we should have picked Jabari because he's such a better scorer"

We might be saying, "Damn, we should have picked Jabari because he's morphed into a great all-around player and team leader"

I'm just not worried about "scoring" in an vacuum with Wiggins.

What about his game leads you to believe he's going to be a go-to scorer? Can we have that discussion? You're talking to someone who likes him enough to take him #2 in this draft, so I'm not some blind hater. I'm optimistic about him and his game.

But thus far he's shown to be a lousy finisher at the hoop, incapable of taking even college kids off the dribble, streakiness at best from outside, and a general lack of aggressiveness to his game offensively.

To say that he's going to be a go-to scorer early on is such an incredible leap. I'm just wondering what you're basing it on.

[Bernman]

PP is drunk on a few work out clips. This wasn't his stance before. The overreaction to Yi's work out is more analogous than Paul's and Wiggins' descent from the top in the eyes of the public. Chris Paul already played collegiate ball before that. The opinions of Wiggins were based off high school basketball. Then we saw him at an intermediate level, and the confidence in how he'd project waned somewhat, as it should have. The biggest reason the NBA instituted the higher age limit was so there would be less mistakes from evaluating players based on high school play. The top high schoolers picked in their drafts from '99 to '01 were Bender, Miles, and Kwame. I doubt they would have been picked nearly that high if we saw them at an intermediate level. Let's not act like an increase in info and time from a marginal to a solid amount is a bad thing. The problem with the top prospects being victim to unfair over-analysis comes when scouts spend too much time watching them and see their flaws but not their newer alternatives. With Wiggins, his flaws (trouble marrying his out of this world athleticism much with his game thanks to below average skills and vision) showed up pretty much from the beginning of his first college season. So he's not a victim of over-analysis, rather analysis. He's in the same boat as Parker, and virtually Embiid as well. None of them have been around long enough to be the victim of over-analysis.