Bucks Keep 2018 Pick

[worthlessBucks]

I said yes. Maybe we can bring someone in who can pawn off Wilson and Thon for a pick for next year then (or this year..whatever works).

[MickeyDavis]

After Vaughn, Thon and Wilson I don't know how anyone can be so enamored with keeping #17 this year.

[paulpressey25]

1992 Lee Mayberry was the last time the Bucks took someone in the 20's. Amazing.

Important note. That 1992 Lee Mayberry selection was not our organic pick but rather came in trade from the Bucks fire sale of vets when Dunleavy came on board in May of 1992. Our organic pick that year was #8 Todd Day.

The only time in the last 30-years the Bucks organic pick was in the 20's was the 2001 draft where it was #22 overall coming off the 52-30 season.

Of course we had traded that pick a year earlier to Houston along with our #15 pick in 2000 to move up to #9 in the 2000 draft and select Joel Pryzzy.

TL:DR - Bucks draft picks are never any lower than 18.

[Treebeard]

After Vaughn, Thon and Wilson I don't know how anyone can be so enamored with keeping #17 this year.

There's two parts to the deal: first and foremost, clean house in the front office, second, just pick a guy at #17 that belongs in the NBA.

There's too much junk on the middle and lower half of the roster. The Bucks need an infusion of talent.

[TD75]

I said "no" for two reasons mainly:
- Giving up the pick this year allows us to have 1st round picks the following years to trade
- I have no faith in the ability of this franchise to pick well in mid 1st rounds, given the history of their last 3 first round picks.

[mke_design]

After Vaughn, Thon and Wilson I don't know how anyone can be so enamored with keeping #17 this year.

Hammond and Kidd are gone. There’s reason to believe Horsts choice may not have been Wilson outside of speculation.


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[Ron Swanson]

Give me the pick. If you're just under the assumption that nothing is ever gonna change with the FO and Giannis is inevitably gonna suffer a major injury and cause us to lose a Top-10 pick, then sure, I guess. What's the point of anything then? Just hire the right coach and that pick is in the 20-30 range for the next 3 years.

[DingleJerry]

Give me the pick. If you're just under the assumption that nothing is ever gonna change with the FO and Giannis is inevitably gonna get injured and cause us to lose a Top-10 pick, then sure, I guess. What's the point of anything then? Just hire the right coach and that pick is in the 20-30 range for the next 3 years.

That's not if for me though. It's that it has to go at some point regardless. If it goes now you're then free to trade your other picks in the pursuit of another star. Compound that with the risk that eventually it will be higher than it is now. That's really all it comes down to me.

[mke_design]

Give me the pick. If you're just under the assumption that nothing is ever gonna change with the FO and Giannis is inevitably gonna get injured and cause us to lose a Top-10 pick, then sure, I guess. What's the point of anything then? Just hire the right coach and that pick is in the 20-30 range for the next 3 years.

That's not if for me though. It's that it has to go at some point regardless. If it goes now you're then free to trade your other picks in the pursuit of another star. Compound that with the risk that eventually it will be higher than it is now. That's really all it comes down to me.

Once we keep the pick we’re free to trade it again prior to the draft/draft day.

I think it’s risky both ways, but we’re win now - and that means adding potential pieces now. We’re desperate for cheap depth if we’re going to trade any of our players as well.


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[Ron Swanson]

So, lose the pick so that we can trade more future ones? Meh.

[DingleJerry]

How else are we going to get another star player, you're going to have to trade at least one first to upgrade from our current secondary players to a better one.

[Ron Swanson]

Idk, you're probably not ever gonna get a "star" player for a bunch of mid-late 1st rounders. If anything I'm looking to trade one of Bledsoe or Middleton for a lottery pick, not mortgage all our future ones.

[mke_design]

Idk, you're probably not ever gonna get a "star" player for a bunch of mid-late 1st rounders. If anything I'm looking to trade one of Bledsoe or Middleton for a lottery pick, not mortgage all our future ones.

Correct, otherwise you end up like Brooklyn.


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[Serge28]

Definitely want the pick. If you don't want it cause you think we'll be worse next season... You may be right, but it's the wrong (defeated) approach to take IMO.

[midranger]

The most likely scenario is we give up a mid first at a later date. This is a net neutral.

Bad case scenario is we have injuries and give up a top 7ish pick, maybe higher.

Best case scenario is we give up like the 25th pick in 2 years.

I'd place these probabilities as equally likely.

Is the difference in value between the 6th and 16th greater than the difference in value between the 16th and 26th?

Of course it is.

[crkone]

Pros to keeping pick:
Cheaper labor for next few seasons of tight salary constraints
Player may actually contribute to a winning team (crazy, I know)
Pick now may be better than the future conveyed pick(coaching right now is worst ever theory)

Cons to keeping pick:
Player sucks/too raw and hogs a roster spot (Vaughn/Thon/Wilson syndrome)
Can't use future picks to potentially bolster roster until pick fate is sealed
Pick that we lose in future may be better than this pick (Giannis injury theory)

I think the main points are in italics. If you are confident in better coaching and Giannis won't get injured, keep the pick. If you think the Bucks are going to Bucks, get rid of this pick now.

[DingleJerry]

Idk, you're probably not ever gonna get a "star" player for a bunch of mid-late 1st rounders. If anything I'm looking to trade one of Bledsoe or Middleton for a lottery pick, not mortgage all our future ones.

That's a different way to look at it I hadn't considered. but I really don't see them taking the route for the optics of taking a step back, plus you still have to take back salary somehow. so I'd guess the most likely scenario would be one or two of our secondary stars for a better star and in that case you're going to need to attach a pick. Take last year's guys of PG, CP3, Butler, Kyrie. If you'd have flipped them back one of our other 3 current 'stars' you'd have needed a pick or two with it and I'd guess that would be scenario going forward too.

[crkone]

The most likely scenario is we give up a mid first at a later date. This is a net neutral.

Bad case scenario is we have injuries and give up a top 7ish pick, maybe higher.

Best case scenario is we give up like the 25th pick in 2 years.

I'd place these probabilities as equally likely.

Is the difference in value between the 6th and 16th greater than the difference in value between the 16th and 26th?

Of course it is.

The value is different but the odds too are also way different. It's basically the odds of Giannis getting injured or not.

[midranger]

The most likely scenario is we give up a mid first at a later date. This is a net neutral.

Bad case scenario is we have injuries and give up a top 7ish pick, maybe higher.

Best case scenario is we give up like the 25th pick in 2 years.

I'd place these probabilities as equally likely.

Is the difference in value between the 6th and 16th greater than the difference in value between the 16th and 26th?

Of course it is.

The value is different but the odds too are also way different. It's basically the odds of Giannis getting injured or not.

Nah. He's healthy this year. We are a 44 win team. If Middleton or Bledsoe missed the last 30 games we'd be at 35 wins. If they both did, who knows?

[crkone]

The most likely scenario is we give up a mid first at a later date. This is a net neutral.

Bad case scenario is we have injuries and give up a top 7ish pick, maybe higher.

Best case scenario is we give up like the 25th pick in 2 years.

I'd place these probabilities as equally likely.

Is the difference in value between the 6th and 16th greater than the difference in value between the 16th and 26th?

Of course it is.

The value is different but the odds too are also way different. It's basically the odds of Giannis getting injured or not.

Nah. He's healthy this year. We are a 44 win team. If Middleton or Bledsoe missed the last 30 games we'd be at 35 wins. If they both did, who knows?

But people agree the Bucks have the worst coaching in the league. Bucks get even an average coach, this team is pushing at least 50 wins, right?