ROUND 1: AJ Johnson - Poll Added

[engelmartin]

This is a fundamentally unserious draft pick. The Bucks need people who can play *now*. The obvious choice is to pick a guy who averaged 3 points in the Australian league.

3 points a game, wow, he must be very talented. I would never achieve that.

Everyone could use an extra rebound a game. That’s a *luxury*

[LUKE23]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but a pretty detailed read.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/process-over-production-why-aj-johnson

[chonestown]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but a pretty detailed read.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/process-over-production-why-aj-johnson

Definitely a glass is half full read. Main point is he has things that can't be taught/developed and the things that are lacking can be developed and/or have a base from which to build.

I think he was overdrafted based on where he was projected (but who knows is really what it comes down to) but not on his gifts/potential.

[emunney]

Here's my thing with the draft writers who seem to really like Johnson but feel like it doesn't make sense for the Bucks to take a young player: if you think a guy could be one of the best players in the draft class, you can't also think it's going to take more a year for him to be useful. Like, of the super raw prospects that hit it big, how many of them were just unplayable for like 3 years first? It doesn't **** work like that.

Let’s assume best case scenario type situation. He ends up like one of the rail thin combo guards with no initially reliable jumper ceiling guys mentioned in this thread; Simons, Murray, Crawford.

Those guys were all mop up in year 1, back end of rotation in years 2+3 (8th-9th man types), and broke out in year 4.

Note: Murray was injured in his year 3.

I think that’s his best case scenario. I think all three of those guys were probably more advanced when they hit the nba skill set wise, but hard to evaluate with Johnson because there just ain’t much to go on.

Yeah, this is kind of what I mean. Murray didn't do anything his first year, and then his 2nd year he started 48 games and was 2nd team all-defense.

I'm not making any predictions about our guy here, I'm just saying, as a general rule, if a guy's going to be good, he's at least going to be useful in year 2 or year 3 at the latest. Jermaine O'Neal is the only guy I can think of where this wasn't true. Giannis was the 2nd best player on a playoff team his 2nd year after being "2 years away from being 2 years away". It's just an ahistorical take. Pick the right player and he'll find the court soon enough.

[FrieAaron]

Here's my thing with the draft writers who seem to really like Johnson but feel like it doesn't make sense for the Bucks to take a young player: if you think a guy could be one of the best players in the draft class, you can't also think it's going to take more a year for him to be useful. Like, of the super raw prospects that hit it big, how many of them were just unplayable for like 3 years first? It doesn't **** work like that.

Let’s assume best case scenario type situation. He ends up like one of the rail thin combo guards with no initially reliable jumper ceiling guys mentioned in this thread; Simons, Murray, Crawford.

Those guys were all mop up in year 1, back end of rotation in years 2+3 (8th-9th man types), and broke out in year 4.

Note: Murray was injured in his year 3.

I think that’s his best case scenario. I think all three of those guys were probably more advanced when they hit the nba skill set wise, but hard to evaluate with Johnson because there just ain’t much to go on.

Yeah, this is kind of what I mean. Murray didn't do anything his first year, and then his 2nd year he started 48 games and was 2nd team all-defense.

I'm not making any predictions about our guy here, I'm just saying, as a general rule, if a guy's going to be good, he's at least going to be useful in year 2 or year 3 at the latest. Jermaine O'Neal is the only guy I can think of where this wasn't true. Giannis was the 2nd best player on a playoff team his 2nd year after being "2 years away from being 2 years away". It's just an ahistorical take. Pick the right player and he'll find the court soon enough.

Nash is a good example of a very late bloomer, but even then he's still showing you something in year 2 or 3. I don't know if there's a more extreme example.

[Fotis St]

Horst should/could have traded up for #8 Rob Dillingham ... I love what Minessota did ... they traded up with future 1sts and got who I think is the best guard in the draft with all star potential. I watched Dillingham split some high pick n roll trap, he reminded me a bit of Donovan Mitchell who was the only one of his draft class that was explosive enough to split double traps ... Is Karnisovas still in Denver ? Someone there keeps picking my guys. *C.Braun+DaRon Holmes

[Ron Swanson]

I think there's a distinct difference between "being useful by Year 2-3" and "championship role-player by Year 2-3" though.

[buckboy]

He was excluded from my board cause of his hairstyle... that DJ Wilson / Nwora hairstyle always triggers me the wrong way. I have never seen a good player with this hairstyle after Doctor J ... they always end up some dumb random guys who are out of the league in 2 years.

I am literally speechless. There should be a rule for every Bucks GM that if "your guy" you want to pick on the 1st round is not like Top 5 pick in the RealGM forum's collective mind ... just DON'T PICK HIM ...

The thing about a hair cut is that it can be changed.

Also the fact that it's completely and utterly **** irrelevant.

[midranger]

I think there's a distinct difference between "being useful by Year 2-3" and "championship role-player by Year 2-3" though.

I think this is fair.

As munney pointed out, Murray did play 22 minutes per game and started half time his sophomore year. The context of that however is Kawhi was hurt/sitting out essentially the whole year and the spurs went from a 61 win, WCF team the season prior to a 47 win (still really good) team gentleman swept in 1st team.

Same thing occurred in Portland when Simons got a rotational role in years 2-3. Wins dropped off.

With Crawford, the Bulls were just pure **** the whole time.

Relying on dudes who aren’t ready isn’t a recipe for success. That said, we don’t have a ton of better options at the moment, so if the kid can play, he’ll play.

[BUCKnation]

People wanting us to draft a more "NBA ready" player are giving me serious 2020 & 2021 NFL Draft "must draft a WR in round 1 because of what Chase and Jefferson did" vibes.

Derrick Livelys don't just grow on trees. I love swinging for the fences here, especially in this weak draft.

Derrick Lively also only averaged 5/5/1 in 20 mpg at Duke

[chonestown]

This is a fundamentally unserious draft pick. The Bucks need people who can play *now*. The obvious choice is to pick a guy who averaged 3 points in the Australian league.

3 points a game, wow, he must be very talented. I would never achieve that.

Worthington's Law

[Fotis St]

All AJ Johnson needs is a good haircut , 7 meals per day and he will be fine.
Even the most polite YouTuber/Draft gick reviewed all teams picks and rated Bucks with the worst and only D in the league.
Well let me ease your pain a bit ... just think of #23 Tyler Smith and #33 AJ Johnson ... AJ Johnson is a bit smaller than Christie, thinner, worse shooter, a bit older, BUT he has some explosiveness with the ball in his hands and a bit faster with more vertical and I think more aggressive at the rim. He could be good, BUT I think Christie is at least a one less year project than AJ.
I guess maybe Doc didn't care at all about the draft cause he already has some minimum veterans ready to sign.
Bottom line ... we care more about the draft than our team does cause we have no inside info.
Lets just hope we get Hamidou Diallo, G. Procida, Vuksevic and we will be fine.

[DanoMac]

All AJ Johnson needs is a good haircut and 7 meals per day and he will be fine.

Signature worthy quote

[Fotis St]

All AJ Johnson needs is a good haircut and 7 meals per day and he will be fine.

Signature worthy quote

Someone needs to check his age , he looks like 16.
We need the Thon veteran realgm detectives to check him out.
Did he use his older brother's ID to declare to the '24 draft ?
Hmmm

[M-C-G]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but a pretty detailed read.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/process-over-production-why-aj-johnson

Definitely a glass is half full read. Main point is he has things that can't be taught/developed and the things that are lacking can be developed and/or have a base from which to build.

I think he was overdrafted based on where he was projected (but who knows is really what it comes down to) but not on his gifts/potential.

Watching the small amounts of film, he definitely moves at a speed we haven’t seen on this roster since Brandon Knight or TJ Ford. And sounds like he has a good mindset. Excited to see what we have but not expecting anything in year 1 other than spend loads of time lifting and building his body up

[FarBeyondDriven]

love it. will contribute this season. Future starting PG. You got a gem.

[drdrG]

Anyone know if he has older siblings? Can we predict how his frame might fill out when he's 23/24?

[soxperry]

Anyone know if he has older siblings? Can we predict how his frame might fill out when he's 23/24?

lol that's next level.. googling now

[ShootingtheJ]

Horst should/could have traded up for #8 Rob Dillingham ... I love what Minessota did ... they traded up with future 1sts and got who I think is the best guard in the draft with all star potential. I watched Dillingham split some high pick n roll trap, he reminded me a bit of Donovan Mitchell who was the only one of his draft class that was explosive enough to split double traps ... Is Karnisovas still in Denver ? Someone there keeps picking my guys. *C.Braun+DaRon Holmes

Horst couldn't trade 2031 because he ended up in the 2nd apron because he overpaid for Lopez.

[ShootingtheJ]

If AJ Johnson does anything in the NBA as a rookie, then his original NBL coach should be rehired just so they can fire him again.