Bucks News, Transactions, Trade Ideas

[Ron Swanson]

I think Green’s problem getting one of those mid tier deals here is that Horst has been pretty adept at finding limited, high percentage 3 point shooters at minimal cost.

Merrill
Allen
Green
Beasley
Trent
Prince
Rollins
Coffey

Couple second round picks and some minimum deals to stream these guys.

Not saying it’s a great or sustainable plan. It’s just been our recent past.

Additionally, I’m pretty sure they view Trent and Rollins as much more dynamic guys than Green. Green is definitely the best shooter of the bunch, but that’s kind of the only thing he’s doing offensively.

Again, this is just kind of a gut feel I have.

I have kind of a pocket theory about Green that a big part of his impact is that guys think they can take him 1 on 1, they generally can't, and they end up taking a meh shot, which is great for our defense. It could be that if teams stop attacking him so persistently, we won't get the same outsized benefits from playing him. The question would then become whether or not the other teams have a reliably better alternative.

Players used to do this with Pat all the time too and it was great for us (Jrue to a lesser extent but his defensive rep was well known so teams didn't try this as much). Bigger guys would try and post him up and end up getting stonewalled/taking low percentage shots. Just like Pat, AJ's got a really strong base so those kind of situations benefit him (specifically recall Tatum trying to do this and getting clamped on a couple possessions when we played Boston in the RS). But you're right, once teams read the scouting report, the worry is that they'll eventually realize that AJ's lack of length and athleticism is exploitable as long as you're not playing right into his hands with those kind of possessions. Kinda like how teams eventually caught onto the Pat fly-by contest stuff and exploited his lack of footspeed.

[emunney]

I think Green’s problem getting one of those mid tier deals here is that Horst has been pretty adept at finding limited, high percentage 3 point shooters at minimal cost.

Merrill
Allen
Green
Beasley
Trent
Prince
Rollins
Coffey

Couple second round picks and some minimum deals to stream these guys.

Not saying it’s a great or sustainable plan. It’s just been our recent past.

Additionally, I’m pretty sure they view Trent and Rollins as much more dynamic guys than Green. Green is definitely the best shooter of the bunch, but that’s kind of the only thing he’s doing offensively.

Again, this is just kind of a gut feel I have.

I have kind of a pocket theory about Green that a big part of his impact is that guys think they can take him 1 on 1, they generally can't, and they end up taking a meh shot, which is great for our defense. It could be that if teams stop attacking him so persistently, we won't get the same outsized benefits from playing him. The question would then become whether or not the other teams have a reliably better alternative.

Players used to do this with Pat all the time too and it was great for us (Jrue to a lesser extent but his defensive rep was well known so teams didn't try this as much). Bigger guys would try and post him up and end up getting stonewalled/taking low percentage shots. Just like Pat, AJ's got a really strong base so those kind of situations benefit him (specifically recall Tatum trying to do this and getting clamped on a couple possessions when we played Boston in the RS). But you're right, once teams read the scouting report, the worry is that they'll eventually realize that AJ's lack of length and athleticism is exploitable as long as you're not playing right into his hands with those kind of possessions. Kinda like how teams eventually caught onto the Pat fly-by contest stuff and exploited his lack of footspeed.

I think it's a little more sustainable with AJ because most guys are trying to take him off the dribble, but yeah, same concept.

[Bernman]

Pat declined as an athlete & his defense went with it. It was never better than average here. AJ's a +. And in his case, you need to get to about 12 feet to really exploit the lack of verticality. He prevents you from getting there much due to strength, tenacity, & decent lateral movement.

I don't think there's diminishing returns cuz he got figured out, or teams stopped going at him. An opponent must shoot. So he has value beyond that list of shooters provide, except maybe Rollins, who's less established. Also, the on ball juice gives R-Roll more potential value in a trade. AJ fits here.

[emunney]

Doing a ctrl-F in the Geneva Conventions for "R-Roll"

[soxperry]

Pat declined as an athlete & his defense went with it. It was never better than average here. AJ's a +. And in his case, you need to get to about 12 feet to really exploit the lack of verticality. He prevents you from getting there much due to strength, tenacity, & decent lateral movement.

I don't think there's diminishing returns cuz he got figured out, or teams stopped going at him. An opponent must shoot. So he has value beyond that list of shooters provide, except maybe Rollins, who's less established. Also, the on ball juice gives R-Roll more potential value in a trade. AJ fits here.

AJ is not a plus defender. Hes simply average which is better than you would think just by looking at him (and given his sub par athleticism for an nba player).

Bball index has Pat as a somewhat significantly better defender almost every season he played for us including his final one. Granted, last year was a lot of garbage tome.

[pifhluk23]

I think Green’s problem getting one of those mid tier deals here is that Horst has been pretty adept at finding limited, high percentage 3 point shooters at minimal cost.

Merrill
Allen
Green
Beasley
Trent
Prince
Rollins
Coffey

Couple second round picks and some minimum deals to stream these guys.

Not saying it’s a great or sustainable plan. It’s just been our recent past.

Additionally, I’m pretty sure they view Trent and Rollins as much more dynamic guys than Green. Green is definitely the best shooter of the bunch, but that’s kind of the only thing he’s doing offensively.

Again, this is just kind of a gut feel I have.

none of those guys can come off a screen and hit a pull up 3 with a decent %. Green literally requires a defender be in his space at all times, the guys on that list are mostly just standstill 3p shooters. Standstill 3p shooters are a dime a dozen and that's why guys shooting 40% from 3 are getting camp deals or not on a roster at all.

[emunney]

I think Green’s problem getting one of those mid tier deals here is that Horst has been pretty adept at finding limited, high percentage 3 point shooters at minimal cost.

Merrill
Allen
Green
Beasley
Trent
Prince
Rollins
Coffey

Couple second round picks and some minimum deals to stream these guys.

Not saying it’s a great or sustainable plan. It’s just been our recent past.

Additionally, I’m pretty sure they view Trent and Rollins as much more dynamic guys than Green. Green is definitely the best shooter of the bunch, but that’s kind of the only thing he’s doing offensively.

Again, this is just kind of a gut feel I have.

none of those guys can come off a screen and hit a pull up 3 with a decent %. Green literally requires a defender be in his space at all times, the guys on that list are mostly just standstill 3p shooters.

Beasley and Merrill can certainly come off screens and drill shots. But he can't move his feet laterally, and Merrill has some struggles there too. Merrill's release is super quick, almost Steph-like. I wish we had kept him. He'd be better for us than he is for Cleveland. AJ's release is absurdly difficult for defenders. It's just straight out the top. Functionally speaking he's like 6-2 as a defender and 6-9 as a shooter. You have to get so close to him to contest.

[Ron Swanson]

AJ was a 32nd percentile scorer (0.84 PPP) off of screens on minimal volume (9.5% frequency) last year. This idea that he's a fundamentally more dynamic shooter off of movement than everyone else on the roster is more eye-test myth than reality. But it's not like teams run a **** ton of off-screen motion for the sake of taking a quick-release jumper on the move anymore (nor should they unless you have prime Reggie Miller or Steph/Klay). It's junk offense unless you have a truly elite guy taking those shots. AJ's an elite catch and shoot guy with a quick release, and that's all that matters.

[Bernman]

Pat declined as an athlete & his defense went with it. It was never better than average here. AJ's a +. And in his case, you need to get to about 12 feet to really exploit the lack of verticality. He prevents you from getting there much due to strength, tenacity, & decent lateral movement.

I don't think there's diminishing returns cuz he got figured out, or teams stopped going at him. An opponent must shoot. So he has value beyond that list of shooters provide, except maybe Rollins, who's less established. Also, the on ball juice gives R-Roll more potential value in a trade. AJ fits here.

AJ is not a plus defender. Hes simply average which is better than you would think just by looking at him (and given his sub par athleticism for an nba player).

Bball index has Pat as a somewhat significantly better defender almost every season he played for us including his final one. Granted, last year was a lot of garbage tome.

Pretty remarkable luck then how he was average, and worse than Pat, when each of the last 2 seasons our defense performed the best (among qualifiers) when AJ was on the floor, and that carried over to this playoffs. He was 7 & 5.5 pts better than Pat btw. Massive gap w/in a team.

It's impossible to be as lucky as Green is, to consistently improve d, across a variety of lineups. There are guys who, every season are positive or negative in on/off ratings. At a pt it's indisputable. It's logical in his ability to deny the ball, force lower % shots over him, switch, rotate, box out, get back, etc. He's more average on O cuz he's limited, borne out in o-ratings. It's dependent if he has creators out there. He can't be one.

I watch Green's D closely many games, cuz of mainstream narratives. This is the only way to fully gauge a player's d eye test-wise. You can't focus on the ball/whole team. What he does in many games is incredible. In the playoffs he would get switched onto Turner & consistently deny in the post moving front to back. Our other guards got cooked. On ball certain good scorers he shuts down, while others he scuffles against. So he's not a true stopper. But that he's a plus defender should be one of the least controversial statements on here. It's very conservative. He's genuinely good at it.

[midranger]

I think Green’s problem getting one of those mid tier deals here is that Horst has been pretty adept at finding limited, high percentage 3 point shooters at minimal cost.

Merrill
Allen
Green
Beasley
Trent
Prince
Rollins
Coffey

Couple second round picks and some minimum deals to stream these guys.

Not saying it’s a great or sustainable plan. It’s just been our recent past.

Additionally, I’m pretty sure they view Trent and Rollins as much more dynamic guys than Green. Green is definitely the best shooter of the bunch, but that’s kind of the only thing he’s doing offensively.

Again, this is just kind of a gut feel I have.

none of those guys can come off a screen and hit a pull up 3 with a decent %. Green literally requires a defender be in his space at all times, the guys on that list are mostly just standstill 3p shooters. Standstill 3p shooters are a dime a dozen and that's why guys shooting 40% from 3 are getting camp deals or not on a roster at all.

Basically what Ron said. He’s not shooting on the move all too much. He’s essentially a catch and shoot guy. Maybe a one two dribble and pull up. No one is afraid of him getting to the rim or attacking the paint.

The dude has shot like 360 threes, 60 2pt, and 30 FTs in his career. He’s a one trick pony offensively. He’s really good at that trick and stout enough defensively to hold up on the perimeter despite being undersized, but he’s not really a guy you really want as a starter unless he’s surrounded by a couple other dynamic backcourt guys.

My guess is that’s why he doesn’t have a deal right now.

[JayMKE]

I think it’s as simple as shooters like AJ are making way more money than these bargain deals we’ve been signing guys too.

[soxperry]

Pat declined as an athlete & his defense went with it. It was never better than average here. AJ's a +. And in his case, you need to get to about 12 feet to really exploit the lack of verticality. He prevents you from getting there much due to strength, tenacity, & decent lateral movement.

I don't think there's diminishing returns cuz he got figured out, or teams stopped going at him. An opponent must shoot. So he has value beyond that list of shooters provide, except maybe Rollins, who's less established. Also, the on ball juice gives R-Roll more potential value in a trade. AJ fits here.

AJ is not a plus defender. Hes simply average which is better than you would think just by looking at him (and given his sub par athleticism for an nba player).

Bball index has Pat as a somewhat significantly better defender almost every season he played for us including his final one. Granted, last year was a lot of garbage tome.

Pretty remarkable luck then how he was average, and worse than Pat, when each of the last 2 seasons our defense performed the best (among qualifiers) when AJ was on the floor, and that carried over to this playoffs. He was 7 & 5.5 pts better than Pat btw. Massive gap w/in a team.

It's impossible to be as lucky as Green is, to consistently improve d, across a variety of lineups. There are guys who, every season are positive or negative in on/off ratings. At a pt it's indisputable. It's logical in his ability to deny the ball, force lower % shots over him, switch, rotate, box out, get back, etc. He's more average on O cuz he's limited, borne out in o-ratings. It's dependent if he has creators out there. He can't be one.

I watch Green's D closely many games, cuz of mainstream narratives. This is the only way to fully gauge a player's d eye test-wise. You can't focus on the ball/whole team. What he does in many games is incredible. In the playoffs he would get switched onto Turner & consistently deny in the post moving front to back. Our other guards got cooked. On ball certain good scorers he shuts down, while others he scuffles against. So he's not a true stopper. But that he's a plus defender should be one of the least controversial statements on here. It's very conservative. He's genuinely good at it.

Look up his bball index, then lookup pat. Its all free info.

as for eye test, people see what they want to see.

[Bernman]

Look up his bball index, then lookup pat. Its all free info.

as for eye test, people see what they want to see.

So is d & net rating data. That's free a myriad of places.

I'm not a BBall index/box score doctrinaire. Don't know why anyone would be. Plenty off ball is lost & pt is to help a team win, however you do that.

Explain how AJ's lineups are almost always improving on d/overall, over 2 seasons & the playoffs, compared to Pat, or just about anyone else. That's a lot of randomness to produce patterns. You probably like it when it shows Kuz, Prince, & Brook were tanking all playoff lineups.

People see more when they focus on something more. So this seems an admission you weren't actually focusing on him much, rather the general team. And what's funny is, in doing this, I acknowledged his midseason d slump too. So I noticed the good and bad. That doesn't suggest bias.

[Baddy Chuck]

The inevitable VORP/BBall index showdown will be one for the ages.

[ReasonablySober]

The inevitable VORP/BBall index showdown will be one for the ages.

They both suck ****.

[blazza18]

AJ was a 32nd percentile scorer (0.84 PPP) off of screens on minimal volume (9.5% frequency) last year. This idea that he's a fundamentally more dynamic shooter off of movement than everyone else on the roster is more eye-test myth than reality. But it's not like teams run a **** ton of off-screen motion for the sake of taking a quick-release jumper on the move anymore (nor should they unless you have prime Reggie Miller or Steph/Klay). It's junk offense unless you have a truly elite guy taking those shots. AJ's an elite catch and shoot guy with a quick release, and that's all that matters.

Some of the Green stuff from sections of the fanbase is so over the top at times. Those numbers aren't surprising.

[Bernman]

AJ was a 32nd percentile scorer (0.84 PPP) off of screens on minimal volume (9.5% frequency) last year. This idea that he's a fundamentally more dynamic shooter off of movement than everyone else on the roster is more eye-test myth than reality. But it's not like teams run a **** ton of off-screen motion for the sake of taking a quick-release jumper on the move anymore (nor should they unless you have prime Reggie Miller or Steph/Klay). It's junk offense unless you have a truly elite guy taking those shots. AJ's an elite catch and shoot guy with a quick release, and that's all that matters.

Some of the Green stuff from sections of the fanbase is so over the top at times. Those numbers aren't surprising.

Yes, you're the voice of reason on this, arguing a guy who we're better w/ on the floor for 2 yrs & way better on d...is bad in every area of the game.

This cherry-picked data point confirmed your bias.

[midranger]

I don’t think Green is “bad” is any way. I really like him. He has an elite level offensive skill and is an adequate defender. But it comes with limitations. Ideally, he probably like a 8th man or something. On a small contract, it’s a great value.

I’m a little dubious on locking him into something like a 4 year, 50 million contract. I think you could regret pretty quickly, similar to Patty. Especially, if you can get 85% of the player for a minimum contract most years.

[Prez]

4/50 would be tricky for sure but anything at or under ~$10mil/yr I'm totally good with for AJ. We blow the doors off teams when he's on court with Giannis, he's such an amazing fit next to him. If we didn't have pea brained morons coaching the team the past couple years we'd be spamming that combination.

[drew881]

4/50 would be tricky for sure but anything at or under ~$10mil/yr I'm totally good with for AJ. We blow the doors off teams when he's on court with Giannis, he's such an amazing fit next to him. If we didn't have pea brained morons coaching the team the past couple years we'd be spamming that combination.

Merrill got 4:38 and he is 4 years older. He is getting more than that.