Ron Swanson wrote:Gobert and Siakam were the 27th pick in weak drafts. Jimmy Butler was 30th. Dejuante Murray was 29th. Maybe he won't be any of those guys and just a solid role-player, but I don't know why we always put ceilings on guys based solely on draft slot.
Delusions of draft accuracy
And it is hard to tell someone whose favourite hobby (or even his job) is the draft that it's all a glorified crapshoot anyway. I mean you'll see those guys, even years later when it was clear the draft selections were upside down, they will still say "it was a reasonable decision at the time because blah blah" instead of simply saying "ok it was wrong".
And it's not a problem when it's just draft nerds on the internet. The problem is when it's team execs, because then it sometimes becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because they give their top picks more opportunities/attention/PT/usage in an effort to prove their investment was right.