2025-26 Bucks/NBA Prediction Thread - Locks TODAY at NOON

[dedned]

69

[MickeyDavis]

ESPN has us ranked in the middle #14. Of course they lead off with the what will Giannis do angle.

Chances to make playoffs: 79.2%
Projected wins: 43.8

Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: What will the future hold for Giannis? Even though Antetokounmpo reiterated his current commitment to Milwaukee coming into the season, he firmly left the door open to playing elsewhere after this season if the Bucks can not prove to be a winner. The speculation will continue this season, putting pressure on the team to start the season strong, which could quiet the questions regarding Antetokounmpo's ability to win in Milwaukee.

Biggest strength: Shooting. The Bucks had the best 3-point percentage in the league last season, but ranked 18th in attempts, something they'd like to increase this season. Antetokounmpo's first preseason game last week against Chicago was a glimpse of what the Bucks hope to achieve. In the first 5½ of the game, Milwaukee generated 3-point attempts on six of its first 10 shots, knocking down four of them. Myles Turner and Antetokounmpo were also already raving about their potential as a pick-and-roll combo, and the mismatches they could create with two bigs playing off each other.

Biggest concern: Guard play and depth. The move to cut Damian Lillard allowed the Bucks to sign Turner, but it didn't give them much flexibility to improve the backcourt. Milwaukee will be counting on a few players -- Kevin Porter Jr.. Ryan Rollins and AJ Green -- to provide useful guard minutes and shotmaking each game. The roster's lack of depth makes it so the Bucks can't afford an injury that sidelines one of their starters for extended periods of time, especially Antetokounmpo. -- Collier

Bold (but realistic) prediction: Rollins is the Bucks' best guard. The former two-way player is behind a bunch of better-known players in Milwaukee's depth chart. But Rollins is already the best defender in Milwaukee's backcourt, and his 3-point stroke is promising enough (41% on relatively low volume last season) that he can be a viable two-way contributor. This is partially a prediction about believing in Rollins -- and partially a prediction about not believing in Milwaukee's other perimeter players. -- Kram

Number to watch: 38.9
It is a small sample size, but the Bucks outscored their opponents by 38.9 points per 100 possessions in 111 minutes when Antetokounmpo, Gary Trent Jr., Porter and Green shared the floor last season. That ranked in the top five among quartets to play 100 minutes together.

Fantasy nugget: The Bucks had the highest team 3-point percentage in the NBA last season. This isn't surprising, given the way opponents defend Antetokounmpo by packing the paint. That makes rotation players on the Bucks a good source of 3-pointers, which can help out in category leagues.

[SupremeHustle]

If we acquire a wing who can get bizzy in the playoffs, we'll go to the Finals and lose in six.

I have no idea about the regular season. 49 wins? Something like that.

I think OKC repeats. Jokic wins MVP. Matas Buzelis becomes my unexplainable new crush, following in the footsteps of Memo and Lauri.

[SupremeHustle]

Number to watch: 38.9
It is a small sample size, but the Bucks outscored their opponents by 38.9 points per 100 possessions in 111 minutes when Antetokounmpo, Gary Trent Jr., Porter and Green shared the floor last season. That ranked in the top five among quartets to play 100 minutes together.

Huh. That's not nothing.

[dbrodz7]

48 wins, Giannis mvp, 2nd round loss, super max signed a year from now.

[MickeyDavis]

Noon tomorrow this locks

[Ayt]

48 wins.

[emunney]

ESPN has us ranked in the middle #14. Of course they lead off with the what will Giannis do angle.

Chances to make playoffs: 79.2%
Projected wins: 43.8

Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: What will the future hold for Giannis? Even though Antetokounmpo reiterated his current commitment to Milwaukee coming into the season, he firmly left the door open to playing elsewhere after this season if the Bucks can not prove to be a winner. The speculation will continue this season, putting pressure on the team to start the season strong, which could quiet the questions regarding Antetokounmpo's ability to win in Milwaukee.

Biggest strength: Shooting. The Bucks had the best 3-point percentage in the league last season, but ranked 18th in attempts, something they'd like to increase this season. Antetokounmpo's first preseason game last week against Chicago was a glimpse of what the Bucks hope to achieve. In the first 5½ of the game, Milwaukee generated 3-point attempts on six of its first 10 shots, knocking down four of them. Myles Turner and Antetokounmpo were also already raving about their potential as a pick-and-roll combo, and the mismatches they could create with two bigs playing off each other.

Biggest concern: Guard play and depth. The move to cut Damian Lillard allowed the Bucks to sign Turner, but it didn't give them much flexibility to improve the backcourt. Milwaukee will be counting on a few players -- Kevin Porter Jr.. Ryan Rollins and AJ Green -- to provide useful guard minutes and shotmaking each game. The roster's lack of depth makes it so the Bucks can't afford an injury that sidelines one of their starters for extended periods of time, especially Antetokounmpo. -- Collier

Bold (but realistic) prediction: Rollins is the Bucks' best guard. The former two-way player is behind a bunch of better-known players in Milwaukee's depth chart. But Rollins is already the best defender in Milwaukee's backcourt, and his 3-point stroke is promising enough (41% on relatively low volume last season) that he can be a viable two-way contributor. This is partially a prediction about believing in Rollins -- and partially a prediction about not believing in Milwaukee's other perimeter players. -- Kram

Number to watch: 38.9
It is a small sample size, but the Bucks outscored their opponents by 38.9 points per 100 possessions in 111 minutes when Antetokounmpo, Gary Trent Jr., Porter and Green shared the floor last season. That ranked in the top five among quartets to play 100 minutes together.

Fantasy nugget: The Bucks had the highest team 3-point percentage in the NBA last season. This isn't surprising, given the way opponents defend Antetokounmpo by packing the paint. That makes rotation players on the Bucks a good source of 3-pointers, which can help out in category leagues.

This is the big point that STJ has been on but nobody in the media has even whispered.

[BUCKnation]

Thats the first time ive seen anyone in national media bring up that lineup data, which was what fans were crying out the whole last month of the season and what seems to be what the FO has tried to build upon with the offseason

[Ron Swanson]

Even ESPN was probably like, "Bucks fans won't shut the **** up about that 100-minute sample size so alright, geez we'll throw it in the write-up".

[crkone]

49-33. Lose in the quarters

[FrieAaron]

I do think the floor is lower for this team than one with Dame, but with getting significantly younger and more athletic, pairing Giannis with ideal fit with him at C, and not forcing starting lineups with TP and Kuz I still like our chances to improve overall, assuming health. I'll say 51-31

[Serge28]

50-32, 3rd seed, lose in ECF

[Garbs_7]

47 wins - Giannis runner up MVP. 2nd round exit

[DutchManDanFan]

48 wins, Giannis mvp, 2nd round loss, super max signed a year from now.

This is not possible. Giannis might win mvp with 60 wins.

We'll get over 50, but not much: 51

[midranger]

I’m looking forward to the first year where we don’t play my turn-your turn iso ball with Giannis and Jabari/Khris/Jrue/Dame. To some extent, it probably limits our ceiling not having multiple guys who can create shots in half court, but it should yield a more aesthetically pleasing, faster brand of basketball.

The record goes as Giannis goes.

If he misses a bunch of games, we’ll miss the playoffs. If he rests in 10 and we can eke out 4-6 in those games, we’ll win 54 and he’ll be MVP again.

Main concerns: how to stop/slow down opposing wing scorers, and how do we fair in non Giannis minutes?

[raferfenix]

This time of year especially I allow myself the gift of optimism until proven otherwise.

When Myles Turner was asked what it was like to play with Giannis in a game for the first time he responded:

Man, he 'bout change my life, man. It's different to be on the other side of it, it's interesting, the mental warfare that goes into game planning against someone like Giannis. He just makes the game so easy for guys around him.

Turner leveling up at this stage of his career would be surprising but you only need to look to Brook to see how career-changing (if not life-changing) the Giannis effect can be.

That in turn will have a catalyzing effect across the roster on the court.

But also off the court where Myles has embraced Milwaukee like few others:

I'm embracing change— embracing this cool part of my career. I'm heading into my prime. I'm in a city now that wants to celebrate me. There's a great quote that says 'go where you're celebrated'. I feel like that's here. People are excited to have me here.

Yes Turner just got paid but he's got everything else on the line based on whether or not Giannis sees a long term partnership with him in Wisconsin -- one more important even than what he fostered with Lopez who never was #2 in the pecking order here.

I'm daring to dream it happens.

[machu46]

Been thinking all offseason we end up in the 45-50 win range. I'll split the difference and say 47.

Not really predictions or anything, but some thoughts I have about this team:

Not exactly an original thought here, but Giannis + shooters = good. This teams feels like it's been built with a good idea in mind even if our resources to get there are pretty limited.

Big question #1: where does our secondary creation come from? Giannis is obviously going to be asked to do a ton, but who else will be able to successfully put pressure on the defense, get them rotating, etc.? The options are (1) Doc Rivers reaching into a bag he hasn't shown consistently to get our shooters on the move, (2) Kevin Porter's relatively small sample size of great play for us not being an aberration, or (3) Kuzma having a bounceback season from what was by far the worst of his career. Basically by default, I think Kuzma will be better this season but better enough for it to really matter? We'll see. I would generally think after 6 seasons, the small sample of Porter being very good was just an outlier and he'll fall back down to earth this season, but he's still only 25; hopefully things just finally clicked for him. I had essentially written the Doc part of the equation off, but that clip with Tim Legler was legitimately great...this question to me (along with health) is what will determine if we're closer to 50 wins or closer to 40.

Big question #2: how do we handle the PG rotation? I have to imagine we have relatively big plans for Porter this season, but Cole Anthony and Rollins probably need minutes too. I'm just really curious to see how that rotation shakes out. My hunch is that Porter will be the unquestioned starter unless he fails, and Cole/Rollins will each have games where they play 20+ minutes and then play less than 10 the following game and we struggle to get really consistent minutes out of them.

At any rate, I still tend to think this team will be greater than the sum of its parts. Don't think it's likely that we're a true contender, but hopefully can have a fun season and maybe get lucky and have a surprising playoff run.

[paulpressey25]

STJ is correct, we’re a great small forward (prime Middleton) away from true contention. Have no clue how we get that guy however.

Just hoping for health and that Doc doesn’t play politics with his rotations and plays the best guys.

[BuckFan25226]

Vegas has the Bucks O/U win total 42.5-43.5. I threw down a nice chunk on the over. I'm more excited about this season than I have been in a few years.


51 wins due to some inevitable resting and injury issues. If we stay relatively healthy. 56 wins.