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PG: Bucks beat Portland

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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#101 » by paulpressey25 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 7:47 pm

ampd wrote:Letting him walk in free agency is insane. It's either pay him or trade him. Anything else is a fire the GM offense. Similar situation with Monta. If we think he is opting out and we aren't going to pay him (please tell me we aren't), we need to trade him.


Yeah. As much as I bang on those two players, they are far bigger assets than Ramon and CV were four years ago and Hammond let them both go for......nothing.

We can't let that happen with Jennings and Monta.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#102 » by ampd » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:01 pm

And we really need to trade Monta if we aren't planning to extend him regardless of if he opts in. We can't afford for him to have another season like this and have his value drop even further. One season of below career levels with us can be attributed to a bad fit, but 2.5 seasons will scare away some potential buyers
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#103 » by ampd » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:05 pm

[quot"showtimesam"]Ersan has also been getting better each game at hitting the cutter or mixing in pump fakes[/quote]

The Ersan pump fake is legendary but I'm honestly at the point where maybe we ought to consider putting a shock collar on him in practice and zapping him every time he does it. The times he pump fakes himself into trouble vastly outnumber the times that he pump fakes and something good happens. Its a sign of a lack of confidence just like when he isn't in there tipping rebounds all over the place.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#104 » by DanoMac » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:11 pm

Epicurus wrote:Maybe, unlike you, Stotts knows that In the last 20 years, 38 rookies (16 of whom were ROYs) have played 35 MPG or more. 6 of them averaged more than Lilliard has so far this year (Damon Stoudamire, Allen Iverson, Shane Battier, LeBron James, Michael Finley and Tim Duncan).

Maybe he also knows, unlike you, that 114 players in the last 20 years have played 40 minutes or more per year. But then he is not dependent upon the echo chamber from uninformed sports media.


Settle down, Terry.

You use 38 rookies in the last 20 years. That's less than 2 rookies a season averaging that, and of the ones you listed, 3 are superstars and some of the best players we've ever seen in the game.

There's 5 players IN THE ENTIRE NBA averaging more minutes than Lillard. Luol Deng, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, James Harden, AND NICOLAS BATUM. Lillard is 0.8 MPG away from taking the #1 spot. Lillard, obviously, leads all rookies in MPG with 39. The closest to him is Brad Beal at 31 MPG. Obviously this criticism against Stotts playing his starters more than he should is valid.

Sure, the 114 players argument is great. But you don't play a rookie 39 MPG. That's lunacy. Especially at the point guard position. Lillard's been fantastic, but you gotta cut his minutes a bit to keep him fresh for the 2nd half. Every coach knows that. Every knowledgeable NBA fan knows that. I wonder if you don't fall into that category.

Was my original post a dig at Stotts? Absolutely. And that seems to have offended you, and I apologize. I don't know if you're a family member, or wife, of Terry's or something.

So maybe what Neil Olshey needs to do is acquire a better backup PG than AJ Price, so Stotts has a little someone more proven, and well, better to put in for Lillard.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#105 » by Baddy Chuck » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:30 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Anyone who says we win 8 more games over a full season with Jrue Holiday over Jennings clearly has a massive agenda against him. I can understand fearing overpaying him, but to act like he's gutter trash is amazing to me.

I think it's fairly easy to believe that we could be that much better. There isn't one thing on the court Brandon does better then Jrue this season. You can state that their career are the same but that can go back to the players breaking out in 4 seasons or less thing. Jrue is doing it, even after getting his extension, Brandon hasn't.

The one stat I love is 41.7% of teammates field goals are assisted by Jrue when he is on the floor. He is one of the best creators in the league. Jennings is sitting a paltry 26.3.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#106 » by Epicurus » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:35 pm

44% of the players with 40 and more minutes were under 25. Also Lilliard is a 4 year college player at 22. Yes, it would be nice to rest him more, all things being equal. But is it certain that the harms you project will occur? No, not every knowledgable persons accepts your certainty regarding amount of playing time for a rookie (obviously,as I point out and to which your refutation is not very compelling, 38 didn't). Unfounded certitude offends me. Repeating folklore as absolute truth offends me. Always has. Always will.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#107 » by emunney » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:37 pm

Lillard seems like he's in good enough condition to play 40mpg. I'm sure he'll get tired at the end of some games, and he'll have a shorter career if he stays at that level, but I think with their backups it's clearly the better short term move to play him until his legs fall off. If they're trying to win, of course.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#108 » by mattg » Sun Jan 20, 2013 8:56 pm

Baddy Chuck wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:Anyone who says we win 8 more games over a full season with Jrue Holiday over Jennings clearly has a massive agenda against him. I can understand fearing overpaying him, but to act like he's gutter trash is amazing to me.

I think it's fairly easy to believe that we could be that much better. There isn't one thing on the court Brandon does better then Jrue this season. You can state that their career are the same but that can go back to the players breaking out in 4 seasons or less thing. Jrue is doing it, even after getting his extension, Brandon hasn't.

The one stat I love is 41.7% of teammates field goals are assisted by Jrue when he is on the floor. He is one of the best creators in the league. Jennings is sitting a paltry 26.3.

8 games is a massive difference, there's no way. And holiday is a turnover machine while jennings is one of the best in the league at protecting the ball, so there's that.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#109 » by Baddy Chuck » Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:02 pm

mattg wrote:
Baddy Chuck wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:Anyone who says we win 8 more games over a full season with Jrue Holiday over Jennings clearly has a massive agenda against him. I can understand fearing overpaying him, but to act like he's gutter trash is amazing to me.

I think it's fairly easy to believe that we could be that much better. There isn't one thing on the court Brandon does better then Jrue this season. You can state that their career are the same but that can go back to the players breaking out in 4 seasons or less thing. Jrue is doing it, even after getting his extension, Brandon hasn't.

The one stat I love is 41.7% of teammates field goals are assisted by Jrue when he is on the floor. He is one of the best creators in the league. Jennings is sitting a paltry 26.3.

8 games is a massive difference, there's no way. And holiday is a turnover machine while jennings is one of the best in the league at protecting the ball, so there's that.

If we are say a 40 win team right now without a point guard who can actually defend, create for others and score efficiently I don't think it's that far out there.

As for turnovers, I will say Brandon is better in that regard. Jrue is one turnover a game worse while getting over 3 assists a game more, I'd take that trade off. Some of those ridiculous shots Jennings takes are just as bad as a turnover though.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#110 » by mattg » Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:08 pm

No, a turnover is always always worse than a missed shot. And this narrative that Jennings can't defend is ridiculous. We just saw him last night utterly dominate and disrupt portlands perimeter in the first half with ball pressure and quick hands but of course that's not defense.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#111 » by ampd » Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:15 pm

Baddy Chuck wrote:I think it's fairly easy to believe that we could be that much better. There isn't one thing on the court Brandon does better then Jrue this season.


Except creating turnovers and not turning the ball over of course, areas where Jennings has been much much better. An assist is as good as a turnover is bad. BJ even has better Synergy / PER against / Drtg so its arguable he's been just as good of a defender individually. If there is a gap, its not nearly 8 games.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#112 » by DanoMac » Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:16 pm

Epicurus wrote:44% of the players with 40 and more minutes were under 25. Also Lilliard is a 4 year college player at 22.


Age doesn't matter when you're a rookie. A rookie is a rookie. You're learning the NBA game for the first time, whether you're 19 or 22. And the point guard position, by far the hardest position to grasp in the NBA. The one PG you mentioned in your 38 rookies averaging 35 MPG or more (Damon Stoudamire) didn't turn out too well, did he? And no, I'm not counting Iverson as a PG. Also, Iverson, LeBron, Duncan were all #1 overall picks, and again, not point guards.

And his name is Damian Lillard, not Lilliard.

Epicurus wrote:But is it certain that the harms you project will occur? No, not every knowledgable persons accepts your certainty regarding amount of playing time for a rookie (obviously,as I point out and to which your refutation is not very compelling, 38 didn't).


No. Is it certain Damian Lillard is going to be a superstar? Is it certain he's not having a Brandon Jennings fluke first half of the season?

What's certain is that 2 Blazers are top 5 in the league in MPG. One being your rookie year point guard. That's asinine if that's normal to you.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#113 » by DanoMac » Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:20 pm

emunney wrote:Lillard seems like he's in good enough condition to play 40mpg. I'm sure he'll get tired at the end of some games, and he'll have a shorter career if he stays at that level, but I think with their backups it's clearly the better short term move to play him until his legs fall off. If they're trying to win, of course.


I'm sure most, if not all NBA PG's are in good enough condition to play 40 MPG. But why beat the hell out of your rookie point guard?

The Blazers have **** up so much, like us. Probably worse than us. One thing you can't do is wear out your rookie point guard.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#114 » by Baddy Chuck » Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:42 pm

mattg wrote:No, a turnover is always always worse than a missed shot. And this narrative that Jennings can't defend is ridiculous. We just saw him last night utterly dominate and disrupt portlands perimeter in the first half with ball pressure and quick hands but of course that's not defense.

I agree a turnover is worse then a missed shot, Brandon misses more shots, with less PPG on much worse efficiency. Also, Jrue averages 1 turnover more. Let's say the league average is probably 1.5 point per possession, Jrue is giving up 1.5 points a game to the other well creating at the bare minimum 6.4 points more for his team then Jennings. That's a tradeoff you take any day of the week.

As for defense, Monta Ellis got 4 steals in that quarter as well, you going praise him for his defensive prowess? I could probably march Dalembert out there for 30 minutes a game and he'd get 2+ blocks a game, does that make him a good defender? Jennings is a good on the ball defender, you throw a pick his way or any dribble penetration and he is atrocious. We see those glaring holes in his game every time there isn't a premier defender like Bogut or Larry in the post to fix his mistakes. Jrue Holiday may not get the steals, but he is a much better defender.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#115 » by Nebula1 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:00 pm

Mike Finley should get HOF consideration.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#116 » by ampd » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:04 pm

Its not accurate to say that an assist is 2 points better than no assist. At absolute best (which is a lot better than reality) an assist 'creates' more points than the player just shooting it instead would have. So Jrue at .530 TS would (again at best) create something like 0.9 points with an assist on average, although it would obviously depend on the situation.

Code: Select all

team offensive effiicency leaders
OKC
NY
MIA
LAC
SAS

Assist leaders

SAS
LAC
DEN
ORL
ATL
BOS


3 of the 5 best offenses aren't even in the top 10 in team assists. Assist stats are great but they aren't as important to the offense as some of you guys seem to think. Otherwise the 76ers wouldn't be just as bad offensively as the bucks despite having this amazing playmaking PG.

Even if you use Assist%, Miami sneaks into the top 10 but OKC and NYK are in the bottom half of the league (NYK is 22nd even).
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#117 » by Bobicous » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:11 pm

Why is it so hard who actually watch the game to see why Jennings assist total isn't as good as other point guards, the Bucks don't play a style of O that the point dominates. (the lack of good shooting doesn't help either) If you look at the Sixers stats Jru has most of their assist, with Turner 2nd and then everyone else under 2 assist per game. Beyond that we don't have an option to get Jru, what we have is Jennings and I am not sure why everyone is such a rush to get rid of him with no viable replacement.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#118 » by -Jragon- » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:16 pm

No POG thread? Is that bad luck now or something?
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#119 » by 4xBuck » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:17 pm

Bobicous wrote:Why is it so hard who actually watch the game to see why Jennings assist total isn't as good as other point guards, the Bucks don't play a style of O that the point dominates. (the lack of good shooting doesn't help either) If you look at the Sixers stats Jru has most of their assist, with Turner 2nd and then everyone else under 2 assist per game. Beyond that we don't have an option to get Jru, what we have is Jennings and I am not sure why everyone is such a rush to get rid of him with no viable replacement.


Again, it comes back to an agenda of bellyaching about the Bucks in general & specifically all things Jennings by few posters.
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Re: PG: Bucks beat Portland 

Post#120 » by El Duderino » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:27 pm

mattg wrote:
Baddy Chuck wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:Anyone who says we win 8 more games over a full season with Jrue Holiday over Jennings clearly has a massive agenda against him. I can understand fearing overpaying him, but to act like he's gutter trash is amazing to me.

I think it's fairly easy to believe that we could be that much better. There isn't one thing on the court Brandon does better then Jrue this season. You can state that their career are the same but that can go back to the players breaking out in 4 seasons or less thing. Jrue is doing it, even after getting his extension, Brandon hasn't.

The one stat I love is 41.7% of teammates field goals are assisted by Jrue when he is on the floor. He is one of the best creators in the league. Jennings is sitting a paltry 26.3.

8 games is a massive difference, there's no way.


I'm no big fan of Jennings, but i agree that no way is Holiday 8 wins better than Jennings.

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