RealGM

Ford's big board came out yesterday, or at least a more detailed version. I thought we could kick off the discussion of our inevitable lotto pick with a new thread.

Top 30:

1 - Andrew Wiggins
2 - Julius Randle
3 - Dante Exum
4 - Jabari Parker
5 - Marcus Smart
6 - Aaron Gordon
7 - Andrew Harrison
8 - Joel Emblid
9 - Dario Saric
10 - Chris Walker
11 - Montrezi Harrell
12 - Gary Harris
13 - Glenn Robinson III
14 - Willie Cauley-Stein
15 - Mario Hezonja
16 - Mitch McGary
17 - Jerami Grant
18 - Sam Dekker
19 - Jarnell Stokes
20 - James Young
21 - Alex Poythress
22 - LaQuinton Ross
23 - Semaj Christon
24 - Jahil Carson
25 - Dakari Johnson
26 - Aaron Harrison
27 - Doug MeDermott
28 - Isaiah Austin
29 - James McAdoo
30 - Vasilije Micic

Notes:

• Ford says scouts believe the run on sure-fire all stars ends after #7 and Harrison.

• Exum is a darkhorse candidate for #1 overall, and I fully buy that. The more I watch him the more I think I'm looking at the next great two way PG. Positional importance might make him more valuable than Wiggins.

• Even if Ford is correct and there are seven surefire all-stars, there isn't a lack of upside with guys outside of the top seven. A team picking #10 should get an intriguing guy.

• My early favorites: basically everyone in the top 10, because why not.

I told my buddy all-stars through #7 yesterday, would love to land in that range.

"Seven surefire all-stars" is patently ridiculous. I like those guys but I bet at least two of them never play in an AS game.

Top Five or bust.

Also this thread's subtitle should be Dekker Watch '14, because that's who we're getting.

I don't think Dekker leaves next year. After junior year, maybe.

emunney wrote:"Seven surefire all-stars" is patently ridiculous. I like those guys but I bet at least two of them never play in an AS game.

I agree. This would be the first draft in history if pre-season projections end up being close to reality. Some guys in the top ten will underperform next season and drop, we probably see a handful return for their sophomore years and things look less rosey next June.

But christ, imagine if these kids live up to expectations.

Even if Ford is correct and there are seven surefire all-stars, there isn't a lack of upside with guys outside of the top seven. A team picking #10 should get an intriguing guy.

Totally agree. So long as we get a top 10 pick, we have a real good shot at landing an impact player. Even at 20 and 21 you got guys like James Young and Alex Poythress who were considered top 10 prospects not too long ago. The top talent, as usual, is where it's at, but this draft has a lot of depth too. Cauley-Stein, Harris, and Saric are also guys I think can be all-stars in the league.

Bound to take Glenn Robinson JR or Dekker.

If we end up outside the Top 10, I think a guy like Mario Hezonja could be the pick. The way we're going international, this is a guy that seems to fit a position of need, could be a home run pick if you can get his head on straight --- sounds incredibly talented but mentality is questionable per DX. But a bigger wing player that can shoot and you have Mayo to bridge the gap. A possibly value pick if we end up in the 11-15 range.

The nostalgia in me would think it would be cool to Glenn Robinson III picked by us, but I think with Giannis that its unlikely we'll go that way unless Giannis looks like a bigger project than anticipated and GR3 is clearly the BPA at the time we pick.

ReasonablySober wrote:

emunney wrote:"Seven surefire all-stars" is patently ridiculous. I like those guys but I bet at least two of them never play in an AS game.

I agree. This would be the first draft in history if pre-season projections end up being close to reality. Some guys in the top ten will underperform next season and drop, we probably see a handful return for their sophomore years and things look less rosey next June.

But christ, imagine if these kids live up to expectations.

The expectations are so high at this point that if even three live up to them, the league landscape will be dramatically altered for the next decade. But in reality, you're going to see a lot of them not live up to expectations for various reasons. Randle will decide he should be a 3. Smart's skillset won't develop. Parker will get fat. Not saying any of these particular things will happen, just trying to put out a sense of all the things that can go wrong with players this young and, realistically, this far from being the great players they're expected to become. It is remarkably easy to derail a young player. The attrition rate for prospects, even top prospects, is way too high.

BTW, Fraschilla said Yanni would have been top 5 in this class.

Most of the great drafts lived up to the hype.

Look at the 1984 draft. Stunning.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_NBA_draft

1994 was also one of those hyped drafts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_NBA_draft

2003 did well.

2007 I'm still unsure on. I think that didn't meet expectations.

Exum grows on me the more I watch but there's still no way I'd take him over Wiggins.

I'm really not sold on Smart, and Saric is going to depend on the system and players around him etc. Curious to see if guys like Gary Harris, Poythress, or Isiah Austin can make a big leap.

paulpressey25 wrote:Most of the great drafts lived up to the hype.

Look at the 1984 draft. Stunning.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_NBA_draft

1994 was also one of those hyped drafts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_NBA_draft

2003 did well.

2007 I'm still unsure on. I think that didn't meet expectations.

I'm sure a lot of it has to do with Oden and how his career has played out (thus far). Him and Durant were supposed to alter the landscape of the Western conference. I'd say Horford lived up to expectations, and Noah has exceeded expectations. Other than that though, Brewer has turned into a journeyman, Jeff Green hasn't lived up to the potential, and we all know what happened to Yi

I'd say that it was a pretty hit or miss draft. So yeah, it didn't exactly meet expectations, but 3 or 4 all-star players is about normal for every draft.

DocHoliday wrote:I'm really not sold on Smart, and Saric is going to depend on the system and players around him etc. Curious to see if guys like Gary Harris, Poythress, or Isiah Austin can make a big leap.

Yeah I really like Harris' potential a lot, and I think if a team nabs him outside the top 10 it'll be a huge steal. Crazy how Ford has a guy like James Young at 20 too, because I think he is one of the most polished scorers in the draft still.

He has one of the smoothest jumpers in the entire class, and I can see him thriving in the right offense. Only real weakness I see is he doesn't have the elite quickness and defensive instincts of the other top prospects. Would have most likely been a top 10 pick in the last draft.

I'd be fine with a number of these guys. Even a late lotto guy like GRIII can probably play SG in the NBA, and do it well. I think he's kind of similar to a guy like Wes Mathews. Probably not a franchise changer, but it looks like there are good players throughout the lottery.

Ah, who am I kidding. Dante Exum or bust!

paulpressey25 wrote:Top Five or bust.

This. It's really gotta be top 5. If we win 30 games this year and somehow get a top 5 pick, then I'm actually really excited for this team and franchise for the first time in a long time.

Exum would be a great fit here if Giannis pans out over the next few years and Knight progresses with Drew.

Knight/Wolters/Exum
Exum/Mayo (or future acquisition/Knight
Giannis/Middleton/Delfino (or future acquisition)
Ersan/Henson/Sanders
Sanders/Henson/Zaza

That could be a great team in the future. Obviously Wiggins and probably Parker would be great fits as well.

Isaiah Austin is a guy who I think could potentially get into the top 7 picks.

Isn't Exum going to college in December or something like that and won't be draft eligible until '15?