RealGM

buckboy wrote:Very confused by the Virginia line. Virginia seems to good to be true so they probably are.

Wanted to get 10 units but only bet 4.

Considered that one too but yeah something seemed fishy. Louisville really needs a win to solidify tourney berth and get out of last 4. Wondering if they get this one.

Thunder Muscle wrote:

buckboy wrote:Very confused by the Virginia line. Virginia seems to good to be true so they probably are.

Wanted to get 10 units but only bet 4.

Considered that one too but yeah something seemed fishy. Louisville really needs a win to solidify tourney berth and get out of last 4. Wondering if they get this one.

I know. They've been pretty terrible lately though. I think that win at VT was an anomaly.

Nice night, went 4-1 tonight. Only loss was Northwestern lost by 8.

Yep. Too good to be true.

At least they Won though. Screw Louisville.

2-1 with Indy going.

Loss was UW, so idc haha

Was gonna take UVA 2nd half and was watching TV and forgot bah

Hit on my line movement games last night. One catching my eye today is 70% on UWGB but the line has dropped -4 to -1.5. That would suggest big money is coming in on Detroit. UWGB is playing fairly well into the tourney though, so I think it will be a stay away for me.

What's up with the Badgers line movement?

Tfence92 wrote:What's up with the Badgers line movement?

What did it end at? I saw +10.5 last night & a few hours ago. Was tempting. Could see single digit game.

Thunder Muscle wrote:Hit on my line movement games last night. One catching my eye today is 70% on UWGB but the line has dropped -4 to -1.5. That would suggest big money is coming in on Detroit. UWGB is playing fairly well into the tourney though, so I think it will be a stay away for me.

I used this method for a while. It's really tough. You have to time it. I lost money over a 6 month period fwiw.

Thunder Muscle wrote:

Tfence92 wrote:What's up with the Badgers line movement?

What did it end at? I saw +10.5 last night & a few hours ago. Was tempting. Could see single digit game.

It was down to 10 overnight, went back up to 12 this morning.

I went +11.5

buckboy wrote:

Thunder Muscle wrote:Hit on my line movement games last night. One catching my eye today is 70% on UWGB but the line has dropped -4 to -1.5. That would suggest big money is coming in on Detroit. UWGB is playing fairly well into the tourney though, so I think it will be a stay away for me.

I used this method for a while. It's really tough. You have to time it. I lost money over a 6 month period fwiw.

The thought process is sound.

More people lose money betting, so bet against big line movements.

Not as easy as it sounds though haha

No doubt. That's why I did it.

It was about 6 years ago. Not sure if that matters. It was a lot of bets though. Hundreds.

I have no idea how the UWGB game doesn't go over. With my luck this week, I'm guessing I'll find out though.

Hit on GB -2 yesterday. Going with a complete homer pick but taking MU-1.5 today. They need win, last game ever at BC, etc.

Something going on with the Big 12 today? Lol

Kansas and TT lines coming down a ton.

Hit on MU yesterday. Today I have...

UIC -1.5 vs. UWM.
Denver -2 vs. Oral Roberts
Philadelphia 76ers -1 @Milwaukee

Ugh I miss this. Tournament week betting, nothing better.

Ouch, think all 3 of my teams blew double digit 2nd half leads. Ended up 0-2-1. At least happy the Bucks won.

Tfence92 wrote:

buckboy wrote:

Thunder Muscle wrote:Hit on my line movement games last night. One catching my eye today is 70% on UWGB but the line has dropped -4 to -1.5. That would suggest big money is coming in on Detroit. UWGB is playing fairly well into the tourney though, so I think it will be a stay away for me.

I used this method for a while. It's really tough. You have to time it. I lost money over a 6 month period fwiw.

The thought process is sound.

More people lose money betting, so bet against big line movements.

Not as easy as it sounds though haha

Reverse line movement is a sound strategy. however, I wouldn't bet it every time you see it. especially in games with a close spread. 70% could be on UWGB giving points, but 80% of the ML bets could be on Detroit. also, games with less action don't hit as often with reverse line movement (just from personal experience). I also find that the ones that hit the most often are when a dog is receiving a majority of the bets but the line gets bigger for the fave, like the duke/UNC game on Saturday.

Going with Wilmington in the CAA semis. Both games with Northeastern went to OT this season. Wilmington extremely experienced in March.