OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto

[HaroldinGMinor]

Kinda funny going back and reading the bitcoin posts from Dec of 2017. In other news, the weed stocks have been doing great recently (today notwithstanding).

[M-C-G]

Kinda funny going back and reading the bitcoin posts from Dec of 2017. In other news, the weed stocks have been doing great recently (today notwithstanding).

I for one got really caught up in the crypto excitement and lost a small amount. No doubt there is money to be made there, but I'm still recoiling from the experience.

I started by weed portfolio really broadly, hit a couple of duds and largely consolidated into Canopy for the next couple of years. It has been a very wild ride, but thinking (hoping) it should be pretty stable going forward.

[HaroldinGMinor]

Bumping this as crypto has done really well so far this year. Weed stocks are all over the place and tariffs and trade wars are dumb.

[LUKE23]

I'm looking to get into investing, and know almost nothing. Any experienced people have a good place to start?

[midranger]

I'm looking to get into investing, and know almost nothing. Any experienced people have a good place to start?

If I remember correctly, you own your own business, right?

[LUKE23]

If I remember correctly, you own your own business, right?

Correct.

http://www.fieldsreserve.com/

[machu46]

I'm looking to get into investing, and know almost nothing. Any experienced people have a good place to start?

Obviously it depends on how much risk you want to have in your portfolio, but I generally would recommend ETFs to beginners; they're essentially mutual funds but more flexible and with fewer fees.

You can find ETFs for everything; an ETF that covers the S&P 500, an ETF that invests in real estate, an ETF that invests in bonds, etc. SPY is the S&P 500 one that I invest in. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/spy

You should be able to view what makes up each ETF as well so you can get an idea for some individual stocks, REITs, etc. that you might want to invest in based on that.

[HaroldinGMinor]

Index funds are a great place to start. Tiny fees and you'll get the same return as the market in which they invest. So as the S&P goes so will your portfolio. If you want to beat the market, well, good luck. Very few people can do that on a regular basis.

[MickeyDavis]

Index funds. Very low expenses and trying to beat the general market is tough and requires a lot of time. That said, nothing wrong with allocating a small portion of your portfolio to stock picking. It's fun. And it also depends on what your goals are. Is it all retirement money? Or will you need some of the money in the short term (say < 5 years) for other stuff

[sidney lanier]

Index funds. Very low expenses and trying to beat the general market is tough and requires a lot of time. That said, nothing wrong with allocating a small portion of your portfolio to stock picking. It's fun. And it also depends on what your goals are. Is it all retirement money? Or will you need some of the money in the short term (say < 5 years) for other stuff

Agree with both points. Getting in now may result in some short-term losses, as signs point to trouble ahead, but so what? You're probably looking at a time horizon of decades, not a year or two, and the evidence is overwhelming that you'll be OK with a broad-based approach to stocks. Unless our $19 trillion economy suddenly evaporates, in which case we're all in the bread lines no matter what we do.

It's fun to pick stocks as long as you stay kind of diversified so you don't get hurt if you act on an opinion that turns out to be wrong. Personally I'm overweighted in semiconductor equipment companies like Applied Materials because I think that no matter what direction new technology takes there will always be a need to manufacture the chips and things that run that technology. Maybe some new twist (graphene, for example) disrupts the way things work in that industry, or any industry, but if you've selected companies with good management it's reasonable to expect that they will adapt and adjust.

[midranger]

If I remember correctly, you own your own business, right?

Correct.

http://www.fieldsreserve.com/

As a small business owner, you probably want to make sure you’re utilizing all the available avenues to access tax advantaged accounts, both for you and co-owners. You’ve probably already done this, but I think a few thousand paid to a fee only financial guy could end up saving you a ton in the long run.

Sorry, that’s not incredibly helpful but the best advice I can give as a fellow co-owner of a small business

[jmart762]

I'm looking to get into investing, and know almost nothing. Any experienced people have a good place to start?

Gonna plug http://www.wdstrategies.com/
They manage alot of my friends and family accounts, including my own, and they're local.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

I'm looking to get into investing, and know almost nothing. Any experienced people have a good place to start?

Stolen from from the Mr Money mustache forum but the order is pretty simple. It might change slightly since you are a small business owner but the backbones are there. Emergency fund followed by some index fund retirement account/pay off high interest debt. It’s not sexy or fun but it’s smart.

WHAT
0. Establish an emergency fund to your satisfaction
1. Contribute to your 401k up to any company match
2. Pay off any debts with interest rates ~5% or more above the current 10-year Treasury note yield.
3. Max Health Savings Account (HSA) if eligible.
4. Max Traditional IRA or Roth (or backdoor Roth) based on income level
5. Max 401k (if
- 401k fees are lower than available in an IRA, or
- you need the 401k deduction to be eligible for (and desire) a tIRA deduction, or
- your earn too much for an IRA deduction and prefer traditional to Roth, then
swap #4 and #5)
6. Fund a mega backdoor Roth if applicable.
7. Pay off any debts with interest rates ~3% or more above the current 10-year Treasury note yield.
8. Invest in a taxable account and/or fund a 529 with any extra.

WHY
0. Give yourself at least enough buffer to avoid worries about bouncing checks
1. Company match rates are likely the highest percent return you can get on your money
2. When the guaranteed return is this high, take it.
3. HSA funds are totally tax free when used for medical expenses, making the HSA better than either traditional or Roth IRAs for that purpose.
At worst, the HSA behaves much the same as a tIRA after age 65.
4. Rule of thumb: traditional if current federal marginal rate is 22% or higher; Roth if 10% or lower, or if MAGI is too high to deduct a traditional IRA; flip a coin otherwise.
For those willing to expend a little more energy than it takes to flip a coin, consider comparing current marginal tax saving rate vs. predicted marginal withdrawal tax rate.
If current > predicted, use traditional. Otherwise use Roth.
See Credits can make Traditional better than Roth for lower incomes and other posts in that thread about some exceptions to the rule.
See Traditional versus Roth - Bogleheads for even more details and exceptions. State tax (or lack thereof) should also be considered.
The 'Calculations' tab in the Case Study Spreadsheet can show marginal rates for savings or withdrawals*.
5. See #4 for choice of traditional or Roth for 401k. In a 401k there are no income-based limits for deductions or contributions.
6. Applicability depends on the rules for the specific 401k. See Mega Backdoor Roth IRA.
7. Again, take the risk-free return if high enough. Note that embedded in "high enough" is the assumption that your alternative is "all stocks" or a "fund of funds"
(e.g., target retirement date) that provides a blend of stock and bond returns. If you wish to consider separate bond funds, compare the yield on a fund
with a duration similar to the time remaining on the loan, and put your money toward the one with the higher after-tax interest/yield.
8. Because taxable earnings will still help your FI journey. If your own retirement is in good shape, and you choose to provide significant help for children's college costs,
a 529 plan may be appropriate. Similar to "put on your own oxygen mask before assisting others," do consider funding your own retirement before funding 529 plans for children's college costs.

Speaking of things to do first, see Getting started - Bogleheads if this is all new. Working through that post and the links therein is also a good refresher, even if personal finance isn't completely new to you.

The emergency fund is your "no risk" money. You might consider one of these online banks:
http://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/earning-interest/best-online-savings-accounts275921001

It is up to you whether to consider "saving for a house down payment" as a "day to day expense", vs. lumping the down payment savings in with "taxable investments" at the end.

If you are renting, you may not be throwing away as much on rent as you might think. See
http://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/02/23/rent-v-owning-your-home-opportunity-cost-and-running-some-numbers/
for some thoughts.

For those concerned about "locking up" money in retirement accounts until age 59.5, see How to withdraw funds from your IRA and 401k without penalty before age 59.5.

If your 401k options are poor (i.e., high fund fees) you can check
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/to-401k-or-not-to-401k-that-is-the-question-43459/
for some thoughts on "how high is too high?"

The MAGI calculation for Roth IRA purposes is https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590a#en_US_2018_publink1000230985
Then see Retirement Topics IRA Contribution Limits | Internal Revenue Service.
The MAGI calculation for traditional IRA purposes is https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590a#en_US_2018_publink1000230489.
Then see IRA Deduction Limits | Internal Revenue Service

If one can swing the cash flow, getting in and out of an ESPP is ~"free money". But if one has to make a choice between deferring income in a 401k vs. taking the income and using it for an ESPP, it isn't the same. The benefits of employee stock purchase plans (ESPPs) relative to other opportunities is highly dependent on tax rates, because ESPP benefits all occur in taxable accounts.
- For someone paying 12% tax on ordinary income, and 0% on dividends and capital gains, ESPPs can be very favorable, perhaps competing with high interest rate loans in step 2.
- For someone paying 22% tax on ordinary income, and 15% on dividends and capital gains, ESPPs are not as favorable, perhaps coming between steps 6 and 7.

Priorities above apply when income is primarily through W-2 earnings. For those running their own businesses (e.g., rental property owner, small business owner, etc.),
putting money into that business might come somewhere before, in parallel with, or after step 5.

Why it is likely better to invest instead of paying a low interest rate mortgage early, if you have a long time until the mortgage is due:
https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-index-returns-1973-mid-2009-4061795
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html


*Estimating withdrawal tax rates is not an exact science, but here is one approach:
1) Estimate any guaranteed income. E.g., pension you can't defer in return for higher payments when you do start, rentals, etc.
2) Take current traditional balance and predict value at retirement (e.g., with Excel's FV function) using a conservative real return, maybe 3% or so. Take 4% of that value as an annual withdrawal.
3) Take current taxable balance and predict value at retirement (e.g., with Excel's FV function) using a conservative real return, maybe 3% or so. Take 2% of that value as qualified dividends.
4a) Decide whether SS income should be considered, or whether you will be able to do enough traditional->Roth conversions before taking SS.
4b) Include SS income projections (using today's dollars) if needed from step 4a.
5) Calculate marginal rate on withdrawals from traditional accounts using today's tax law on the numbers from step 1-4.
6) Make your traditional vs. Roth decision for this year's contribution
7) Repeat steps 1-6 every year until retirement

The steps above may look complicated at first, but you don't need great precision. The answer will either be "obvious" or "difficult to choose". If the latter, it likely won't make much difference which you pick anyway.

Note the possibility of self-defeating predictions:
a) predict high taxable retirement income > contribute to Roth > get low taxable retirement income
b) predict low taxable retirement income > contribute to traditional > get high taxable retirement income

Also, if you pick traditional and that ends up being wrong it will be because you have "too much money" - not the worst problem.
If you pick Roth and that ends up being wrong it will be because you have "too little money" - that can be a real problem.
Thus using traditional is a "safer" choice.

[BuckHole]

11/20/18 Gold spot price at $1221 oz. Remind me in a year if this was a good time to buy.

Gold at $1279/oz on 12/26/18. Let’s watch how high it’ll get.

Gold took a nice jump up today. It’s at $1391/oz on 5/20/19.

[M-C-G]

11/20/18 Gold spot price at $1221 oz. Remind me in a year if this was a good time to buy.

Gold at $1279/oz on 12/26/18. Let’s watch how high it’ll get.

Gold took a nice jump up today. It’s at $1391/oz on 5/20/19.

I have a few silver and gold plays that have been pretty solid albeit unspectacular.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[bizarro]

If I remember correctly, you own your own business, right?

Correct.

http://www.fieldsreserve.com/

Serious ? From a vantage point of ‘I want you to crush’...

Your website. Has a nice facade, but functionality? What’s going on. There’s no depth. I click key menu items and it goes to one pic or ‘404’ errors.

[fansinceforever]

Seems to be working fine for me other than the FAQ page.

[ackypoo]

i bought a bunch of kirkland gold at $20 a share. its been great. and ive been bagholding jnug for a year or so, and im finally in the black. woo. go gold.

[HaroldinGMinor]

If I remember correctly, you own your own business, right?

Correct.

http://www.fieldsreserve.com/

Serious ? From a vantage point of ‘I want you to crush’...

Your website. Has a nice facade, but functionality? What’s going on. There’s no depth. I click key menu items and it goes to one pic or ‘404’ errors.

I had no issues.

[bizarro]

Correct.

http://www.fieldsreserve.com/

Serious ? From a vantage point of ‘I want you to crush’...

Your website. Has a nice facade, but functionality? What’s going on. There’s no depth. I click key menu items and it goes to one pic or ‘404’ errors.

I had no issues.

Maybe it’s Tablet/IPad related? Anyhow, just trying to help. Really.