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OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto

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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1741 » by MickeyDavis » Thu May 21, 2020 8:02 pm

I think holiday consumer spending will definitely be down. A lot of people currently working won't be working by late fall. I have zero doubt there will be budget cuts in my company, in every department.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1742 » by Chambers15 » Fri May 22, 2020 7:55 pm

...
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1743 » by sidney lanier » Tue May 26, 2020 2:26 pm

A lot of irrational exuberance this morning. Not complaining; just puzzled.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1744 » by MickeyDavis » Tue May 26, 2020 2:50 pm

The exchange reopened today, people are now on site, that's why. There will still be ups and downs. I haven't changed a thing. I kept my current investments the same and the money I've been putting in since mid March is still going to the same places. Dollar cost averaging works well for me. Other than my one year of expenses I have nothing in cash.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1745 » by sidney lanier » Tue May 26, 2020 3:06 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:The exchange reopened today, people are now on site, that's why. There will still be ups and downs. I haven't changed a thing. I kept my current investments the same and the money I've been putting in since mid March is still going to the same places. Dollar cost averaging works well for me. Other than my one year of expenses I have nothing in cash.


Yeah, I saw them this morning with their masks and <6 feet of social distancing. Hope they wiped down the bell. :)

Nevertheless, being able to walk in the building seems like a flimsy excuse for a rally, but I guess the market is a funny thing.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1746 » by M-C-G » Wed May 27, 2020 1:15 pm

sidney lanier wrote:
Nevertheless, being able to walk in the building seems like a flimsy excuse for a rally, but I guess the market is a funny thing.


The longer I have been investing, the more I am coming to the realization that the market doesn't really work the way I thought it did. Good company, good earnings, expect SP to go up right? Nope, everything happens in advance, and the power and resources that institutional shorts (I have to assume it is institutional with the resources deployed) blows my mind.

Irrational runs and short squeezes, etc. do some really wild things to share prices.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1747 » by MickeyDavis » Wed May 27, 2020 2:48 pm

Yeah there is often no rational logic in the market. I used to do a lot of stock picking, I spent a lot of time doing both fundamental and technical analysis. I enjoyed tech analysis since stats are my profession. But I now do mostly simple dollar cost averaging in funds and ETF's and do just a little on individual stocks. I spend my analytical time on sports betting instead :)
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1748 » by HaroldinGMinor » Wed May 27, 2020 2:52 pm

I really wish Robinhood let you short. Zoom was so overpriced at 170
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1749 » by HaroldinGMinor » Wed May 27, 2020 2:56 pm

Article about why stocks are up:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stock-market-204223099.html

One reason:
Consider the outsized influence of Big Tech shares on indexes like the S&P 500. Five such stocks (Amazon, up 29%; Microsoft, up 17%) make up 20% of the S&P 500.

This improvement in shares of Big Tech offsets declines in other sectors, including Big Oil, which overall is down 35% but only comprises 3% of the S&P 500. In other words, this stock market’s gains are narrow, not broad based.




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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1750 » by jschligs » Wed May 27, 2020 3:03 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:I really wish Robinhood let you short. Zoom was so overpriced at 170


SHOP was as well, way overpriced. Could've done some sweet options though!
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1751 » by M-C-G » Wed May 27, 2020 3:10 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:Yeah there is often no rational logic in the market. I used to do a lot of stock picking, I spent a lot of time doing both fundamental and technical analysis. I enjoyed tech analysis since stats are my profession. But I now do mostly simple dollar cost averaging in funds and ETF's and do just a little on individual stocks. I spend my analytical time on sports betting instead :)


I'm heavier into individual stocks through the recovery, once I feel I've gotten the gains I was looking for, will likely shift to ETFs.

XAR and maybe JETs will be in my future.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1752 » by M-C-G » Wed May 27, 2020 3:13 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:Article about why stocks are up:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stock-market-204223099.html

One reason:
Consider the outsized influence of Big Tech shares on indexes like the S&P 500. Five such stocks (Amazon, up 29%; Microsoft, up 17%) make up 20% of the S&P 500.

This improvement in shares of Big Tech offsets declines in other sectors, including Big Oil, which overall is down 35% but only comprises 3% of the S&P 500. In other words, this stock market’s gains are narrow, not broad based.




I'm very curious if some of the rumors of anti trust lawsuits coming against FB, Google and Twitter...wondering if that is just made up chatter or if it is something real. If real, that would hit the S&P very, very hard in my opinion. But who knows, Facebook admits giving away personal info of 30M users (or whatever the Cambridge thing was) and it's stock rebounds within a week.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1753 » by BucksFanSD » Wed May 27, 2020 6:57 pm

It's looking like a v-shape or nike swoosh recovery.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1754 » by HaroldinGMinor » Mon Jun 1, 2020 2:13 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:I really wish Robinhood let you short. Zoom was so overpriced at 170


Annnnd it just passed $197 :lol:




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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1755 » by MartyConlonOnTheRun » Mon Jun 1, 2020 2:50 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:Article about why stocks are up:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stock-market-204223099.html

One reason:
Consider the outsized influence of Big Tech shares on indexes like the S&P 500. Five such stocks (Amazon, up 29%; Microsoft, up 17%) make up 20% of the S&P 500.

This improvement in shares of Big Tech offsets declines in other sectors, including Big Oil, which overall is down 35% but only comprises 3% of the S&P 500. In other words, this stock market’s gains are narrow, not broad based.

If you remove oil and only focus on pandemic affected stocks and overall the S&P500 has been crushing it even more. (I think most of oil's decline would've happened no matter what)

That said, I'm still a little bearish. 1/4 Americans are unemployed (Someone fact check me on that since all i got from google was 25% but not sure of the nuances) and UI checks stop coming in the mail 8 weeks from now.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1756 » by BucksFanSD » Wed Jun 3, 2020 3:29 pm

We might have stock market all time highs sometime this month. NASDAQ is getting close to all time highs.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1757 » by MickeyDavis » Wed Jun 3, 2020 4:12 pm

That's crazy. I know I keep hearing that COVID is factored into the market but I don't buy it. There are a lot of bad earnings numbers to come. Many companies (like mine) will have budget cuts. And budget cuts almost always include layoffs. I fully expect some in my company to lose their jobs by the end of the year. I don't know if we'll fully return to the bottoms of a couple months ago and I'd love for the Bear market to be over with but color me skeptical.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1758 » by BucksFanSD » Wed Jun 3, 2020 5:50 pm

We are so far away from the March bottoms that would be such a huge drop. I can't see the market ever going that low again ever myself. So much money was been pumped into this economy recently as has been done the last 10 years that the lesson has been you buy any dip. More money is coming too. Until it becomes an actual problem, stocks will run upwards over longer periods. The on-going stimulus, the current continuation of the economy re-opening and a vaccine later this year, will all allow the economy to improve more and more. Stocks are pricing all of that in right now. And inflation is coming.
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1759 » by MickeyDavis » Wed Jun 3, 2020 6:00 pm

Yeah a lot of money has been pumped in, and probably more to come. But that comes at a price. I doubt we'll go back to the March bottoms but I can see another significant dip by the end of the year
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Re: OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto 

Post#1760 » by BucksFanSD » Wed Jun 3, 2020 6:26 pm

There could be another significant drop, but there also could be continued light at the end of tunnel. For now a lot of Americans are making more money by not working (CARES act) and will eventually probably get an added bonus from the Gov for going to back to work as unemployment numbers likely get better as the summer goes on.

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