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2019 Draft Thread

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#381 » by LuessiT » Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:16 pm

emunney wrote:My question for you: what do you think Poole does if Thybulle is matched up on him?


One on one, not so much. That said basketball is 5 on 5. If you put Thybulle in a PnR, Poole is able to score on him. Also I don't think Thybulle can reliably stay attached if Poole runs sets off ball. And not every team has a Thybulle on their roster tracking one of your shooters and if they do, he's not guarding someone else. Also Thybulle is a considerably worse offensive player imo and he's 2 years older.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#382 » by emunney » Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:28 pm

LuessiT wrote:
emunney wrote:My question for you: what do you think Poole does if Thybulle is matched up on him?


One on one, not so much. That said basketball is 5 on 5. If you put Thybulle in a PnR, Poole is able to score on him. Also I don't think Thybulle can reliably stay attached if Poole runs sets off ball. And not every team has a Thybulle on their roster tracking one of your shooters and if they do, he's not guarding someone else. Also Thybulle is a considerably worse offensive player imo and he's 2 years older.


Well, I would have put money on Thybulle shutting down Poole two years ago, and I'd do it for two years from now, too. Not every team has a Thybulle but we would if we drafted him instead of Poole... I think about Thybulle just doing the linear shoot or attack closeout stuff in the NBA and I think he's going to be really good -- pace and space will suit him big time. But obviously the main thing is that he's averaging 4.1 steals and 2.6 blocks per game in the Pac 12 this year with reasonably good shooting and finishing indicators. The amount of ground he covers is unlike anything I've ever seen in college ball. I just want his havoc on this team.

That said, I still like some other guys who could be there for us. We should be able to get a player.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#383 » by LuessiT » Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:33 pm

emunney wrote:
LuessiT wrote:
emunney wrote:My question for you: what do you think Poole does if Thybulle is matched up on him?


One on one, not so much. That said basketball is 5 on 5. If you put Thybulle in a PnR, Poole is able to score on him. Also I don't think Thybulle can reliably stay attached if Poole runs sets off ball. And not every team has a Thybulle on their roster tracking one of your shooters and if they do, he's not guarding someone else. Also Thybulle is a considerably worse offensive player imo and he's 2 years older.


Well, I would have put money on Thybulle shutting down Poole two years ago, and I'd do it for two years from now, too. Not every team has a Thybulle but we would if we drafted him instead of Poole... I think about Thybulle just doing the linear shoot or attack closeout stuff in the NBA and I think he's going to be really good -- pace and space will suit him big time. But obviously the main thing is that he's averaging 4.1 steals and 2.6 blocks per game in the Pac 12 this year with reasonably good shooting and finishing indicators. The amount of ground he covers is unlike anything I've ever seen in college ball. I just want his havoc on this team.

That said, I still like some other guys who could be there for us. We should be able to get a player.


You can probably notice that I'm not super high on Thybulle. I probably would have been 2 years ago but I don't think his defensive impact will translate fully. There have been players with very high steal and/or block rates whose defensive ability didn't translate at a similar level in the NBA. Just look at Jevon Carter, Sindarius Thornwell, Jordan Bell, Gary Harris, etc.. I'm not saying he won't be a good defender but he's not going to have as much of an impact as he's having in college imo. Especially block rates from smaller players tend to plummet once they reach the nba level.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#384 » by emunney » Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:34 pm

Let's look at those guys /100 possessions in their last year compared to Thybulle.

Carter 4.9 steals, .6 blocks
Thornwell 3.6 steals, 1.6 blocks
Bell 1.7 steals, 3.1 blocks
Harris 3.4 steals, .8 blocks
Thybulle 6.9 steals, 4.5 blocks

I don't think *anybody* expects a 1:1 transition for anybody in any category from college to pros. But look at it this way: Harris is a good defender and was 10th in steals last year. Jevon Carter is a 2.7% steal rate guy as a rookie. Bell for his career is 1.4 steals and 2.5 blocks /36. I don't think it's accurate to say there's nothing coming through there. My low end expectation would be ~ 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks/36 minutes. That's not as eye-popping as what he's doing in college obviously but he'd be alone in the NBA with those numbers.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#385 » by Matches Malone » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:31 pm

I haven't paid much attention to college ball as much as I have in previous years. Can someone school me on Zion Williamson a bit?

I got intrigued when I saw Steve Kyler tweet that he's a generational talent somewhere between LeBron and AD so I had to check him out on Youtube and he looks damn explosive, but for the most part I don't see that type of skill set. I'll have to watch more because most of his highlights are just power dunks and spin moves. He made a few outside shots but took a lot of mid range shots in the videos I watched. Maybe it was just the video I watched cause when someone says generational talent and I see a schoolyard bully in the videos with okay skills, I question the statement.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#386 » by jakecronus8 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:14 pm

Hate to sound like a homer but I'm taking Howard if he's there at our pick. Kind of boom/bust but he has an elite skill and said skill is vital to our offense.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#387 » by Ron Swanson » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:26 pm

Think there are much safer bets than Howard, but it's hard to argue with 43% on 8+ 3PT attempts per game and 91% from the line. Feel like he's actually gonna go higher than people expect, kinda like Landry Shamet.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#388 » by Badgerlander » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:51 pm

emunney wrote:Let's look at those guys /100 possessions in their last year compared to Thybulle.

Carter 4.9 steals, .6 blocks
Thornwell 3.6 steals, 1.6 blocks
Bell 1.7 steals, 3.1 blocks
Harris 3.4 steals, .8 blocks
Thybulle 6.9 steals, 4.5 blocks

I don't think *anybody* expects a 1:1 transition for anybody in any category from college to pros. But look at it this way: Harris is a good defender and was 10th in steals last year. Jevon Carter is a 2.7% steal rate guy as a rookie. Bell for his career is 1.4 steals and 2.5 blocks /36. I don't think it's accurate to say there's nothing coming through there. My low end expectation would be ~ 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks/36 minutes. That's not as eye-popping as what he's doing in college obviously but he'd be alone in the NBA with those numbers.


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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#389 » by LuessiT » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:14 am

emunney wrote:Let's look at those guys /100 possessions in their last year compared to Thybulle.

Carter 4.9 steals, .6 blocks
Thornwell 3.6 steals, 1.6 blocks
Bell 1.7 steals, 3.1 blocks
Harris 3.4 steals, .8 blocks
Thybulle 6.9 steals, 4.5 blocks

I don't think *anybody* expects a 1:1 transition for anybody in any category from college to pros. But look at it this way: Harris is a good defender and was 10th in steals last year. Jevon Carter is a 2.7% steal rate guy as a rookie. Bell for his career is 1.4 steals and 2.5 blocks /36. I don't think it's accurate to say there's nothing coming through there. My low end expectation would be ~ 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks/36 minutes. That's not as eye-popping as what he's doing in college obviously but he'd be alone in the NBA with those numbers.


Eh I should have been clearer. I do think that steal rates especially translate. Shotblocking from guards is tricky. Imo weakside shotblocking translates pretty well even if you're a guard but blocking jump shooters does not in the same way. Offensive players are just taller, more athletic and better at creating contact so you have to play more conservatively.

My point is that those guys struggle to impact the game defensively at the NBA level for various reasons. I guess the jury is still out on Carter but I specifically named him cause he's in a different stage of his career.

I think Thybulle is going to struggle with his shot. There have been plenty of players with better shooting numbers in college that have struggled in the NBA. Playmaking and ball handling are also quite lacking.
And defensively he will struggle with defending some 2's and 1's. On the flipside I wouldn't worry about defending 3's or 4's on the perimeter.

His dog mentality does help. Imo that has a big impact on keeping a defense engaged (energy and effort, Drink!) and may have a bigger impact on winning than anything else. But there are other players that have that to.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#390 » by Frank Nova » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:34 am

Id love a flier on Naz Reid. I think hes a prototype modern NBA big. Offensively he has everything you want and more: elite footwork, face up and back to the basket post moves and a threat from 3. I know his defense is suspect but Big Jelly can play and at the end of the 1st round he is certainly someone worth considering if he declares.

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#391 » by Ruzious » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:32 pm

LuessiT wrote:
emunney wrote:
LuessiT wrote:
One on one, not so much. That said basketball is 5 on 5. If you put Thybulle in a PnR, Poole is able to score on him. Also I don't think Thybulle can reliably stay attached if Poole runs sets off ball. And not every team has a Thybulle on their roster tracking one of your shooters and if they do, he's not guarding someone else. Also Thybulle is a considerably worse offensive player imo and he's 2 years older.


Well, I would have put money on Thybulle shutting down Poole two years ago, and I'd do it for two years from now, too. Not every team has a Thybulle but we would if we drafted him instead of Poole... I think about Thybulle just doing the linear shoot or attack closeout stuff in the NBA and I think he's going to be really good -- pace and space will suit him big time. But obviously the main thing is that he's averaging 4.1 steals and 2.6 blocks per game in the Pac 12 this year with reasonably good shooting and finishing indicators. The amount of ground he covers is unlike anything I've ever seen in college ball. I just want his havoc on this team.

That said, I still like some other guys who could be there for us. We should be able to get a player.


You can probably notice that I'm not super high on Thybulle. I probably would have been 2 years ago but I don't think his defensive impact will translate fully. There have been players with very high steal and/or block rates whose defensive ability didn't translate at a similar level in the NBA. Just look at Jevon Carter, Sindarius Thornwell, Jordan Bell, Gary Harris, etc.. I'm not saying he won't be a good defender but he's not going to have as much of an impact as he's having in college imo. Especially block rates from smaller players tend to plummet once they reach the nba level.

None of those guys had his combination of blocks and steals - his numbers are sci fi freakish. That being said, he is an older prospect and shouldn't go in the 1st round. If he can show he can hit open corner 3's, he'll have a long NBA career. He's a Roberson type.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#392 » by emunney » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:38 pm

I'm not sure if I'd take him with our pick -- there are other guys who I really like who seem to be projected to be available. Still really high on Ponds and Norvell.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#393 » by LuessiT » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:52 pm

emunney wrote:I'm not sure if I'd take him with our pick -- there are other guys who I really like who seem to be projected to be available. Still really high on Ponds and Norvell.


I like Norvell. I also like him around our pick. As for Ponds, I have big problems taking undersized PGs. They just rarely have enough success in the NBA to warrant being drafted. Does he outplay lets say Frazier or Mack, who are available for the min? I don't see it.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#394 » by LuessiT » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:05 pm

Ruzious wrote:
LuessiT wrote:
emunney wrote:
Well, I would have put money on Thybulle shutting down Poole two years ago, and I'd do it for two years from now, too. Not every team has a Thybulle but we would if we drafted him instead of Poole... I think about Thybulle just doing the linear shoot or attack closeout stuff in the NBA and I think he's going to be really good -- pace and space will suit him big time. But obviously the main thing is that he's averaging 4.1 steals and 2.6 blocks per game in the Pac 12 this year with reasonably good shooting and finishing indicators. The amount of ground he covers is unlike anything I've ever seen in college ball. I just want his havoc on this team.

That said, I still like some other guys who could be there for us. We should be able to get a player.


You can probably notice that I'm not super high on Thybulle. I probably would have been 2 years ago but I don't think his defensive impact will translate fully. There have been players with very high steal and/or block rates whose defensive ability didn't translate at a similar level in the NBA. Just look at Jevon Carter, Sindarius Thornwell, Jordan Bell, Gary Harris, etc.. I'm not saying he won't be a good defender but he's not going to have as much of an impact as he's having in college imo. Especially block rates from smaller players tend to plummet once they reach the nba level.

None of those guys had his combination of blocks and steals - his numbers are sci fi freakish. That being said, he is an older prospect and shouldn't go in the 1st round. If he can show he can hit open corner 3's, he'll have a long NBA career. He's a Roberson type.


If you think he can be productive during his rookie contract (e.g. shoot the NBA 3 straight away), you should draft him in the lottery. But if he can't, drafting someone who has a long NBA career doesn't actually do anything for the drafting team.

I don't think that his defense is sure to translate. At least not straight away. His teams defensive system inflates his numbers and I'm not sure he can replicate them in the NBA. I'm pretty sure his block rate will plummet. Also the general importance of 1 on 1 defense in the NBA is much lower than in college.
Also I think it's highly probable that he can't make the NBA 3 at a reasonable clip. He's not a prolific shooter and hasn't really displayed being able to shoot from NBA range. Corner 3's yes, NBA 3's probably not. And if he can't do that, he's going to have a tough time seeing the floor.

Like I get why one would like Thybulle. I'm just not a believer based on past success of somewhat similar prospects.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#395 » by Ron Swanson » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:23 pm

I'd take Howard over Thybulle. Just don't have faith that Thybulle's ever gonna be a serviceable enough offensive player at the next level. He's not as big as Roberson and expecting him to reach that level of defender is a pretty big long shot anyways.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#396 » by M-C-G » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:37 pm

Is Marcus Howard MoWill2.0? I haven't caught much of him playing, but the one game I did, reminded me of Mo
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#397 » by Ruzious » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:42 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:I'd take Howard over Thybulle. Just don't have faith that Thybulle's ever gonna be a serviceable enough offensive player at the next level. He's not as big as Roberson and expecting him to reach that level of defender is a pretty big long shot anyways.

There's not much difference in size. Roberson was 6'7 206 with a 6'11 wingspan at the Chicago combine. Thybulle's probably 6'6, looks at least 200 and supposedly has a 7' wingspan.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#398 » by machu46 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:19 pm

I haven't really done a good enough job to have super solidified opinions about most of this year's draft prospects, but I'm definitely a little intrigued by Shamorie Ponds.

And we should stay away from any Syracuse players that are foolish enough to declare for the draft this year.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#399 » by emunney » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:20 pm

M-C-G wrote:Is Marcus Howard MoWill2.0? I haven't caught much of him playing, but the one game I did, reminded me of Mo


If we're going to compare him to recent draftees, I don't think you'd have to look much further than Trae Young with less playmaking but better shooting. By my estimation he's the best all-around shooter the NCAA has seen in a while, maybe going back to Redick.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread 

Post#400 » by emunney » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:42 pm

He's a lot like Jimmer, probably ultimately more like Jimmer than Trae Young.
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