Giannis Thread - MVP

[humanrefutation]

You just let him shoot 38% from 3 is the answer.

Good defenses try do that right now, and he still manages to get the vast majority of his buckets in the paint. Whether it's through transition, or through drives to the paint, or through post play, Giannis cannot be effectively shielded from shooting inside the paint without defenses being forced to deploy desperate measures - namely, double and triple teams - to guard him. And if that happens, he'll be able to exploit that with his passing due to his length and vision.

Or, in the alternative, take a wide open shot from three and make them. When he wants a rest.

Shooting pretty well from three also makes him more dangerous in late-game situations, is less taxing on his body, and will help him as he ages and his athleticism wears down.

I am admittedly getting a bit galaxy-brained here when thinking about the possibilities, but Giannis with a three point shot feels like a longer LeBron.

Yeah, obviously he does whatever he wants off the dribble or in the post most of the time, but that's not really the question, is it? The question is what do you do if him shooting 38% holds up, and the answer is: nothing differently. You still pack the paint, you still do whatever you can to keep him away from the rim, because, and I assume all good defensive coaches know this as a first principle in defending the Bucks, Giannis attacking the rim is death. Here's an illustration of why this is how teams should handle his improved 3pt shooting this way:

Read on Twitter

As Ben points out, getting more aggressive in taking away his wide open 3 point looks only makes the rest of his game, which is already worse for you, even more worser for you! You just lay back and hope he misses that ****.

I understand the points per shot argument. It makes logical sense that you'd rather him take a three in that situation.

But I'm just saying that, practically, teams just can't lay back and let him shoot threes. The three second rule means that they can only stand in the lane for so long to protect against him driving into the lane. And Giannis is so explosive, takes such long strides, and has such good footwork that he can overcome most defenders that try to push that line between "closely guarding" a defender and having an illegal defensive position. His brilliance is in his ability to exploit that right now even when they lay back. Being able to credibly hit a three when that defensive rotation doesn't bother to chase you to the perimeter would be even more devastating in this offense.

He'd become the toughest player to guard in basketball, IMO.

[Balls2TheWalls]

All he really has to do is force bigs to step out at his 3. Right now they just sag and watch him. He's shooting 45% from three this month, and teams know that. They know that he is working on it. As soon as they have to respect it, then he is going to get terrifyingly free baskets going to the rim. Either that or he is gonna start getting hard fouled a lot.

[Bucksmaniac]

All he really has to do is force bigs to step out at his 3. Right now they just sag and watch him. He's shooting 45% from three this month, and teams know that. They know that he is working on it. As soon as they have to respect it, then he is going to get terrifyingly free baskets going to the rim. Either that or he is gonna start getting hard fouled a lot.

And then his teammates will have more of an open lane and less concern about a big coming over to block their shot at the rim because they have to respect Giannis’ shot.

[emunney]

Teams CAN just lay back and let him shoot 3s. The smart ones do. Many defenders wait for him at or just above the FT line -- there is no illegal defense issue.

He forces the issue, he gets early offense, he gets catches closer to the basket... these are all things that already happen. Nothing should change is the point. We just do slightly better when he does shoot. The actual practically speaking part is that most teams and most players would change, stupidly.

[Pachinko_]

Yeah, obviously he does whatever he wants off the dribble or in the post most of the time, but that's not really the question, is it? The question is what do you do if him shooting 38% holds up, and the answer is: nothing differently. You still pack the paint, you still do whatever you can to keep him away from the rim, because, and I assume all good defensive coaches know this as a first principle in defending the Bucks, Giannis attacking the rim is death. Here's an illustration of why this is how teams should handle his improved 3pt shooting this way:

Read on Twitter

As Ben points out, getting more aggressive in taking away his wide open 3 point looks only makes the rest of his game, which is already worse for you, even more worser for you! You just lay back and hope he misses that ****.

And that tweet is not even the full story, what about the And1's? There are no And1s if you're sitting at the 3pt line jacking 3s.
Or the drive and kick for wide open 3s from dudes like Brogdon/Snell/Mirotic/Khris/Lopez. Those are 60% shots for these guys.
Or the fact that the opposing D gets loaded with fouls when Giannis drives.

Giannis will always be better off driving, and the other team will always be better off letting him shoot. Unless he becomes something ridiculous like a 50% 3pt shooter.

[humanrefutation]

Teams CAN just lay back and let him shoot 3s. The smart ones do. Many defenders wait for him at or just above the FT line -- there is no illegal defense issue.

He forces the issue, he gets early offense, he gets catches closer to the basket... these are all things that already happen. Nothing should change is the point. We just do slightly better when he does shoot. The actual practically speaking part is that most teams and most players would change, stupidly.

Well, I wasn't necessarily saying that he would shoot 38% from three no matter how wide open, but you already acknowledged that shooting better in that scenario would change your perspective, and I did not clearly make that distinction so let's set that aside. FWIW, Khris Middleton, who shoots 38%% from three generally, shoots 33% on wide open threes. Yet, the vast majority of defenders try to close out on him because they perceive him to be a good three point shooter. I think it's harder to really get defenders to consistently factor in those kinds of specific details for whatever reason.

The problem with the "let him shoot threes" hypothesis is that you're assuming Giannis would just settle for threes every single time in that scenario. We know he won't. That isn't his game.

Right now, defenders that try to wait for him just at or above the FT line still get scored on when he chooses to drive into the paint due to his physical gifts. Even good defensive teams struggle when they try to give him the three point shot. Giannis spent months rarely taking even wide open threes, and drove into those contested paints anyway despite the risks. Sometimes it would lead to bad turnovers. Many other times, he'd get to the basket and either score or find a wide open shooter.

Practically, teams would have to recede into an illegal defensive position to truthfully protect against him at the paint. And they would have only three seconds to maintain that position before having to reposition more closely to him - making him a better threat to take more efficient shots by driving on them.

By shooting 38% from three, he raises the floor AND the ceiling for his offensive production on any particular play by affording him the ability to credibly make a three. Something he couldn't do until the last month or so, when he was already a very dominant offensive player. And as you acknowledged, the practical reality is that more teams will close out on him with that shot, making him even more dangerous when he takes them to the basket.

[CharityStripe34]

If he settles into 35-36% consistently that's all he really needs and he'll probably win 3-4 MVP's. Literally.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind if he started working on the mid-range 15-20 footer from either elbow a la Kobe. Or maybe the Dirk one-legged fade. With his height, length and high release point it'll be unguardable. I'm sure he probably does. I always said from the beginning of the season it's mental/confidence with Yianni. Once he feels confident in his shot it'll start falling at a consistent rate.

[blazza18]

Has anyone noticed any actual real subtleties to his jumper? Outside if being more confident of course.

[aboveAverage]

Has anyone noticed any actual real subtleties to his jumper? Outside if being more confident of course.

The shot motion in general seems to be smoother. He's hitching less from what I can tell. And he's also not missing short anymore. He's really trying to get arc and strength into the shot.

I've also noticed that he's most comfortable when he does a two dribble gather. He even does this when he's wide open. It helps him set his form. He'll take two dribbles back and step into the shot. This is normally fine, because the defense give him so much space that it doesn't matter if he catches and shoots immediately or takes his two dribble gather first. But, it would also be nice if he could work in the catch and shoot three.

But baby steps for Giannis. He should master one type of shot before moving on to other kinds.

[jute2003]

Yeah, obviously he does whatever he wants off the dribble or in the post most of the time, but that's not really the question, is it? The question is what do you do if him shooting 38% holds up, and the answer is: nothing differently. You still pack the paint, you still do whatever you can to keep him away from the rim, because, and I assume all good defensive coaches know this as a first principle in defending the Bucks, Giannis attacking the rim is death. Here's an illustration of why this is how teams should handle his improved 3pt shooting this way:

Read on Twitter

As Ben points out, getting more aggressive in taking away his wide open 3 point looks only makes the rest of his game, which is already worse for you, even more worser for you! You just lay back and hope he misses that ****.

And that tweet is not even the full story, what about the And1's? There are no And1s if you're sitting at the 3pt line jacking 3s.
Or the drive and kick for wide open 3s from dudes like Brogdon/Snell/Mirotic/Khris/Lopez. Those are 60% shots for these guys.
Or the fact that the opposing D gets loaded with fouls when Giannis drives.

Giannis will always be better off driving, and the other team will always be better off letting him shoot. Unless he becomes something ridiculous like a 50% 3pt shooter.

Conversely, there are no offensive fouls or travelling if he just takes the three.

[crkone]

Yeah, obviously he does whatever he wants off the dribble or in the post most of the time, but that's not really the question, is it? The question is what do you do if him shooting 38% holds up, and the answer is: nothing differently. You still pack the paint, you still do whatever you can to keep him away from the rim, because, and I assume all good defensive coaches know this as a first principle in defending the Bucks, Giannis attacking the rim is death. Here's an illustration of why this is how teams should handle his improved 3pt shooting this way:

Read on Twitter

As Ben points out, getting more aggressive in taking away his wide open 3 point looks only makes the rest of his game, which is already worse for you, even more worser for you! You just lay back and hope he misses that ****.

And that tweet is not even the full story, what about the And1's? There are no And1s if you're sitting at the 3pt line jacking 3s.
Or the drive and kick for wide open 3s from dudes like Brogdon/Snell/Mirotic/Khris/Lopez. Those are 60% shots for these guys.
Or the fact that the opposing D gets loaded with fouls when Giannis drives.

Giannis will always be better off driving, and the other team will always be better off letting him shoot. Unless he becomes something ridiculous like a 50% 3pt shooter.

Conversely, there are no offensive fouls or travelling if he just takes the three.

And he rests his body from getting mauled under the hoop.

[MissKhriddleton]

How many of his threes have been taken at the end of the shot clock and how many have actually been taken in the flow of the offense? I feel like that matters for something.

[wallus]

I still think he is having knee problems and would like to shut him down for the next game at least. Unleash Mirotic and the Deej.

[CharityStripe34]

Has anyone noticed any actual real subtleties to his jumper? Outside if being more confident of course.

His shot motion looks more fluid than it did at the start of the season. A result of him thinking less and just letting it rip. His right elbow looks more tucked in and he's getting better arc and spin on his shot.

One thing I notice on his FT shooting that I don't like is how he stops his shooting motion midway to his chest and has that long pause, then releases. Most shooters do it all in one motion. It's why I think he something short-arms and misses off front iron, because that half-motion release hampers his arc as he tends to snap the wrist too much.

What's encouraging for him (and the team) is that he's also quietly raising his FT%. I think he started the season around 66-67% and now he's at 71%.

[soxperry]

Here's the problem with Giannis's 3 point approach right now, IMO..

Because he tends to dribble first and then pick up dribble and shoot, there is no threat of a drive and to me that seems like a waste. Now, if he can manufacture a nice little subtle fakeout without picking up his dribble, that would be deadly.

[Shaffty]

Here's the problem with Giannis's 3 point approach right now, IMO..

Because he tends to dribble first and then pick up dribble and shoot, there is no threat of a drive and to me that seems like a waste. Now, if he can manufacture a nice little subtle fakeout without picking up his dribble, that would be deadly.

baby steps

[Shaffty]

Teams CAN just lay back and let him shoot 3s. The smart ones do. Many defenders wait for him at or just above the FT line -- there is no illegal defense issue.

He forces the issue, he gets early offense, he gets catches closer to the basket... these are all things that already happen. Nothing should change is the point. We just do slightly better when he does shoot. The actual practically speaking part is that most teams and most players would change, stupidly.

if a guy hits 2 threes in a game vs you no matter what your gunna contest his next one

[Pachinko_]

I think it's probably time for Giannis to stop pushing his body so hard in the offseason, that body is already freaky enough.
Go into maintenance mode and work mostly on other things, strategy, shooting technique, video study etc.
Swimming is also great for maintaining strength and conditioning with no pressure on the knees.

In Suki I trust though, whatever she says.

[emunney]

Here's the problem with Giannis's 3 point approach right now, IMO..

Because he tends to dribble first and then pick up dribble and shoot, there is no threat of a drive and to me that seems like a waste. Now, if he can manufacture a nice little subtle fakeout without picking up his dribble, that would be deadly.

baby steps

All he needs to do is work that look at the floor thing into a hesi.

[bucksfansince88]

I think it's probably time for Giannis to stop pushing his body so hard in the offseason, that body is already freaky enough.
Go into maintenance mode and work mostly on other things, strategy, shooting technique, video study etc.
Swimming is also great for maintaining strength and conditioning with no pressure on the knees.

In Suki I trust though, whatever she says.

That Tim Duncan regimen