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Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread

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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1361 » by DingleJerry » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:23 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:I know, but just in general you chalk up as an L. If you get it, great, but for looking at records and schedules like we are you plan on it as an L. In spite of the beatdown we just took I doubt UW is more than 5 pt dog at home to them, probably guess 3.5 if I had to


3.5 isn't far off but as it stands, it likely opens as a pk or -1 either way.

Sometimes there is a slight tweak to what we can easily find on the predictive models and that edge may go to MSU, but you continue to guess on the spreads when they are readily available.

Of course the ratings can change by the time that game comes up.


I mean we're talking on a message board. I don't see why guessing the spreads is a big deal, i was merely agreeing with your point that it's not an unwinnable game since they'll only be a small dog to them. So I said what I thought it would be rather than looking it all up and spending the time. That's the only point I was making and I don't see why that's a problem. And hey, i was right yesterday, haha.

Essentially the whole way of gambling is seeing the spread and putting up against what you think it should be and then betting appropriately. In yesterdays case I was right that it should've been less as Nebraska hung with them quite late, UW almost backdoored it. In MSU case, I think it'll be set low due to the data and home court and I'd guess MSU covers it.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1362 » by buckboy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:26 pm

They're all winnable. And they're pretty much all losable. Tough to say. This team wins road games it's not supposed to and has for 20 years.

Definitely agree on Michigan. How many times have they won at Crisler in the last 20 years? 6? 8? I'll look but I know it's plenty.

Edit: 7-8 @ MIchigan since Bo took over.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1363 » by Kerb Hohl » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:27 pm

DingleJerry wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:I know, but just in general you chalk up as an L. If you get it, great, but for looking at records and schedules like we are you plan on it as an L. In spite of the beatdown we just took I doubt UW is more than 5 pt dog at home to them, probably guess 3.5 if I had to


3.5 isn't far off but as it stands, it likely opens as a pk or -1 either way.

Sometimes there is a slight tweak to what we can easily find on the predictive models and that edge may go to MSU, but you continue to guess on the spreads when they are readily available.

Of course the ratings can change by the time that game comes up.


I mean we're talking on a message board. I don't see why guessing the spreads is a big deal, i was merely agreeing with your point that it's not an unwinnable game since they'll only be a small dog to them. So I said what I thought it would be rather than looking it all up and spending the time. That's the only point I was making and I don't see why that's a problem. And hey, i was right yesterday, haha.


Yeah, apologies if that was too much. I've been arguing for years on here that the reason they are better than everyone thinks are these ratings...so I'll overuse them a bit.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1364 » by buckboy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:31 pm

The next week matters, but I would guess Wisconsin is favored against MSU.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1365 » by Diggr14 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:38 pm

Wisconsin is 7-0 when making 10+ 3s. 5-7 when they dont. Im good at math today.

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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1366 » by Kerb Hohl » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:51 pm

Read on Twitter


A bit misleading with guys like Self not getting to be on there and Beilein obviously getting elite teams after he changed up his strategy...but not bad.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1367 » by Bernman » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:49 pm

Tough several game stretch for Bucky. It's high-risk high-reward. Could make their nut as far as the tourney is concerned or go back onto the bubble. That shot by Davison against Maryland got them off it for the time being. Fine margins
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1368 » by buckboy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:36 pm

They're nowhere near the bubble. Loss to Maryland wouldn't have changed that. Much better with the win of course.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1369 » by Kerb Hohl » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:59 pm

Well, they currently are nowhere near the bubble...but because of the unwritten rules of how many raw losses you can have, if they lose 4 of these next 5, they will be on the bubble in their own sense. Their NET ranking is almost guaranteed to be good enough and they'll have plenty of big wins to celebrate...but their bubble will be that they'd have to finish 5-2 or 6-1 to feel good about getting in.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1370 » by buckboy » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:56 pm

Agree. Just arguing the notion that a loss to Maryland would've put them on it. Which it wouldn't have. It just would've given one less game of breathing space.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1371 » by Mags FTW » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:01 pm

They are a 6 in the new Bracketology
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1372 » by KidA24 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:03 pm

Re: Potter:

He looks like a guy who hasn't played competitively in two years. The hustle and offensive individuality is there, but he's watching them reacting to a lot of things (like PnR coverage) instead of just reacting.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1373 » by HaroldinGMinor » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:49 am

So that Ohio St win ain't looking so great anymore. Man what a tailspin.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1374 » by worthlessBucks » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:02 am

Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St...plenty of bad teams to go around for the Badgers to beat!
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1375 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:46 pm

Pretty much everyone outside of the top 3-5 nationally is "not great" in college hoops these days but someone (looks like it's Ohio State and Michigan) is going to suffer from the "we're all on the fringe of being top 20 teams but lose a lot of close games" in conference. Granted, as noted a few pages ago, maybe they're just adjusting to Howard's system, but Michigan's defense has been so awful, they may really be dropping.

It's going to be interesting if Purdue or Minnesota or OSU or even Wisconsin finish like 17-15 what the committee does...because those teams are "good enough" per NET and I think with the parity/worsening play that there may not be many better teams sitting at 20-12 against lesser conferences to put in with any sort of resume.

They usually don't really let anyone in that is worse than 18-14 (roughly) but this might be the year they put a team that is barely over .500 in.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1376 » by DingleJerry » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:38 pm

worthlessBucks wrote:Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St...plenty of bad teams to go around for the Badgers to beat!


I assume all B1G teams are on the verge of firing their coaches besides MSU and Rutgers.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1377 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:37 pm

DingleJerry wrote:
worthlessBucks wrote:Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St...plenty of bad teams to go around for the Badgers to beat!


I assume all B1G teams are on the verge of firing their coaches besides MSU and Rutgers.


This is extremely true.

-Michigan and OSU are already having second thoughts on their new(ish) coaches due to recent downturns.
-Archie has been up-and-down.
-I am on the shortest end of the fire Gard spectrum at basically accepting it may happen for about 5 days, most people have wanted it for years.
-Pitino was all but gone a month ago, now the future is suddenly bright again after Carr saved them last night
-Painter has created too high of expectations now and is going to get ripped during a down cycle.
-Illinois' coach was an idiot that got straightened out by a nerd assistant from the Celtics and may have saved his tenure
-Turgeon always underachieves
-Fran is Fran and has been almost gone several times
-TBD on Hoiberg, obviously he's just throwing **** out there this year but I'm not sure he's going to conjure up the defense to survive in this conference
-Northwestern sucks but Collins gave them with their only tournament bid and I doubt it can get much better
-Chambers at PSU might be pretty safe if he gets a tournament bid finally
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1378 » by DingleJerry » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:43 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:
worthlessBucks wrote:Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St...plenty of bad teams to go around for the Badgers to beat!


I assume all B1G teams are on the verge of firing their coaches besides MSU and Rutgers.


This is extremely true.

-Michigan and OSU are already having second thoughts on their new(ish) coaches due to recent downturns.
-Archie has been up-and-down.
-I am on the shortest end of the fire Gard spectrum at basically accepting it may happen for about 5 days, most people have wanted it for years.
-Pitino was all but gone a month ago, now the future is suddenly bright again after Carr saved them last night
-Painter has created too high of expectations now and is going to get ripped during a down cycle.
-Illinois' coach was an idiot that got straightened out by a nerd assistant from the Celtics and may have saved his tenure
-Turgeon always underachieves
-Fran is Fran and has been almost gone several times
-TBD on Hoiberg, obviously he's just throwing **** out there this year but I'm not sure he's going to conjure up the defense to survive in this conference
-Northwestern sucks but Collins gave them with their only tournament bid and I doubt it can get much better
-Chambers at PSU might be pretty safe if he gets a tournament bid finally


I was mostly being sarcastic about in regards to how the big contingency wants Gard gone. But if you actually pay attention to the landscape of CBB dips and losses happen and teams don't fire coaches for losing a few games as well as pointing out how difficult and rare it is to win like Bo did, thus having that kind of standard on Gard is unrealistic.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1379 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:47 pm

DingleJerry wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:
I assume all B1G teams are on the verge of firing their coaches besides MSU and Rutgers.


This is extremely true.

-Michigan and OSU are already having second thoughts on their new(ish) coaches due to recent downturns.
-Archie has been up-and-down.
-I am on the shortest end of the fire Gard spectrum at basically accepting it may happen for about 5 days, most people have wanted it for years.
-Pitino was all but gone a month ago, now the future is suddenly bright again after Carr saved them last night
-Painter has created too high of expectations now and is going to get ripped during a down cycle.
-Illinois' coach was an idiot that got straightened out by a nerd assistant from the Celtics and may have saved his tenure
-Turgeon always underachieves
-Fran is Fran and has been almost gone several times
-TBD on Hoiberg, obviously he's just throwing **** out there this year but I'm not sure he's going to conjure up the defense to survive in this conference
-Northwestern sucks but Collins gave them with their only tournament bid and I doubt it can get much better
-Chambers at PSU might be pretty safe if he gets a tournament bid finally


I was mostly being sarcastic about in regards to how the big contingency wants Gard gone. But if you actually pay attention to the landscape of CBB dips and losses happen and teams don't fire coaches for losing a few games as well as pointing out how difficult and rare it is to win like Bo did, thus having that kind of standard on Gard is unrealistic.


Yeah, I get that it was somewhat of a joke but it's probably going to happen in a lot of these cases. I think OSU is actually going to be fine but they have had an alarming lot of losses in the last 2 years in conference play. TBD on Howard because they are regressing hard without Livers but maybe Howard will dominate with his big-time recruiting and faster pace of play eventually.
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Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#1380 » by DingleJerry » Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:56 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
This is extremely true.

-Michigan and OSU are already having second thoughts on their new(ish) coaches due to recent downturns.
-Archie has been up-and-down.
-I am on the shortest end of the fire Gard spectrum at basically accepting it may happen for about 5 days, most people have wanted it for years.
-Pitino was all but gone a month ago, now the future is suddenly bright again after Carr saved them last night
-Painter has created too high of expectations now and is going to get ripped during a down cycle.
-Illinois' coach was an idiot that got straightened out by a nerd assistant from the Celtics and may have saved his tenure
-Turgeon always underachieves
-Fran is Fran and has been almost gone several times
-TBD on Hoiberg, obviously he's just throwing **** out there this year but I'm not sure he's going to conjure up the defense to survive in this conference
-Northwestern sucks but Collins gave them with their only tournament bid and I doubt it can get much better
-Chambers at PSU might be pretty safe if he gets a tournament bid finally


I was mostly being sarcastic about in regards to how the big contingency wants Gard gone. But if you actually pay attention to the landscape of CBB dips and losses happen and teams don't fire coaches for losing a few games as well as pointing out how difficult and rare it is to win like Bo did, thus having that kind of standard on Gard is unrealistic.


Yeah, I get that it was somewhat of a joke but it's probably going to happen in a lot of these cases. I think OSU is actually going to be fine but they have had an alarming lot of losses in the last 2 years in conference play. TBD on Howard because they are regressing hard without Livers but maybe Howard will dominate with his big-time recruiting and faster pace of play eventually.


You're obviously more in tune in this than me. But quickly looking at things off the top of my head I'd guess that no one gets fired this year. NW would be at the biggest risk, but as you said they just made the tourney under him and NW is realistic about their expectations. MN probably second biggest but if he survived all the scandals there I don't think they fire him for just being ok this year.

Funny on the guessing lines thing. A friend of mine texted me a few days ago with a joke about whether this Purdue game will break 100 total points. I said back that I'd guess they set it at 115 and I'd take the under on it. Check it today and I guessed it right. I'm guess a tough to watch slugfest
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