ImageImage

Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread

Moderators: paulpressey25, MickeyDavis

User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#321 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu Aug 1, 2019 6:11 pm

emunney wrote:If you're suggesting there's a negative correlation between pace and wins, you're the one who's going to have to show your work on that.


Well, there's a bit of a caveat here.

Duke, Kentucky (paying players or at the very least if you don't want to believe it, prestige advantage), UNC (prestige/maybe?), Kansas, etc. are in a whole different league. Those teams play somewhat fast to fast. Wisconsin would be stupid to try to join that group in talent acquisition because it would likely be a giant failure. I'm not even speaking to the people that want slightly better recruiting rankings...maybe that could happen but I'm saying they will not ever succeed in loading up on guys like Duke does.

For the other 50 or so major teams, yes, I would suggest that there's mostly a negative correlation to pace and winning. I'll see if I have any data on that but I mean, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Villanova are 4 of the most successful teams in the past decade and other than when Villanova was head-and-shoulders more talented than everyone (not with a bunch of top 10 recruits) they all played slow as hell.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#322 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu Aug 1, 2019 6:25 pm

To show how skewed fast tempo is to the lower conferences or elite 5 teams and the fact that winning at the probably correlates to playing slower...

I'll bold power 6 conference teams + Gonzaga

KenPom teams in the top 100 tempos to make the 2019 tournament: Duke, UNC, Belmont, PVAM, St. John's, ASU, Gonzaga, Kansas, LSU, Georgia State, Murray State, Seton Hall (they were ranked 100th)

KenPom teams in the bottom 100 to make the 2019 tournament: Virginia, Liberty, St. Mary's, KSU, Cincy, Villanova, Va Tech, Wisconsin, Oregon, Old Dominion, Michigan, NDSU, UCF, Baylor, UC-Irvine, Bradley, Vermont, Kentucky, Wofford, New Mexico State, Purdue, Maryland, Washington, Houston, Syracuse, Northeastern. Texas Tech also barely missed the bottom 100 but is probably just as ugly to watch given elite defense


So from the fast teams you have 4 NBA factories (counting Gonzaga), LSU, Morant, and a bunch of fodder

From the slow teams you have the national champ and a ton of successful/dangerous to win several NCAA teams. There are like 5+ bolded teams that are not major conference but are very good like Cincy/Houston/St. Mary's or upset teams like Irvine.

Also, a lot of the teams in the bottom 100 that missed the tournament are teams that are generally competitive (Texas, Butler, Notre Dame, etc.)

In summary, the teams that play fast are:
-Teams loaded with NBA talent (like 5 teams)
-Teams that are 10x more talented in a given year than the rest of their conference (Nevada, Utah State, Gonzaga, Murray State) all played somewhat fast
-The dregs of division 1
User avatar
emunney
RealGM
Posts: 47,282
And1: 17,111
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: where takes go to be pampered

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#323 » by emunney » Thu Aug 1, 2019 6:31 pm

I think you've hit on something there that differentiates the Badgers and the dogma of the Badger way (this also applies to Virginia for sure), because even when the Badgers were legitimately great, and that 2014-15 team was imo an all-time great college team, they were still extremely slow. It doesn't seem to me like there's a personnel set that you could give to Bo or Gard that would convince them that there's a superior alternative to what they're doing. And they could be right! They've had way more success there than their personnel would suggest they should have.

Everything I've seen says that pace has essentially no correlation with winning, but I imagine you could fudge that if you decide that all the fast good teams are invalid.
NY Daily News wrote:Eddy Curry claims he slept for only two hours Sunday night because he couldn't stop thinking about ghosts.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#324 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu Aug 1, 2019 6:36 pm

emunney wrote:I think you've hit on something there that differentiates the Badgers and the dogma of the Badger way (this also applies to Virginia for sure), because even when the Badgers were legitimately great, and that 2014-15 team was imo an all-time great college team, they were still extremely slow. It doesn't seem to me like there's a personnel set that you could give to Bo or Gard that would convince them that there's a superior alternative to what they're doing. And they could be right! They've had way more success there than their personnel would suggest they should have.

Everything I've seen says that pace has essentially no correlation with winning, but I imagine you could fudge that if you decide that all the fast good teams are invalid.


Well, yeah. If I had NBA players like Duke had last year or 5-8 guys that all have fringe or better NBA talent like UNC has most years I'd probably play faster.

Wisconsin's tempo was slower but their offense was more appealing to the casual fan in the national runner-up year because they moved the ball around very quickly. Not directly tempo-related but they played a fast-moving offense. This is why they had the most efficient offense in KenPom history. Maybe they'd have been fine running several fast breaks but I think that was the one alteration they could make the two years they had first round NBA talent.

You have to cut out the top 5-10 teams in this comparison in the NCAA with NBA talent because they are on such a different planet and should create more possessions because they have vastly superior talent.

Everyone else should be playing slower or they're going to underachieve like St. John's and ASU recently have for example. Better coached teams are going to eat them alive in the 5-10 blown possessions that those teams have.

Point being to the original argument, "modern convention" with NBA basketball players - play fast, shoot lots of 3s

"modern convention" with high-level NCAA players - play efficient (probably slow), shoot lots of 3s.

I'd argue that Bo wrote the book on modern NCAA convention.
User avatar
Brewhoopfan
Pro Prospect
Posts: 774
And1: 658
Joined: Nov 20, 2017
 

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#325 » by Brewhoopfan » Thu Aug 1, 2019 7:01 pm

Tempo has just as much to do with defense as offense. If your team gets back on defense and does a good job of taking away initial options - then the games tend to have fewer possessions. If it doesn't have fewer possessions, then I really like your chances.
mattg
Head Coach
Posts: 6,345
And1: 1,455
Joined: Feb 12, 2007

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#326 » by mattg » Thu Aug 1, 2019 9:16 pm

What I’m infinitely more curious about than pure number of possessions in a game is at what point on the shot clock does UW on average cross the timeline, and then at what point on the shot clock do they start actually trying to manipulate the defense (so not counting meaningless side to side ball swings that move the ball but aren’t aiming to manipulate the defense actually) and of course the corresponding offensive efficiency for each possession that begins at each time slot.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#327 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Aug 2, 2019 2:28 pm

mattg wrote:What I’m infinitely more curious about than pure number of possessions in a game is at what point on the shot clock does UW on average cross the timeline, and then at what point on the shot clock do they start actually trying to manipulate the defense (so not counting meaningless side to side ball swings that move the ball but aren’t aiming to manipulate the defense actually) and of course the corresponding offensive efficiency for each possession that begins at each time slot.


One thing they did last year was actually sprint it up the court to set the offense. Of course they stalled after that, but I think the idea was to not let the defense match up on Happ as much. Not sure they'll keep that up.

I get what you're going for here - that you think they stall too much. Sometimes that may be true but they generally are one of the more efficient offenses in the country so it's hard to completely complain with it. I think part of the problem last year outside of Happ being different and forcing them to play a post-up game was that other than Trice making all of those huge shots to finish games early in the year, their "end of the shot clock finisher" role was the worst it has ever been...so you may be right about offensive stall ball being very bad in that case.
User avatar
HaroldinGMinor
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,278
And1: 2,702
Joined: Jan 23, 2013
       

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#328 » by HaroldinGMinor » Fri Aug 2, 2019 3:51 pm

I think not having Happ is actually going to help their offense.
Read on Twitter
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#329 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Aug 2, 2019 4:05 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:I think not having Happ is actually going to help their offense.


We've obviously gone in on this idea like every 4-5 pages of the thread.

I hope/think so. They will obviously be playing to actual modern convention of a free-flowing offense that focuses more on the 3...the one concern is if a playmaker or two that we hope to step up does not, it could have some brutal stretches in it.
User avatar
HaroldinGMinor
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,278
And1: 2,702
Joined: Jan 23, 2013
       

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#330 » by HaroldinGMinor » Fri Aug 2, 2019 4:21 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
HaroldinGMinor wrote:I think not having Happ is actually going to help their offense.


We've obviously gone in on this idea like every 4-5 pages of the thread.

I hope/think so. They will obviously be playing to actual modern convention of a free-flowing offense that focuses more on the 3...the one concern is if a playmaker or two that we hope to step up does not, it could have some brutal stretches in it.


That plus he was a super high usage guy that couldn't make free throws. Removing him and Iverson will help spacing and free throw shooting by default. Be nice if they could find two guys that could penetrate. Maybe King can step up?




Read on Twitter
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#331 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Aug 2, 2019 4:27 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
HaroldinGMinor wrote:I think not having Happ is actually going to help their offense.


We've obviously gone in on this idea like every 4-5 pages of the thread.

I hope/think so. They will obviously be playing to actual modern convention of a free-flowing offense that focuses more on the 3...the one concern is if a playmaker or two that we hope to step up does not, it could have some brutal stretches in it.


That plus he was a super high usage guy that couldn't make free throws. Removing him and Iverson will help spacing and free throw shooting by default. Be nice if they could find two guys that could penetrate. Maybe King can step up?


Yeah, I think King will. He was really showing signs of confidence on his knee at the end of the year.

The concern about FT shooting is how much does shooting 75% as a team matter if you have one of the lowest rates in the country of getting there? Again, I am a bit more optimistic on that but that is in the range of outcomes.
User avatar
HaroldinGMinor
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,278
And1: 2,702
Joined: Jan 23, 2013
       

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#332 » by HaroldinGMinor » Fri Aug 2, 2019 4:44 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:The concern about FT shooting is how much does shooting 75% as a team matter if you have one of the lowest rates in the country of getting there? Again, I am a bit more optimistic on that but that is in the range of outcomes.


I am very confident that rate will go up. Maybe not top 10 like it was in the old Bo days but certainly not bottom quartile like last year. Happ probably should have gone to the line 10 - 15 times a game but I think he avoided contact to avoid drawing fouls. He shot 5 free throws his last three games which is astounding given how much he operated in the paint.




Read on Twitter
User avatar
LittleRooster
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,878
And1: 1,499
Joined: Apr 02, 2010
     

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#333 » by LittleRooster » Fri Aug 9, 2019 2:40 am

Read on Twitter


Kerb slacking not posting this first


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
User avatar
HaroldinGMinor
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,278
And1: 2,702
Joined: Jan 23, 2013
       

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#334 » by HaroldinGMinor » Fri Aug 9, 2019 3:03 am

That's a really nice offer list for a PWO




Read on Twitter
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 27,108
And1: 1,433
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#335 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Aug 9, 2019 1:21 pm

That's a nice pickup, hopefully of Showalter caliber. He can always be lured away by another D1 school as next year goes by as he's got offers and interest.

I'd imagine it already may be the case or would be if bigger schools keep calling that they'd offer 4 for 5.
User avatar
tski1972
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,402
And1: 2,281
Joined: May 24, 2011
Location: Wow-saw, WI
Contact:
     

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#336 » by tski1972 » Fri Aug 9, 2019 2:06 pm

6'7".....one inch taller and he probably gets the scholarship.
http://twitter.com/MarkIsOld

Image

"Because of Giannis, the once lousy Bucks are back in the NBA conversation." - 60 Minutes
chonestown
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,189
And1: 4,474
Joined: Mar 13, 2010
Location: Stretch Cadillacs, fruit cocktails

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#337 » by chonestown » Fri Aug 9, 2019 2:37 pm

George Lucas-ass name Carter Gilmore.
“I went to Toronto, I went to Atlanta/I used to drink Pepsi, but now I like Fanta.”

-Hannibal Burress's impression of Canadian music figure Drake
User avatar
Mags FTW
RealGM
Posts: 30,299
And1: 4,209
Joined: Feb 16, 2006
Location: Flickin' It

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#338 » by Mags FTW » Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:19 am

chonestown wrote:George Lucas-ass name Carter Gilmore.

Lead character in a Gilmore Girls/Dawson's Creek crossover.
User avatar
trwi7
RealGM
Posts: 105,654
And1: 19,602
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
Location: Aussie bias
         

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#339 » by trwi7 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:37 am

With a name like that he probably lives in Bristlecone Pines, Four Winds or Mary Hill Park.
stellation wrote:What's the difference between Gery Woelful and this glass of mineral water? The mineral water actually has a source."


I Hate Manure wrote:We look to be awful next season without Beasley.
User avatar
skones
RealGM
Posts: 26,063
And1: 5,680
Joined: Jul 20, 2004
Location: Milwaukee
     

Re: Wisconsin Badgers 2019-20 Season Thread 

Post#340 » by skones » Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:13 am

trwi7 wrote:With a name like that he probably lives in Bristlecone Pines, Four Winds or Mary Hill Park.


lake country bois

Return to Milwaukee Bucks