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Giannis Thread - Baby Freak on the Way

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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#341 » by step3profit » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:30 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:The Warriors angle is hilarious. Never-mind that they just inked Klay, Russell, and Draymond to monster deals, but Steph's super-max contract runs up until the 2022 offseason. Just typical ESPN rumor garbage with absolutely no realistic scenarios/substance.


I'd call it a Completely Random Guess With The Greatest Chance Of Being Correct Of All The Random Guesses About Where Giannis Will Sign If He Doesn't Sign With The Bucks.

It just rolls off the tongue.

It's not some brave prediction that someone who doesn't sign with their current team would favor going to the Warriors.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#342 » by EastSideBucksFan » Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:32 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
EastSideBucksFan wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Yes, I'm very serious about not losing the best player in the league for nothing.



I'd still keep him and roll the dice on a championship run and changing his mind. If he walks, he walks.

It's not likely to find any value comparable to what Giannis is


If it's nothing vs a package comparable to what New Orleans got for Davis (Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and three first-round picks – including the No. 4 overall), I'd take the package. I think you're crazy if you wouldn't.


That's AD asking for a trade.

Different scenario than Giannis just not signing an extension

If Giannis publicly demands a trade, then you trade him. Not signing extension doesn't mean trade for me.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#343 » by Wooderson » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:03 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
EastSideBucksFan wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Yes, I'm very serious about not losing the best player in the league for nothing.



I'd still keep him and roll the dice on a championship run and changing his mind. If he walks, he walks.

It's not likely to find any value comparable to what Giannis is


If it's nothing vs a package comparable to what New Orleans got for Davis (Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and three first-round picks – including the No. 4 overall), I'd take the package. I think you're crazy if you wouldn't.


Which team has those assets that Giannis would actually commit to long term? That was a pretty unique situation.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#344 » by emunney » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:04 pm

step3profit wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:The Warriors angle is hilarious. Never-mind that they just inked Klay, Russell, and Draymond to monster deals, but Steph's super-max contract runs up until the 2022 offseason. Just typical ESPN rumor garbage with absolutely no realistic scenarios/substance.


I'd call it a Completely Random Guess With The Greatest Chance Of Being Correct Of All The Random Guesses About Where Giannis Will Sign If He Doesn't Sign With The Bucks.

It just rolls off the tongue.

It's not some brave prediction that someone who doesn't sign with their current team would favor going to the Warriors.


Yeah, at a certain point, it's just like, "Who can you conceive of pulling it off?" You look at the teams who have a recent history of successful heists.

I think Toronto is absolutely the biggest threat, personally. But if the question is where will Giannis be playing in 2022, I think it's:

1. Milwaukee
<huge gap, 80% chance he stays, imo>
2. Toronto
3. Orlando
4. Denver -- these would be most likely by trade if he balks at the extension next summer
<gap>
5. Golden State
6. Dallas
7. Miami -- these would be trades for a lesser package once he hits FA, by this point I think it's really unlikely, and Toronto would be in play in that scenario as well
<gap>
The field; I could rank order them but it feels like a bigger waste of time.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#345 » by emunney » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:20 pm

I also think still there's a chance that Giannis approaches the Bucks and says, give me 3 more years with a 3rd year PO at max level before the season starts. That'd be 106m guaranteed including the PO of ~38m on the last year, and he could still hit UFA in summer '23 as a 28 year old in his absolute prime, or decline the option and sign his super max in '22. It's a matter of how much he wants to hear and think about FA this year, and how much he likes what we've got going on here.

He could short-circuit all this speculation if it's a high enough priority for him going into a year where we're almost universally considered a top 3 team and are the favorite of many. He's eligible to sign an extension starting *tomorrow*.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#346 » by ReasonablySober » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:27 pm

emunney wrote:I also think still there's a chance that Giannis approaches the Bucks and says, give me 3 more years with a 3rd year PO at max level before the season starts. That'd be 106m guaranteed including the PO of ~38m on the last year, and he could still hit UFA in summer '23 as a 28 year old in his absolute prime, or decline the option and sign his super max in '22. It's a matter of how much he wants to hear and think about FA this year, and how much he likes what we've got going on here.

He could short-circuit all this speculation if it's a high enough priority for him going into a year where we're almost universally considered a top 3 team and are the favorite of many. He's eligible to sign an extension starting *tomorrow*.


Wait, for real?
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#347 » by emunney » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:31 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
emunney wrote:I also think still there's a chance that Giannis approaches the Bucks and says, give me 3 more years with a 3rd year PO at max level before the season starts. That'd be 106m guaranteed including the PO of ~38m on the last year, and he could still hit UFA in summer '23 as a 28 year old in his absolute prime, or decline the option and sign his super max in '22. It's a matter of how much he wants to hear and think about FA this year, and how much he likes what we've got going on here.

He could short-circuit all this speculation if it's a high enough priority for him going into a year where we're almost universally considered a top 3 team and are the favorite of many. He's eligible to sign an extension starting *tomorrow*.


Wait, for real?


Yep, signed his current extension 9/20/16.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#348 » by ReasonablySober » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:38 pm

emunney wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
emunney wrote:I also think still there's a chance that Giannis approaches the Bucks and says, give me 3 more years with a 3rd year PO at max level before the season starts. That'd be 106m guaranteed including the PO of ~38m on the last year, and he could still hit UFA in summer '23 as a 28 year old in his absolute prime, or decline the option and sign his super max in '22. It's a matter of how much he wants to hear and think about FA this year, and how much he likes what we've got going on here.

He could short-circuit all this speculation if it's a high enough priority for him going into a year where we're almost universally considered a top 3 team and are the favorite of many. He's eligible to sign an extension starting *tomorrow*.


Wait, for real?


Yep, signed his current extension 9/20/16.


But not at the Supermax level, right?
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#349 » by MickeyDavis » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:40 pm

Can't supermax him until next summer
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#350 » by emunney » Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:48 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
emunney wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Wait, for real?


Yep, signed his current extension 9/20/16.


But not at the Supermax level, right?


Yep, right. It'd be starting at 120% of the last year of his current deal.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#351 » by MiltownHawkeye » Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:52 pm

emunney wrote:
step3profit wrote:
Ron Swanson wrote:The Warriors angle is hilarious. Never-mind that they just inked Klay, Russell, and Draymond to monster deals, but Steph's super-max contract runs up until the 2022 offseason. Just typical ESPN rumor garbage with absolutely no realistic scenarios/substance.


I'd call it a Completely Random Guess With The Greatest Chance Of Being Correct Of All The Random Guesses About Where Giannis Will Sign If He Doesn't Sign With The Bucks.

It just rolls off the tongue.

It's not some brave prediction that someone who doesn't sign with their current team would favor going to the Warriors.


Yeah, at a certain point, it's just like, "Who can you conceive of pulling it off?" You look at the teams who have a recent history of successful heists.

I think Toronto is absolutely the biggest threat, personally. But if the question is where will Giannis be playing in 2022, I think it's:

1. Milwaukee
<huge gap, 80% chance he stays, imo>
2. Toronto
3. Orlando
4. Denver -- these would be most likely by trade if he balks at the extension next summer
<gap>
5. Golden State
6. Dallas
7. Miami -- these would be trades for a lesser package once he hits FA, by this point I think it's really unlikely, and Toronto would be in play in that scenario as well
<gap>
The field; I could rank order them but it feels like a bigger waste of time.

Why do you think that the Raptors have the second biggest chance? It feels like a narrative Raptors fans successfully willed into existence.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#352 » by emunney » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:04 pm

MiltownHawkeye wrote:
emunney wrote:
step3profit wrote:
I'd call it a Completely Random Guess With The Greatest Chance Of Being Correct Of All The Random Guesses About Where Giannis Will Sign If He Doesn't Sign With The Bucks.

It just rolls off the tongue.

It's not some brave prediction that someone who doesn't sign with their current team would favor going to the Warriors.


Yeah, at a certain point, it's just like, "Who can you conceive of pulling it off?" You look at the teams who have a recent history of successful heists.

I think Toronto is absolutely the biggest threat, personally. But if the question is where will Giannis be playing in 2022, I think it's:

1. Milwaukee
<huge gap, 80% chance he stays, imo>
2. Toronto
3. Orlando
4. Denver -- these would be most likely by trade if he balks at the extension next summer
<gap>
5. Golden State
6. Dallas
7. Miami -- these would be trades for a lesser package once he hits FA, by this point I think it's really unlikely, and Toronto would be in play in that scenario as well
<gap>
The field; I could rank order them but it feels like a bigger waste of time.

Why do you think that the Raptors have the second biggest chance? It feels like a narrative Raptors fans successfully willed into existence.


I think Toronto fans overplay the personal relationship with Ujiri and underplay the real reason he could be a draw -- he builds winners, he's as good a talent evaluator as there is, and he's extremely smart and aggressive. That means he's likely to quickly rebuild their talent and asset base to the extent where he can offer his past performance as a proof-of-concept to Giannis while having something significant to offer the Bucks as compensation. And there's no question he'll try to make it happen.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#353 » by Matches Malone » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:17 pm

Everywhere I have read says he is eligible for the supermax extension in the summer of 2020. Not sure where the 9/20 talk is coming from?
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#354 » by Wooderson » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:54 pm

Matches Malone wrote:Everywhere I have read says he is eligible for the supermax extension in the summer of 2020. Not sure where the 9/20 talk is coming from?


Look at Emunney's posts above yours. He's elible for a deal at 120% raise, not the supermax.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#355 » by TD75 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:49 pm

emunney wrote:I also think still there's a chance that Giannis approaches the Bucks and says, give me 3 more years with a 3rd year PO at max level before the season starts. That'd be 106m guaranteed including the PO of ~38m on the last year, and he could still hit UFA in summer '23 as a 28 year old in his absolute prime, or decline the option and sign his super max in '22. It's a matter of how much he wants to hear and think about FA this year, and how much he likes what we've got going on here.

He could short-circuit all this speculation if it's a high enough priority for him going into a year where we're almost universally considered a top 3 team and are the favorite of many. He's eligible to sign an extension starting *tomorrow*.


That is actually very interesting as a potential scenario.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#356 » by blazza18 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:32 pm

Do we think Horst knows Giannis can sign an extension tomorrow?
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#357 » by Ron Swanson » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:46 pm

Yeah, let's not make this a thing. He has zero reason to sign an early extension before the super-max. What's the most that would even pay him? Like, $30 mil per year?
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#358 » by Shaffty » Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:28 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
DanoMac wrote:I caught a "1 on 1" on ESPN before with Rachel Nichols and Steph Curry. Steph gives Rachel a tour of the new arena and new practice facility.

Felt like a recruiting pitch that ESPN was just broadcasting. Where were they for our new arena? Or practice facility?


We're probably not doing all the state of the art biometric stuff that makes the story interesting.



yes they did
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#359 » by soxperry » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:59 am

ReasonablySober wrote:
EastSideBucksFan wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Yes, I'm very serious about not losing the best player in the league for nothing.



I'd still keep him and roll the dice on a championship run and changing his mind. If he walks, he walks.

It's not likely to find any value comparable to what Giannis is


If it's nothing vs a package comparable to what New Orleans got for Davis (Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and three first-round picks – including the No. 4 overall), I'd take the package. I think you're crazy if you wouldn't.


Even considering the fact that New Orleans won the lottery and got to draft Zion which is external to the package they got, what would you put their percentage chance of winning a title (or even getting to the NBA finals) over the next 7 years?

I would think that one year of Giannis easily dwarfs that percentage, and i've already commented on my displeasure of following a team with a phantom chance every season.
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Re: Giannis Thread 

Post#360 » by paulpressey25 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:08 am

Ron Swanson wrote:Yeah, let's not make this a thing. He has zero reason to sign an early extension before the super-max. What's the most that would even pay him? Like, $30 mil per year?


Yep. He’s only nine months from the supermax, and he’s already financially secure. No need to do anything now.

But the 3 year supermax with player option after year two does feel to me like what he’ll do next summer.
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