RealGM

This thread won’t get a lot of play, but decent to check in on as the season progresses. The first round pick may get more or less valuable in the next 90 days, and this will have impact should the team decide to use it in a mid-season trade at the deadline.

In the Brogdon trade the Bucks got:

2020 first round draft pick from Indiana
Indiana's 1st round pick to Milwaukee protected for selections 1-14 in 2020, 1-14 in 2021, 1-14 in 2022, 1-14 in 2023, 1-14 in 2024 and 1-14 in 2025 and unprotected in 2026 [Indiana-Milwaukee, 7/6/2019]

2021 second round draft pick from Indiana
One year after Indiana conveys a 2nd round pick to Brooklyn, Indiana will convey its 2nd round pick to Milwaukee (this pick will therefore convey in 2021, 2022, 2023 or 2024) [Indiana-Milwaukee, 7/6/2019]

2025 second round draft pick from Indiana
Indiana's 2025 2nd round pick to Milwaukee [Indiana-Milwaukee, 7/6/2019]

Pacers now 3-4 and in statistical tie for the 8th seed.

Pick would be 15-17 depending on tie breakers.

Odds this pick is actually made by Milwaukee?

Bucksfan28 wrote:Odds this pick is actually made by Milwaukee?

Pretty high imo. Think it's unlikely we don't make a 1st round pick two years in a row. We need cost controlled talent.

Bucksfan28 wrote:Odds this pick is actually made by Milwaukee?

You’d think the Pacers would be locks to make the playoffs in the East, given how weak it is. But then again they blew a huge lead to Charlotte tonight. So does it convey this year? Maybe, maybe not.

As far as non-lottery picks go, the Pacers pick this year is probably about as good as it gets. All of the Western playoff teams will likely have a better record than Indiana, so we should be pretty close to maximizing the potential value of that pick.

paulpressey25 wrote:

Bucksfan28 wrote:Odds this pick is actually made by Milwaukee?

You’d think the Pacers would be locks to make the playoffs in the East, given how weak it is. But then again they blew a huge lead to Charlotte tonight. So does it convey this year? Maybe, maybe not.

They were playing with a bunch of guys out. I'd be very surprised if they don't make the playoffs.

soxperry wrote:As far as non-lottery picks go, the Pacers pick this year is probably about as good as it gets. All of the Western playoff teams will likely have a better record than Indiana, so we should be pretty close to maximizing the potential value of that pick.

I'll guess the 19th pick.

emunney wrote:

Bucksfan28 wrote:Odds this pick is actually made by Milwaukee?

Pretty high imo. Think it's unlikely we don't make a 1st round pick two years in a row. We need cost controlled talent.

I doubt it. We can fill out our roster with vets (Matthews, Korver) and young talent (Bender) on minimum contracts. If this pick has any value we'll trade it.

If we win the title/make the Finals and Giannis commits to signing the Supermax, I think we make the pick to get a young talent that we can wait to develop.

If there is any chance Giannis might leave, we will include it in whatever deal needs to be made to get a vet for another shot at a title.

We already have a handful of young guys who can't find playing time. Unless we're targeting somebody in the draft who looks like they would be in the rotation from day 1, I think it's likely we trade the pick at the deadline.

Really want to keep the pick. If Giannis signs the supermax guys on rookie contracts become even more valuable.

We have plenty of young wings but this draft is supposed to be heavy on PG's and our two guys there are turning 30 and 34 respectively. If there's an obvious talent upgrade out there that makes sense then the pick is obviously expendable, but I'm not just flipping it for some mediocre starter or rotation level dude like Joe Harris or Fred Van Vleet.

TroyD92 wrote:Really want to keep the pick. If Giannis signs the supermax guys on rookie contracts become even more valuable.

First, we need to convince Giannis to sign the contract. That doesn't officially happen until after the season and after the draft.

What's going to convince him more? A known quantity player who can make this team better right now, or another guy who will probably ride the bench for a season. I'm not saying it's impossible to get a ready to go player in the draft, but it feels unlikely.

I don't think that 1st rounder alone will get the player we need, but it's a good start.

LuessiT wrote:

emunney wrote:

Bucksfan28 wrote:Odds this pick is actually made by Milwaukee?

Pretty high imo. Think it's unlikely we don't make a 1st round pick two years in a row. We need cost controlled talent.

I doubt it. We can fill out our roster with vets (Matthews, Korver) and young talent (Bender) on minimum contracts. If this pick has any value we'll trade it.

There are scenarios I'd be fine trading the pick in but the default should be keeping it. Think its really important that we try to develop replacements for Bledsoe and Lopez in house before they age out.

Scenarios I'd be fine with:

- we get another all-star
- we get a young player who I love

If we're serious about making this a long run with Giannis, we can't trade this pick for a rental of a quality bench guy. That's not nearly enough. If that's in the plans then not keeping Brogdon goes from borderline rational to utterly absurd.

A young point guard? A younger player who I love? Someone who isn't a rental or just a quality bench guy? I wonder where we could have found a guy who fits that profile for that first round pick?

I was thinking of someone either younger than Brogdon who cleaves more neatly along our salary structure or someone better than Brogdon. Either one is a tall order which is why I think you fall back on relying on your personnel team to make a good pick.

I wish we kept Brogdon but let's look forward.

Two more guys I'll be keeping an eye on for this pick: Isaiah Joe and Joe Wieskamp.

Just a glance at their schedule, it's pretty cupcake heavy. I'd be interested to know if they have the easiest early season schedule.

emunney wrote:I was thinking of someone either younger than Brogdon who cleaves more neatly along our salary structure or someone better than Brogdon.

You're looking for a unicorn, then. There's a real chance that Brogdon is going to be an All-Star this year. You're not going to do better than someone of his stature at that salary, IMO. If you're looking for a quality player is younger, cheaper, more than a bench player, and more than a rental, they're going to cost more than a late teens-early 20s first round pick.

If you're willing to expand your criteria to consider more expensive additions, lesser players, or short-term fixes, you might be able to find someone.

Otherwise I agree that you've got to look into the draft, and the 5-10% likelihood you'll find someone as good as Brogdon at that spot.