OT: General OT Thread [NO POLITICS OR RELIGION]

[MickeyDavis]

Yup, I think if people manage expectations they'll be ok. If anyone expects that a switch will be flipped and everything opens up and everything is back to normal they'll be greatly disappointed. It's going to be baby steps. Mentally it will help when the weather gets better (like today in SE Wisconsin).

[RogerMurdock]

Additionally, NYC paramedics estimating that ~180 people per day die in their homes of COVID and are never tested, so they don't count. We're not testing the dead (which makes sense, but doesn't paint an accurate picture of the crisis).

This ain't the flu. This ain't gonorrhea in NBA players. This is real ****. Keep your asses at home.

Total cases and deaths are going to end up WAY WAY WAY under-reported. Tons of deaths are going to be attributed to flu, pneumonia, etc. And loads of people have had coronavirus and will have it and never get tested. I personally know one guy and his kid who are sure they had it, but never got tested. Only famous people and those who get really sick get tested (generalizing).

[DingleJerry]

I saw something yesterday that NY estimates something like 150 people a day have been dying in their homes from it. But, they're not testing dead people so it doesn't count to the totals.

For the "this is the flu" crowd still trying to chirp in, just man up and take the L at this point. You were way way off.

[MickeyDavis]

Yup we'll never know the true numbers. It's been a month and a day from"everyone who wants a test can get a test" and we're nowhere near that point. Between that and purposely suppressing numbers they will definitely end up on the "low end". Let's just hope if there's one "good" thing about this it's that we'll be a hell of a lot more ready for the next one. And there will be a next one. Obviously test kits can't be done ahead of time, you have to wait until you have a virus to test for. But testing kits need to ramp up immediately, not wait for the deniers to slowly come around.

[Kerb Hohl]

The test kits in the US have been doing better than most of the rest of the world. Unfortunately, once you let the fire start, you cannot contain.

Korea was able to manage the issue with 10-12k tests per day.

Starting March 5th, here's roughly how many tests per day that we've run in each week.
March 4 week: About 500/day
March 11 week: About 5,000/day
March 18 week: 30,000 to 50,000/day
March 25 week: 75,000 to 125,000/day
April 1 week: 150,000 to 200,000/day

And that's still not even close to enough. Meanwhile, Korea just got it fast enough and controls fast enough (some of the controls I'm not even sure would be accepted in America, they were more ready) and were able to test most people that they needed to with 10% of what we have today...and we aren't close to enough testing everyone we need now with 200,000 tests per day (maybe delayed, but that's still a lot).

Other than Germany, Europe and the rest of the developed world aren't getting close to this magnitude of testing. And right now, it's not enough. It should hopefully be once we've contained the fire.

We should know the true numbers eventually with more data. Blood tests and data modeling should be able to reverse engineer it. We can maybe try to estimate the undercounted deaths as well. The deaths, while of course terrible, are at a much smaller magnitude of underreport than the missing cases and may not make a huge dent in the mortality rate in the end if this truly has as many cases as we think.

[DingleJerry]

Well as far as ahead of time stuff. Besides disbanding the whole pandemic department that many of us heard about a few weeks ago, and of course Trump said he didn't know about. Either admitting incompetence or lying. Remember Fauchi spoke up about that last summer pushing how this is the biggest threat we could face. He also got rid of this program a few months back. I believe they'd identified several coronaviruses as threats. It would only make sense to start working on vaccines and tests. Don't hold me to if this and the other program are tied together, IDK, I could be misunderstanding and they're one in the same.

https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/program/predict

[Bucksfan28]

WIsh I was as optimistic about a somewhat return to normalcy in the summer months. I've basically written off that possibility. This **** sucks.

Yeah I don't think 'normal' is coming anytime soon but I am optimistic we can get creative and start ramping back to more normal in the coming months.

Not specific to you or this post but I feel like I see a lot of binary thinking online where it's all or nothing in this. Like the people who are quick to poop on any outside the box idea for sports leagues returning or other businesses. IMO we don't need to completely eliminate risk, taking measures to lower the risk to an acceptable level has to be in the table or we'll just be shut down for over a year.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

Yea, I wasn't trying to imply that it'd be a complete reverse of fortune. But even having the ability to go to bars and restaurants or watch sports w/o fans just seems like a pipedream. Maybe I'm just tampering my expectations so as to not be disappointed. I also agree on the risk front. What that acceptable level is, I have no clue.

Mentally it will help when the weather gets better (like today in SE Wisconsin).

Agreed, but there will be a lot of people anxious to get outside/go somewhere. Hopefully that doesn't promote the spread.

[crkone]

We officially collected our first convalescent plasma yesterday (from Dr. Lal from CHW). Just the beginning. More to come!

https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-survivor-donates-plasma-in-hopes-to-save-lives-one-of-the-first-in-wisconsin

[WeekapaugGroove]

Read on Twitter

Antibody testing will be a great step.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

[Pachinko_]

I was stopped by the police last night and it took a lot to talk them out of giving me a $2k fine. I was on my way to my friends factory to help him repair and set up a used bandsaw he bought, but because this is not my day job they said I wasnt allowed to be outside. Only going to work, doctor, shopping for essentials and exercise is allowed. I think in the end the fact that I holding a bag with a blowtorch and an angle grinder convinced them that I was probably not out for drinks LOL

[RogerMurdock]

I think in the end the fact that I holding a bag with a blowtorch and an angle grinder convinced them that I was probably not out for drinks LOL

Great cops they were, not nabbing you before your heist starts.

[Kerb Hohl]

We officially collected our first convalescent plasma yesterday (from Dr. Lal from CHW). Just the beginning. More to come!

https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-survivor-donates-plasma-in-hopes-to-save-lives-one-of-the-first-in-wisconsin

Do you have confidence that this will work? I’m hoping for any ray of hope in some of this in terms of treatment.

[stellation]

I think in the end the fact that I holding a bag with a blowtorch and an angle grinder convinced them that I was probably not out for drinks LOL

Great cops they were, not nabbing you before your heist starts.

"What's this balaclava for?"
"Might be a bit cold out on the way home, officer."
"What are these gloves for?"
"Reducing contact with surfaces, officer. Because of the virus, officer."
"The crowbar?"
"In case I come across a stranded motorist, officer. Didn't have a tyre iron, you see."
"This handgun?"
"In case I see an urban fox out and about, officer!"
"It's hard to tell in this light, how would you describe your skin tone?"
"Olive, oficer."
"Olive, eh? Well then we might just have to.."
"Sorry, I meant to say white, officer!"
"White?"
"Yes officer!"
"Alright, all seems to be above board- move along then matey. Have a goodnight."

[crkone]

We officially collected our first convalescent plasma yesterday (from Dr. Lal from CHW). Just the beginning. More to come!

https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-survivor-donates-plasma-in-hopes-to-save-lives-one-of-the-first-in-wisconsin

Do you have confidence that this will work? I’m hoping for any ray of hope in some of this in terms of treatment.

Yep. Worked against a host of other diseases including rabies, diphtheria, bird flu, and even the Spanish flu in 1918. It didn't work with Ebola but that was a different story.

[Kerb Hohl]

We officially collected our first convalescent plasma yesterday (from Dr. Lal from CHW). Just the beginning. More to come!

https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-survivor-donates-plasma-in-hopes-to-save-lives-one-of-the-first-in-wisconsin

Do you have confidence that this will work? I’m hoping for any ray of hope in some of this in terms of treatment.

Yep. Worked against a host of other diseases including rabies, diphtheria, bird flu, and even the Spanish flu in 1918. It didn't work with Ebola but that was a different story.

Yeah, that would be huge then. Good to hear. Hopefully it keeps people both in critical/serious condition and also helps build immunity to frontline workers. Maybe way down the road we'd have enough to give to even more people than that.

[crkone]

Do you have confidence that this will work? I’m hoping for any ray of hope in some of this in terms of treatment.

Yep. Worked against a host of other diseases including rabies, diphtheria, bird flu, and even the Spanish flu in 1918. It didn't work with Ebola but that was a different story.

Yeah, that would be huge then. Good to hear. Hopefully it keeps people both in critical/serious condition and also helps build immunity to frontline workers. Maybe way down the road we'd have enough to give to even more people than that.

Ideally, everyone would get COVID-19 naturally. Then if/when they get symptoms, you pump them full of convalescent plasma. The exposure to the initial COVID-19 hopefully would allow you body to start antigen recognition to develop antibodies (3-10 days after exposure, generally) and then the convalescent plasma would help so the virus and symptoms following wouldn't overwhelm. So in best case scenarios you get it and develop a fever, you immediately report it to your doctor, he tells you to go to Versiti or the Red Cross (or they mobilize to your house), you get an infusion of convalescent plasma, and you rest. This really is something that should be developed more in the future, especially for influenza or any other pulmonary/blood infections.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yep. Worked against a host of other diseases including rabies, diphtheria, bird flu, and even the Spanish flu in 1918. It didn't work with Ebola but that was a different story.

Yeah, that would be huge then. Good to hear. Hopefully it keeps people both in critical/serious condition and also helps build immunity to frontline workers. Maybe way down the road we'd have enough to give to even more people than that.

Ideally, everyone would get COVID-19 naturally. Then if/when they get symptoms, you pump them full of convalescent plasma. The exposure to the initial COVID-19 hopefully would allow you body to start antigen recognition to develop antibodies (3-10 days after exposure, generally) and then the convalescent plasma would help so the virus and symptoms following wouldn't overwhelm. So in best case scenarios you get it and develop a fever, you immediately report it to your doctor, he tells you to go to Versiti or the Red Cross (or they mobilize to your house), you get an infusion of convalescent plasma, and you rest. This really is something that should be developed more in the future, especially for influenza or any other pulmonary/blood infections.

That would be great if it works this way.

Obviously it will probably take great amounts of volunteers (and I think people are really in the right mindset to do this right now) but will take a few months still to hit a tipping point of people that can donate plasma vs. people that eventually need it.

[crkone]

Yeah, that would be huge then. Good to hear. Hopefully it keeps people both in critical/serious condition and also helps build immunity to frontline workers. Maybe way down the road we'd have enough to give to even more people than that.

Ideally, everyone would get COVID-19 naturally. Then if/when they get symptoms, you pump them full of convalescent plasma. The exposure to the initial COVID-19 hopefully would allow you body to start antigen recognition to develop antibodies (3-10 days after exposure, generally) and then the convalescent plasma would help so the virus and symptoms following wouldn't overwhelm. So in best case scenarios you get it and develop a fever, you immediately report it to your doctor, he tells you to go to Versiti or the Red Cross (or they mobilize to your house), you get an infusion of convalescent plasma, and you rest. This really is something that should be developed more in the future, especially for influenza or any other pulmonary/blood infections.

That would be great if it works this way.

Obviously it will probably take great amounts of volunteers (and I think people are really in the right mindset to do this right now) but will take a few months still to hit a tipping point of people that can donate plasma vs. people that eventually need it.

Yeah that's why the antibody tests being developed are important too. That is also currently in development. The exciting part is diagnostic blood centers like Versiti or the Red Cross have the infrastructure to see this through from antibody test development to clinical trials for therapy to even transportation and delivery of product to hospitals.

[REDDzone]

crkone...should this make me panic as much as it did when I first read it yesterday?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

[crkone]

crkone...should this make me panic as much as it did when I first read it yesterday?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

This paper is pretty interesting. I wouldn't be worried. Some people just don't develop antibodies successfully but still are fine. The neat thing is they see antibody levels negatively correlated with lymphocytes and positively correlated with blood CRP levels. It could be T-cells and probably NK cells clearing out the infection before antibodies are being produced. When the virus sticks around and antibodies start being produced the complement system is probably activating increasing inflammation (CRP levels).