PG: Bucks Come Up Short in Miami

Isocleas2 · Post #181 » by **Isocleas2** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 4:22 pm

Schedule loss, not putting much stock into it.

Also as for the discussion about bud not making adjustments I like the idea of not showing your hand against the other eastern conference contenders, save that for when it matters. I would like them to try making adjustments against a couple bottom feeders just to get some practice at it though.

FrieAaron · Post #182 » by **FrieAaron** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 4:55 pm

Honestly, going into a 6 game in 9 night stretch where the average opponent winning percentage is 57% and only one of those games is at home, it wouldn't be surprising to end this stretch 3-3. It's very hard.

LUKE23 · Post #183 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:03 pm

To beat Milwaukee, a team generally needs to do both of the following things:

1. Hold Giannis under 25 ppg at a reasonably low efficiency (for him)
2. Hit 12+ 3's at a high efficiency

Last year in the playoffs, the Bucks lost five games:

Boston: Celtics 13/31 from 3 (.419), Bucks 13/39 from 3 (.333), Giannis 7/21 from the field for 22 points (Celtics win by 22)
Toronto: Raptors 17/45 from 3 (.380), Bucks 14/44 from 3 (.318), Giannis 5/16 from the field for 12 points (Raptors win by 6)
Toronto: Raptors 14/41 from 3 (.341), Bucks 11/34 from 3 (.314), Giannis 9/17 from the field for 25 points (Raptors win by 18)
Toronto: Raptors 18/43 from 3 (.419), Bucks 10/31 from 3 (.323), Giannis 9/18 from the field for 24 points (Raptors win by 6)
Toronto: Raptors 12/27 from 3 (.444), Bucks 12/34 from 3 (.353), Giannis 7/18 from the field for 21 points (Raptors win by 6)

Only outlier game I really see in there is the second Raptors win, Bucks shot relatively comparable from 3, Giannis had a decent night, and Bucks still got blown out. Otherwise it was a team killing Milwaukee from 3, holding down Giannis, or both. Given that Giannis has improved, and the Bucks interior D is better than last year (meaning teams will need to shoot even better from 3), I think it will be tough for anyone to do that four times, given how well Bucks play at home.

Taking a look at this years losses:

MIA: MIA 16/44 (.364), MIL 17/54 (.315), Giannis 29 points on 21 FGA. Heat win in OT by 5.
BOS: BOS 17/41 (.415), MIL 14/45 (.311), Giannis 22 points on 13 FGA. Celtics win by 11.
UTA: UTA 15/36 (.417), MIL 10/36 (.278), Giannis 30 points on 22 FGA. Jazz win by 3 at buzzer.
DAL: DAL 16/41 (.390), MIL 11/41 (.268), Giannis 48 points on 31 FGA. Mavs win by 4.
PHI: PHI 21/44 (.477), MIL 13/33 (.394), Giannis 18 points on 27 FGA. Sixers win by 12.
SAS: SAS 19/35 (.543), MIL 15/45 (.333), Giannis 24 points on 22 FGA. Spurs win by 22.
DEN: DEN 22/46 (.478), MIL 12/40 (.300), Giannis 31 points on 27 shots. Nuggets win by 12.
IND: IND 9/27 (.333), MIL 13/37 (.351), Giannis DNP. Pacers win by 11. I'd throw this one out.
MIA: MIA 18/37 (.486), MIL 7/34 (.206), Giannis 13 points on 18 shots. Heat win by 16.

A few things on this season, for the most part, holding down Giannis is tougher than last year, he has played well even in the Bucks losses. Last night may have been his worst game of the year or in the conversation for it.

Secondly, in six of their nine losses they had teams go pretty crazy from 3. I believe Boston tied a franchise record in the game they won, and Philly set a franchise record in their win. Nuggets and Spurs also went berserk hot from deep. Now, some could maybe argue that that's a hole in Bud's system, but I feel like this year, a team is going to have to shoot like that four times (lets say 15+ 3's, at around .400 or better) to beat the Bucks. Very tough.

LUKE23 · Post #184 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:22 pm

Another interesting stat, of the top 8 SRS teams, Bucks are only team outside the top 8 in 3 point % allowed (and they are 18th).

1. MIL - 18th
2. LAL - 6th
3. LAC - 8th
4. BOS - 3rd
5. TOR - 1st
6. DAL - 4th
7. HOU - 7th
9. DEN - 5th

PG Graveyard · Post #185 » by **PG Graveyard** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:25 pm

Agreed....The one difference from last year is our interior D keeps getting better. It was great last night. I was most confident when Miami had Butler and Bam out there trying to do stuff. Everything those guys made was challenged. It is really going to take big time shooting efforts to beat this team and the Bucks also have to shoot terribly or Giannis has to be cut off. It was pretty clear that Giannis was gassed last night as well as pretty much the entire team.

DingleJerry · Post #186 » by **DingleJerry** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:30 pm

I really thought this would've been a good game to load manage Giannis. But, it seems they try to do these things vs bad teams.

PG Graveyard · Post #187 » by **PG Graveyard** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:30 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Another interesting stat, of the top 8 SRS teams, Bucks are only team outside the top 8 in 3 point % allowed (and they are 18th).

1. MIL - 18th
2. LAL - 6th
3. LAC - 8th
4. BOS - 3rd
5. TOR - 1st
6. DAL - 4th
7. HOU - 7th
9. DEN - 5th

This means teams are shooting a better percentage from 3 than the rest of the league right? I wonder how that correlates based on open/not open shots.

RedMosquito76 · Post #188 » by **RedMosquito76** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:33 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
RedMosquito76 wrote:As a lurker on this board for over a decade, I have come to expect people freaking out about losses and/or poor performances. But they are 52-9 after a very predictable schedule loss. Lets all take a breath, huh?

Having grown up in the Moncrief/Pierce/Cummings/Pressey days, I can say without equivocation that so far this has been the season I've been dreaming about for a really long time. Keep the faith boys & girls!

Who's freaking out? The most emotional reactions in threads like this are almost always from the people who can't tolerate any criticism of the Bucks or questions about whether they'll be as good as they seem now in the playoffs. The skeptics are generally pretty rational about it.

Perhaps I overreacted to what I read as overreaction in the first 5 or 6 pages of this thread. Party on, sir.

DingleJerry · Post #189 » by **DingleJerry** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 5:34 pm

Yea that's definitely the biggest weakness of the team. And rather than ignore I don't see why they shouldn't try to improve it. I would expect the coaches don't see that and just brush it off like many fans do along the lines of "so what they're the 1 D it doesn't matter". Which is generally true, positives outweigh the negs and all, but doesn't mean you can't tweak and get better

crkone · Post #190 » by **crkone** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 6:04 pm

I've done this before but I'll do it again:

In losses,

Bucks allow 45.2% on open 3s, about 11-12% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks allow 45.5% on wide open 3s, about 7% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks shoot 28.4% on wide open 3s, about 10% lower than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst shooting in the league.

Teams hit 3s at historic rates and the Bucks miss 3s at historic rates, Bucks lose.

LUKE23 · Post #191 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 6:10 pm

crkone wrote:I've done this before but I'll do it again:

In losses,

Bucks allow 45.2% on open 3s, about 11-12% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks allow 45.5% on wide open 3s, about 7% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks shoot 28.4% on wide open 3s, about 10% lower than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst shooting in the league.

Teams hit 3s at historic rates and the Bucks miss 3s at historic rates, Bucks lose.

Really interesting, even though it is only a 9 game sample.

crkone · Post #192 » by **crkone** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 6:13 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
crkone wrote:I've done this before but I'll do it again:

In losses,

Bucks allow 45.2% on open 3s, about 11-12% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks allow 45.5% on wide open 3s, about 7% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks shoot 28.4% on wide open 3s, about 10% lower than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst shooting in the league.

Teams hit 3s at historic rates and the Bucks miss 3s at historic rates, Bucks lose.

Really interesting, even though it is only a 9 game sample.

Small sample size but still a decent sample. I should say that when I put worst allowed/shooting that is limited to losses. So the Bucks are the worst at allowing wide open 3s to go in and shooting wide open 3s in losses in the league.

TD75 · Post #193 » by **TD75** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 6:15 pm

I am not sure I can accept the premise that if the Bucks' opponents start shooting from 3 extremely successfully the game is over and it should be placed in the "bad luck column".

In fact, I would expect adjustments to be made mid-game to deal with it. Significant adjustments if need be.

(No adjusting after a couple of games in a playoff series, when the whole world knows you need to play differently - start switching in the Boston series last year for example - may help win a series but does not guarantee success).

There are (just a few) coaches in the NBA that are elite in adjusting mid-game.

crkone · Post #194 » by **crkone** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 6:41 pm

TD75 wrote:I am not sure I can accept the premise that if the Bucks' opponents start shooting from 3 extremely successfully the game is over and it should be placed in the "bad luck column".

In fact, I would expect adjustments to be made mid-game to deal with it. Significant adjustments if need be.

(No adjusting after a couple of games in a playoff series, when the whole world knows you need to play differently - start switching in the Boston series last year for example - may help win a series but does not guarantee success).

There are (just a few) coaches in the NBA that are elite in adjusting mid-game.

Adjustments can be made if you can pinpoint a specific reason for why the wide open 3 was made. The league average for wide open 3s allowed is 16 a game so all teams allow wide open 3s. Hell in the playoffs last year it was around the same if not a bit more with the Raptors allowing 17.7 a game. It's not just opponents shooting any 3s. They are the same wide open 3s that they would make based on any different scheme you can throw at them. The only difference may be when the shot is taken on the shot clock. Fun fact, in losses the Bucks allow 56.9% from 3 with 18-15 seconds left on the shot clock. That is 20% higher than league average in all games.

mattg · Post #195 » by **mattg** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 6:49 pm

Most wide open 3s are the result of over helping or just choosing to help when realistically you should just leave your teammate on an island 1on1 and live with the results.

Ron Swanson · Post #196 » by **Ron Swanson** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 7:41 pm

I get that it's annoying to keep explaining away losses on 3PT disparity, but Bill Simmons actually made a good point a few weeks ago on his podcast. Basically boiled it down to teams feeling like jacking up 3's is the only way to beat the Bucks, as opposed to it being some sort of weakness or fatal flaw in the system. Constantly dictating the tempo and forcing the other team to play a certain way is the hallmark of any great defense.

DingleJerry · Post #197 » by **DingleJerry** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 8:06 pm

Generally agree. And that's certainly why you'd expect a higher number of total 3s shot. Also, along with teams being usually behind by a lot so they chuck them up. But things like % made, % of wide open, etc could be improved upon. I suppose some deeper digging on those % things could also be broken down to eliminate blowout situations from the numbers. However, it's kinda crazy to think that might actually lead to it being a very small sample even after 60 games and so much time has been spent with big leads.

Bucksfan28 · Post #198 » by **Bucksfan28** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 8:11 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:as opposed to it being some sort of weakness or fatal flaw in the system. Constantly dictating the tempo and forcing the other team to play a certain way is the hallmark of any great defense.

To that point, the two EC defenses that will allegedly give the Bucks trouble (Miami and Toronto) allow roughly the same 3PA/gm. And when you take open + wide open 3's allowed, all three teams come out to similar totals.

coolhandluke121 · Post #199 » by **coolhandluke121** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 8:12 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
crkone wrote:I've done this before but I'll do it again:

In losses,

Bucks allow 45.2% on open 3s, about 11-12% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks allow 45.5% on wide open 3s, about 7% higher than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst allowed in the league.

Bucks shoot 28.4% on wide open 3s, about 10% lower than league average in all games wins and losses. Worst shooting in the league.

Teams hit 3s at historic rates and the Bucks miss 3s at historic rates, Bucks lose.

Really interesting, even though it is only a 9 game sample.

Shouldn't someone crunch the same stats for every team's losses in order to see whether this is really a huge discrepancy? I imagine that opponents being especially hot from 3 and/or you being especially cold from 3 is pretty highly correlated with wins and losses for lots of teams.

The Bucks don't defend the 3 particularly well. They give up lots of them and surrender a high percentage. As long as they do it, teams that shoot the 3 well will have a chance to beat them. Other teams might have similar splits, but if they don't have a defense that gives up as many open looks, it's not going to hurt them as much.

coolhandluke121 · Post #200 » by **coolhandluke121** » Tue Mar 3, 2020 8:15 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:. Basically boiled it down to teams feeling like jacking up 3's is the only way to beat the Bucks, as opposed to it being some sort of weakness or fatal flaw in the system.

That would explain the high number of attempts, but how does it explain the high efficiency?? If anything, this would imply that teams should be chucking up more "bad" 3-point attempts against the Bucks and hitting a lower percentage, but they're getting a lot of good looks and hitting a high percentage.