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OT: Covid-19 - NO POLITICS!!!

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OT: Covid-19 - NO POLITICS!!! 

Post#1 » by MickeyDavis » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:06 pm

We're going to separate the virus talk from the other OT discussions.

The no politics policy is in place in this thread. While politics is certainly a part of this, if you want to discuss those aspects you can do so in the Current Affairs forum. Thanks.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#2 » by FlagsFlyForever » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:17 pm

I'm seeing people say it was a mistake to shut down businesses and issue stay at home orders because the death toll estimates are much lower than originally feared.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#3 » by steger_3434 » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:24 pm

I just don’t see how things could have been shut down faster. I’m actually proud of the way we’ve handled this. I’m also a proud American and don’t hate this country like so many do. I don’t see any chance how you can close an entire country over the threat of a virus. You’d be closing down this country at least once every 5 years or so. Can things be handled better? They always can. In basketball terms giannis could be better, Jordan and lebron could be better. But overall I think a country of 335 MILLION people have handled this better than almost all of Europe. But that’s just me. If I don’t bash the country I live in I’m fool so


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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#4 » by MickeyDavis » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:30 pm

ElPeregrino wrote:I'm seeing people say it was a mistake to shut down businesses and issue stay at home orders because the death toll estimates are much lower than originally feared.

Yup, lots of that. As I said in the other thread I'm hearing/reading "the experts were wrong, it's not as bad as they thought". It's because the experts were right and we took these measures that the numbers are lower. But they won't stay lower if we stop doing what we're doing.

We shut things down pretty fast. The slow ramp up of testing is a disgrace.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#5 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:35 pm

I am in the middle on this opinion. We blew a lot of it early but there is nuance. It would've been tougher than we thought to shut down and this thing likely would've blindsided cities anyways, but we could've done a lot more in trusting the early testing measures and prepping hospitals/supplies.

The only thing that bothers me is that some are unwilling to change their opinion of what is happening right now on the fly. It's always going to be, "we're an utter failure, we've failed" no matter how well things are changing for the better or worse on a given day or week.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#6 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:38 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:
ElPeregrino wrote:I'm seeing people say it was a mistake to shut down businesses and issue stay at home orders because the death toll estimates are much lower than originally feared.

Yup, lots of that. As I said in the other thread I'm hearing/reading "the experts were wrong, it's not as bad as they thought". It's because the experts were right and we took these measures that the numbers are lower. But they won't stay lower if we stop doing what we're doing.

We shut things down pretty fast. The slow ramp up of testing is a disgrace.


We'll agree to disagree, I don't know if I've studied exactly why testing is "only" increasing at 5x or 10x per week in the US, but it's been a lot worse elsewhere.

That said, maybe they could move mountains to do this and are not moving the mountains at a time when they absolutely should be moving mountains, I don't know.

But one thing to remember is that while I'm sure, "sorry, you can't get tested" is a big deal in some isolated cases, having the 5 million tests/day or more that we may need is not of utmost importance right now. If you just tell anyone with symptoms to quarantine then that's as good as a positive test. We've blown far past the point of even being able to detect half of the cases (like Korea maybe has) for scientific purposes.

Once we hopefully have contained the fire, then you need ample testing and tracking to slow it. Let's hope we get it.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#7 » by DingleJerry » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:39 pm

To the talk at the end of last thread. The discussion on how badly the USA managed this comes to these points

1) Due to our isolation we had a huge advantage to prep and we didn't it. If we did, maybe this massive shutdown wouldn't have been needed, or at least it could've been shorter or earlier and less people died. Instead we were stubborn and acted like it wouldn't happen here, defying all logic and science.
2) Due to that we didn't preemptively get PPE, space, and ventilators ready, instead we had to scramble. Costing us lives. With the prep time we had this should've all been ready
3) We didn't test until Mid March. This was the clear biggest mistake. If we'd have tested earlier we'd have clearly known to do step 2. I mean, we literally turned down ready tests from the WHO to do it ourselves and then messed it all up. And now our president is trying to blame the WHO.
4) If we tested earlier a shutdown could've happened a week or two earlier, saving thousands of lives
5) Not using the Defense act to centralize the distribution of equipment. This is basic common sense and it's not being done for who knows why. I'd guess it's to all the companies to gauge states on price and help out his buddies at those companies.

What they did right was shutting down travel from China fairly early. That's kind of the one thing the feds did correctly.

Big pic I'd say the summary would be besides shutting down China travel early the Fed government has messed up pretty much every step of the way. The reason we're still doing better than thought a few weeks ago is that the people themselves have done a good job listening on this shutdown, that has nothing to do with the operation of the federal government. It's the people. Second, the medical professionals themselves trucking through this and finding a way inspite of equipment shortages. Third, state governments scrambling and getting stuff done. Like NY is getting crushed, but can we really say that local government hasn't done absolutely all they could given the hand they were dealt.

TLDR, the people themselves and local governments have generally done a good job. The feds did a crap job in assisting and prepping for this. If your take on gov is that the states should have power and feds not and can now say "see, they found a way to get it done without the feds" then I guess you can make a case. But imo, this situation is exactly what the feds should be there for and if they'd have done their jobs this would've been way less than it is. Lets say it ends 60Kish after this spring time, I'd guess that number would've been massively cut down if they'd have simply not blown the testing advantage we had and properly prepped on PPE and ventilators. Testing being by far the biggest F up, and that was directly on the feds. Heck, with proper early testing there might really not have been too much of a PPE and Ventilator shortage because the number would've been drastically lower.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#8 » by crkone » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:45 pm

I think the only thing we have to wonder about is if it's going to be a continued 1st wave of COVID-19 or two separate waves.

By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epidemic

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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#9 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:47 pm

DingleJerry wrote:Big pic I'd say the summary would be besides shutting down China travel early the Fed government has messed up pretty much every step of the way. The reason we're still doing better than thought a few weeks ago is that the people themselves have done a good job listening on this shutdown, that has nothing to do with the operation of the federal government. It's the people. Second, the medical professionals themselves trucking through this and finding a way inspite of equipment shortages. Third, state governments scrambling and getting stuff done. Like NY is getting crushed, but can we really say that local government hasn't done absolutely all they could given the hand they were dealt.


Well, this is kinda my point.

"It's the people" but they are under the direction of the federal (or state) government.

So early on, no matter your opinion of why, the response might've been bungled. But the baseline bar is, "listen to the scientists" which might have solved a lot of said early issues.

Well, it seems like they're listening to the scientists now. So I mean, it's an extremely low bar, but the federal government is not telling people NOT to shut down. From what I understand, it is not constitutional to call for a federal shutdown...of course maybe a more stern request for states to do so would've been in order. But all I'm saying is that while the bar is very low of, "listen to the scientists and let them work" appears to be in motion. And the people are following suit.

On the medical shortages - again, agree with some that we were slow to respond with the DPE among other things...but you can basically name any other country and they're running out of supplies. China, who makes most of these supplies is running out. It's the umbrella in a hurricane thing. We should've done better and saving 2,000 lives by doing "better" out of 80,000 or whatever by October is a big deal but I think the opponent we're facing is being underestimated here.

I agree that the federal level may be doing this to just say, "not our responsibility" but one can argue that each state could be/should be dealing with this in their own way based on their own needs. Montana does not need the same response as New York. Maybe there should be some more federal prodding to get states like Florida on board, but I can see that argument.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#10 » by humanrefutation » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:50 pm

I'm not really interested in comparing our response to the rest of the west. But I do know that there were several massive mistakes that were made early on in this process that are inexcusable for a country with this amount of money and power. The lack of testing preparedness, the lack of PPE, the piss poor state of our ventilator reserve, the awful commentary you were seeing from some political leaders who were either mocking the purported severity of this pandemic, pushing blatant falsehoods about its threat, or making dangerous comments about treatment were all major mistakes that could have been avoided with a little less political rancor and a little more personal investment in the well being of this nation. That's even distinct from the impacts on our voting process.

America is a much bigger country and yes, it is hard to just shut everything down in a federalist democracy. And truthfully, some places were probably always going to get hit pretty hard absent a Wuhan-like shutdown - aka NYC. But we also are the wealthiest country, with the greatest access to resources, and we had a head start on this one that some other countries did not have. The fact that we didn't have testing and PPE and other needed medical equipment ready to be deployed is pathetic. The fact that our healthcare workers are getting sick and dying - and those who are not, are forced to confront this pandemic with **** trash bags and homemade masks made out of scarves, risking their lives to treat others - is pathetic.

That's the problem, really. More people are dying than had to because of this thing. You didn't need to be Nostradamus to take the basic steps needed to prepared for this possibility, and you don't need to be Abraham Lincoln to figure out what to do once it starts. You just needed people from all levels government uniformly committed to combating this pandemic.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#11 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:51 pm

crkone wrote:I think the only thing we have to wonder about is if it's going to be a continued 1st wave of COVID-19 or two separate waves.

By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epidemic


Yeah, and it's probably going to be more like 1% of the population exposed in Wisconsin and 5-10% exposed in New York to make up that 3%, so different areas will have different concerns.

The "bad" way that we have to beat this thing might be that it either happens faster than we know and beats the timeline of a vaccine to people having a large level of immunity (hopefully in a slow burn) or that we don't get great vaccines and have to just manage spike after spike until our population has a bit of a perpetual firewall if there is not lifetime immunity.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#12 » by crkone » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:05 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
crkone wrote:I think the only thing we have to wonder about is if it's going to be a continued 1st wave of COVID-19 or two separate waves.

By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epidemic


Yeah, and it's probably going to be more like 1% of the population exposed in Wisconsin and 5-10% exposed in New York to make up that 3%, so different areas will have different concerns.

The "bad" way that we have to beat this thing might be that it either happens faster than we know and beats the timeline of a vaccine to people having a large level of immunity (hopefully in a slow burn) or that we don't get great vaccines and have to just manage spike after spike until our population has a bit of a perpetual firewall if there is not lifetime immunity.

I think if I was in charge I'd open everything up while mandating social distancing (mandatory homemade masks even if they don't work well) and limits on public transportation with the caveat that everything will be shut back down at a moment's notice if people don't follow the rules. That would be on a city to city basis but be mandated from the Feds. I'd even start sports back up but mandate tickets be sold at 10-25% capacity with strict testing for all athletes. All companies have to supply an overabundance of sanitizing solutions. I don't have faith people would continue with social distancing but whatever.

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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#13 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:09 pm

crkone wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
crkone wrote:I think the only thing we have to wonder about is if it's going to be a continued 1st wave of COVID-19 or two separate waves.



http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epidemic


Yeah, and it's probably going to be more like 1% of the population exposed in Wisconsin and 5-10% exposed in New York to make up that 3%, so different areas will have different concerns.

The "bad" way that we have to beat this thing might be that it either happens faster than we know and beats the timeline of a vaccine to people having a large level of immunity (hopefully in a slow burn) or that we don't get great vaccines and have to just manage spike after spike until our population has a bit of a perpetual firewall if there is not lifetime immunity.

I think if I was in charge I'd open everything up while mandating social distancing (mandatory homemade masks even if they don't work well) and limits on public transportation with the caveat that everything will be shut back down at a moment's notice if people don't follow the rules. That would be on a city to city basis but be mandated from the Feds. I'd even start sports back up but mandate tickets be sold at 10-25% capacity with strict testing for all athletes. All companies have to supply an overabundance of sanitizing solutions. I don't have faith people would continue with social distancing but whatever.


To confirm here - you'd probably let the distancing/shutdown hang around for another month or two to get us back to a lower starting point? Or just start things back in this fashion tomorrow?
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#14 » by DingleJerry » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:11 pm

Spoiler:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:Big pic I'd say the summary would be besides shutting down China travel early the Fed government has messed up pretty much every step of the way. The reason we're still doing better than thought a few weeks ago is that the people themselves have done a good job listening on this shutdown, that has nothing to do with the operation of the federal government. It's the people. Second, the medical professionals themselves trucking through this and finding a way inspite of equipment shortages. Third, state governments scrambling and getting stuff done. Like NY is getting crushed, but can we really say that local government hasn't done absolutely all they could given the hand they were dealt.


Well, this is kinda my point.

"It's the people" but they are under the direction of the federal (or state) government.

So early on, no matter your opinion of why, the response might've been bungled. But the baseline bar is, "listen to the scientists" which might have solved a lot of said early issues.

Well, it seems like they're listening to the scientists now. So I mean, it's an extremely low bar, but the federal government is not telling people NOT to shut down. From what I understand, it is not constitutional to call for a federal shutdown...of course maybe a more stern request for states to do so would've been in order. But all I'm saying is that while the bar is very low of, "listen to the scientists and let them work" appears to be in motion. And the people are following suit.

On the medical shortages - again, agree with some that we were slow to respond with the DPE among other things...but you can basically name any other country and they're running out of supplies. China, who makes most of these supplies is running out. It's the umbrella in a hurricane thing. We should've done better and saving 2,000 lives by doing "better" out of 80,000 or whatever by October is a big deal but I think the opponent we're facing is being underestimated here.

I agree that the federal level may be doing this to just say, "not our responsibility" but one can argue that each state could be/should be dealing with this in their own way based on their own needs. Montana does not need the same response as New York. Maybe there should be some more federal prodding to get states like Florida on board, but I can see that argument.


Nothing to drastically disagree with. Other than pointing out that in comparing to others with shortages you're forgetting t hat we had a massive advantage due to our location, we could have prevented that, they couldn't. We saw it happening there and ignored it and waited until it hit. For the giving government credit for the "listen to scientists" approach of now is fine for states. The federal government has literally fought this approach the whole time and consistently tries to undermine the scientist. Basically everyone did that in spite of the federal government, not because of them.

Bottomline, I think it's early for people to be acting like this was a great success as we're having a mini 9/11 every day right now.

For me, no government was going to get everything right. I get that. But the testing was just so basic and simple, that's a clear huge mistake that costs tens of thousands of lives and it could've helped fix or eliminate the need for many of the subsequent needs/issues/mistatkes afterward.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#15 » by crkone » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:13 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
crkone wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
Yeah, and it's probably going to be more like 1% of the population exposed in Wisconsin and 5-10% exposed in New York to make up that 3%, so different areas will have different concerns.

The "bad" way that we have to beat this thing might be that it either happens faster than we know and beats the timeline of a vaccine to people having a large level of immunity (hopefully in a slow burn) or that we don't get great vaccines and have to just manage spike after spike until our population has a bit of a perpetual firewall if there is not lifetime immunity.

I think if I was in charge I'd open everything up while mandating social distancing (mandatory homemade masks even if they don't work well) and limits on public transportation with the caveat that everything will be shut back down at a moment's notice if people don't follow the rules. That would be on a city to city basis but be mandated from the Feds. I'd even start sports back up but mandate tickets be sold at 10-25% capacity with strict testing for all athletes. All companies have to supply an overabundance of sanitizing solutions. I don't have faith people would continue with social distancing but whatever.


To confirm here - you'd probably let the distancing/shutdown hang around for another month or two to get us back to a lower starting point? Or just start things back in this fashion tomorrow?


I'd start this in June. I think it would give us a few months of social distancing practice to hopefully make it a new norm. I suppose opening a few more nonessential businesses could occur in May with strict guidelines.

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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#16 » by MikeIsGood » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:27 pm

I have absolutely no idea what the numbers look like, but if we're going to try to compare against other countries (doing which there are myriad variables to take into account), shouldn't we consider population density? Outside of the major hubs - such as NYC, which is the biggest disaster zone in the world - we are very spread out, whereas in many European countries (for example) you are effectively living on top of each other. I would think that plays into rates of infection, if not also death rate.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#17 » by DingleJerry » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:33 pm

MikeIsGood wrote:I have absolutely no idea what the numbers look like, but if we're going to try to compare against other countries (doing which there are myriad variables to take into account), shouldn't we consider population density? Outside of the major hubs - such as NYC, which is the biggest disaster zone in the world - we are very spread out, whereas in many European countries (for example) you are effectively living on top of each other. I would think that plays into rates of infection, if not also death rate.


Yes, that was another advantage I forgot. We had a lot of key advantages but failed to capitalize on them which could've led to this being a much smaller impact than its had. And could've put us at a massive economic advantage over the rest of the world while they're all shutdown (think of our boom after WW2) and we would not have been crushed nearly as bad.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#18 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:34 pm

MikeIsGood wrote:I have absolutely no idea what the numbers look like, but if we're going to try to compare against other countries (doing which there are myriad variables to take into account), shouldn't we consider population density? Outside of the major hubs - such as NYC, which is the biggest disaster zone in the world - we are very spread out, whereas in many European countries (for example) you are effectively living on top of each other. I would think that plays into rates of infection, if not also death rate.


Population density is a thing but there are spread out parts of Europe.

If one is comparing, you can kinda ignore Wyoming, Montana, etc., which are going to end up accounting for like 3% of the US deaths and are the factor that play into "the US is more spread out." It's kinda negligible to me.

I know there are a few random rural counties getting destroyed but on the whole, most of the damage is going to be done in the big cities.

I'd say right now the US vs. Western Europe is fairly even. We had an advantage, no doubt...but some entities took even worse risks than the US and some of them that got hit hard are doing way worse at testing. But we had the advantage so maybe should be doing better.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#19 » by HaroldinGMinor » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:36 pm

After reading how easily this thing spread in Chicago, Seattle, New York (where huge breakouts can literally be traced to one infected person going to a funeral, birthday party, etc) I think it's safe to say that this could have been a whole lot better had the feds taken this seriously from the get go. The goal post moving from the "its only the flu" people is astounding.
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Re: OT: Covid-19 

Post#20 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:43 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:After reading how easily this thing spread in Chicago, Seattle, New York (where huge breakouts can literally be traced to one infected person going to a funeral, birthday party, etc) I think it's safe to say that this could have been a whole lot better had the feds taken this seriously from the get go. The goal post moving from the "its only the flu" people is astounding.


There are some studies coming out that there may have been more spreaders than we think and roots in January and February in New York.

So do we think that the person might not have gone to/had the funeral on like February 23rd? Or if we stopped that person, would we have stopped the other funerals?

I get it and you can see what even one week earlier can do for something like California vs. New York. New York having parades and parties in that extra week probably made a huge difference, I just think learning more as we are now, I'm not sure that we really had, "damn...we had those 5 cases and we just needed to track them down." There were likely roots everywhere in New York at any time where we reasonably could've shut it down.

I was not a, "it's just the flu" person and am not really moving the goalposts. For me, ever since this has been blown, they've been in the same place.

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