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Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis

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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#21 » by Prez » Thu Oct 1, 2020 4:39 pm

It’s super early still but since we don’t have an incomplete or too early to tell category, I’d say Donte’s a hit. Legitimately good role player in his first healthy year who has a chance to be a GREAT role player in his prime (maybe peak Danny Green level or even better) is a win at 17. If he never improves or gets derailed by injuries we can reevaluate but for now that was a good pick imo.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#22 » by leroyjw10 » Thu Oct 1, 2020 4:40 pm

I feel like there needs to be a "super bust" category. Joe, Yi, Jabari, Thon, Haislip and Joel are super busts. DJ and Rashad also really hurt, especially considering other options that were available.

2nd rounders turning into nothing happens all the time, but a series of really bad lottery picks hurts a little extra something.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#23 » by ReasonablySober » Thu Oct 1, 2020 4:44 pm

Chuck Diesel wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
trwi7 wrote:
I actually meant worse than a slight miss. He had like a two year peak and took several to reach it and the peak wasn't even great.


Sorry, read that wrong. Bogut was slow to becoming an impact player, but he did eventually get there. And like I said, the rest of that draft was garbage.


Disagree. There were like 10 dudes taken after Bogut in the 1st and second round who were as good or better.


Yea, I disagree with that. At the time of Bogut's injury he was no worse than the 3rd best player in that class.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#24 » by emunney » Thu Oct 1, 2020 4:46 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
emunney wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
He hit one of the biggest shots in NBA history on the way to a championship. He's a hit.


By this standard, would John Paxson have been a worthy 1st overall pick?


Kyrie was also an All-Star in four of six seasons in Cleveland. Consider the shot to be the factor that tips the scales.

I've never been a big Kyrie fan by any stretch, but he delivered as much as Cleveland could have hoped for.


I'm just looking at a list that puts Tobias Harris as a slight hit and part of the rationale is that we traded down past Kawhi and Klay, but the dude who is also clearly worse than them and went #1 overall gets the same grade?

Anyway, I like the topic, but I think we're probably a C or C- drafting team, and getting Giannis at 15 alone takes us totally out of the running for anything like worst. And my philosophy is anytime you get a good player, it's a hit, and closer scrutiny is only warranted at the top of the draft where the expectations are on a different plane.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#25 » by EastSideBucksFan » Thu Oct 1, 2020 5:44 pm

No argument that Bucks have blown tons of draft picks

But, some of these are overly negative

Disagree Bogut, Larry and TJ are all misses. They were all good players that had careers derailed for unforeseen reasons except maybe TJ who I think had predraft spinal concerns.

Tobias, Jennings, Sessions, Ilyasova are a cut above "slight hits" and don't belong in the same category as Leuer and Meeks

Tobias has been a borderline all star in a few years

But, would be interested to see a league wide draft breakdown and where Bucks stack up
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#26 » by emunney » Thu Oct 1, 2020 7:59 pm

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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#27 » by M-C-G » Thu Oct 1, 2020 9:28 pm

Couple of things;
1. Need a more comprehensive scoring system to do this right
2. Injuries play a huge role in some of the guys missing on being home runs...Like Larry Sanders was a DPOY type guy who went off the deep end, Parker who knows and Bogut was finally a force and then his arm disintegrated
3. May want to consider something more like games played to define success or war or something
4. I appreciate your effort to put this together and no, I won't be making the effort to implement anything I suggested
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#28 » by benultimate » Thu Oct 1, 2020 11:31 pm

I feel like if Damir Markota was included it might tip the scales favourably
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#29 » by DrWood » Thu Oct 1, 2020 11:40 pm

This is useful if you want to get looks at individual draft classes or the draft history of different teams.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#30 » by AussieBuck » Thu Oct 1, 2020 11:52 pm

That isn't too bad a list. We've been awful at development otherwise that lot would stack up very well. Definitely **** up recently with both misses and trading picks. Need a quick restock of young dudes for Chris Paul to teach up somehow.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#31 » by DrWood » Thu Oct 1, 2020 11:57 pm

I'm not saying Win Shares is the best metric, but it was a simple one to use.

2018 Donte, 10th in WS, picked 17th.
2017 DJ, 31st in WS, picked 17th. Sterling, 22nd in WS, picked 46th.
2016 Brogdon, 4th in WS, picked 36th, Thon, 12th in WS, picked 10th (Siakam and Sabonis were both picked later).
2015 Vashaun, 44th in WS, picked 17th. They picked Norman Powell, but traded him.
2014 Jabari, 21st in WS, picked 2nd. Johnny O', 41st in WS, picked 36th; Iglis 47th in WS, picked 31st.
2013 Giannis, 1st in WS, picked 15th, Ricky Ledo, 51st in WS, picked 43rd.
2012 Henson, 14th in WS, picked 14th, Lamb, 46th in WS, picked 42nd (This was Middleton's draft and he obviously was a great acquisition).
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#32 » by Pachinko_ » Fri Oct 2, 2020 12:00 am

Ever since they made the eligibility age so young, the draft is like throwing darts blindfolded. It's fun to talk about it but in reality nobody here or in the teams staff knows what these kids will become.

There hasn't been a surefire star in years and years, and when a surefire star finally showed up 3 GMs passed on him LOL
That's how confusing the draft has become.

I guess Zion is probably the other one but to be honest at his size and bouncing like that nobody really knows how long he'll be able to play, we're all just hoping.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#33 » by mattg » Fri Oct 2, 2020 12:07 am

You just can't continually draft dudes who are such bums that you can't even recoup even a small amount of value by trading them and cutting your losses. Scouting has to be better. And let's be real, scouting is tough and EVERYONE gets stuff wrong, but the stuff the bucks continually get wrong is so amateur. Like these picks were so damn obviously atrocious.

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1456353&p=48395404&hilit=Thon#p48395404

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1395005&p=44073545&hilit=rashad+vaughn#p44073545

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1548469&p=54501067&hilit=Wilson#p54501067
viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1581623&p=56603261&hilit=Wilson#p56603261
viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1581842&p=56676236&hilit=Wilson#p56676236
viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1581842&p=56683481&hilit=Wilson#p56683481
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#34 » by tski1972 » Fri Oct 2, 2020 12:55 am

Come next draft, if mattg doesn’t like the pick we all know we’ve effed up.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#35 » by Pachinko_ » Fri Oct 2, 2020 2:00 am

I think you're underestimating how bad the whole league is at this thing called draft.

Here's the 2015 draft for example.

Past #1 you really have to squint to see any correlation between where players got drafted and what they have done since then.

Image


In short, the whole League collectively is pretty bad at drafting the players they actually want, it's not just the Bucks.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#36 » by tydett » Fri Oct 2, 2020 2:31 am

Think the biggest issue is that the Bucks haven't drafted in the impact position aside from the pick that became Jabari because they've never outright tanked aside from that accidental year. You should get more out of the 8th-12th pick than guys who are out of the league after their first contract, but it's not unrealistic to not get stars in that area. One would think that teams like the Knicks, Kings, and Suns would be at the top of bad drafting teams (Suns current roster notwithstanding) because they consistently pick in the top 5 year after year and then those players they draft wind up garbage.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#37 » by emunney » Fri Oct 2, 2020 2:32 am

Prez wrote:It’s super early still but since we don’t have an incomplete or too early to tell category, I’d say Donte’s a hit. Legitimately good role player in his first healthy year who has a chance to be a GREAT role player in his prime (maybe peak Danny Green level or even better) is a win at 17. If he never improves or gets derailed by injuries we can reevaluate but for now that was a good pick imo.


Donte can be a lot more than a great role player, all depends on how much more his skills can develop. His game's got great bones.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#38 » by ANTETOKOUNBROS » Fri Oct 2, 2020 3:18 am

emunney wrote:
Prez wrote:It’s super early still but since we don’t have an incomplete or too early to tell category, I’d say Donte’s a hit. Legitimately good role player in his first healthy year who has a chance to be a GREAT role player in his prime (maybe peak Danny Green level or even better) is a win at 17. If he never improves or gets derailed by injuries we can reevaluate but for now that was a good pick imo.


Donte can be a lot more than a great role player, all depends on how much more his skills can develop. His game's got great bones.


The sad thing is I see Donte’s upside as current Tyler Herro. Not an indictment on Donte as much as it is painful to miss and have a rival team hit and eliminate us when we are supposed to be owning the future today with the oldest roster in the playoffs.
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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#39 » by skones » Fri Oct 2, 2020 3:21 am

I don't agree with the value system at play here.

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Re: Are the Bucks the worst drafting team of the last 20 years? Quick analysis 

Post#40 » by vital_signs » Fri Oct 2, 2020 3:25 am

nate the great would be honored to be considered a bust.
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