RealGM

STRENGTHS: Good size at 6-foot-5. One of the draft’s elite-level shooters. Might have a case as the best. Merrill hit 42 percent of his 750-plus career 3-point attempts in his collegiate career and did so out of a variety of actions. Very quick release and knows what a smart shot is. He can act as a lead ballhandler and pull-up from both behind the 3-point line and from midrange. He can make them directly off of dribble hand-offs, a la Duncan Robinson for Miami this year. Made 14 3-pointers directly off dribble-hand-offs this year in 32 games. For reference, that’s nearly the same rate per game as Buddy Hield hit them in the NBA, who finished fourth in the league in made 3s off of hand-off actions. Unsurprisingly, he hits them off of screening actions with ease. Watch his game from 2019 against now-elite NBA defender Lu Dort when Dort played for Arizona State and you’ll see how Merrill’s ability to never stop moving and never stop being a threat to shoot tortures high-level defensive players. Merrill will be a 40-plus percent NBA 3-point shooter. Beyond that, Merrill has terrific basketball IQ. He knows what he’s doing out there. He rarely makes a poor decision and knows how to read defenses to stop him from doing so. He can probe defenses who close out on him heavily and make smart kickout passes to get defenders into rotation. Not elite vision but can hit the right guy in the right spot. Acted as Utah State’s lead guard often and has some upside to play as back-up pseudo point guard in the NBA, especially next to bigger wing creator. Took on tough defensive assignments for Utah State and handled them reasonably well. Typically stays in position on that end. Some NBA teams also believe there is some upside with his frame as he gets into more regimented strength, conditioning and dietary programs.

WEAKNESSES: The big question here revolves around Merrill’s athleticism. Doesn’t have elite quickness or speed. Lacks length. Likely will get picked on defensively in the consistently mismatch-hunting NBA despite the fact that he knows where to be and wants to defend. Will need to work on his body and quickness in order to stop that from happening at the NBA level. There is some reasonable downside here, in that his offense will have to be so valuable as to counteract some defensive questions in big moments. As a driver to the rim, he’s not a particularly good finisher. Only made 52.6 percent of his shots in half court settings at the college level in 2020, a slightly below-average clip. Will need to develop a more consistent floater game in order to be a scoring threat in the lane after teams close out heavily on him.

SUMMARY: The NBA keeps saying that it’s looking for elite-level shooters. Well, this is the guy. He has positional size at 6-foot-5, he shoots a ton of 3s, he shoots them in a variety of different situations and he makes them at more than a 40 percent clip. I think there is a reasonable case for taking him late in the first round for contending teams that needsomeone who can step in early and play a role. Any team with established stars that needs a boost in floor-spacing — think Philadelphia, Boston, the Lakers, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Dallas — could use a player like this who is happy to do whatever is asked of him. The defensive and athleticism questions are real, but I think he’s the closest thing in this draft to Duncan Robinson in his ability to not only make shots at an elite clip, but also generate them at a high clip.