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OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto

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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1021 » by MickeyDavis » Thu Sep 9, 2021 12:30 pm

Gianstoppable wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:
Gianstoppable wrote:Looking for suggestions on 401k advice. My employer was bought out earlier this year, the new owners offer an IRA that is separate than our 401k and Roth that we previously held. I just recieved in the mail a notice for 60 days ( really 30) notice to transfer funds.

Basically my question is what is the best route to go for this? I have started a new IRA with work and it finally kicked in last payday. I've looked at TD Ameritrade and other apps but wanted some other feedback. I have until October 11th to transfer or schedule an extension.


Your new employer offers an IRA instead of a 401k? With what company is it with? What happens if you do nothing, does your old 401k transfer to your new IRA? When I've left jobs I've rolled my old 401k into IRA's. I have accounts with both Vanguard and Fidelity. Both are good but I prefer the Fidelity app. My current 401k is with Fidelity.

Yeah IRA instead of 401k, they also only match yearly which sucks. I believe the IRA is through Stifel? If I do nothing it rolls into an IRA with Principal financial


I have no experience with Principal, you can check out their app and see what funds they offer and if they offer stocks. I'm assuming they offer the full array of choices.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1022 » by MickeyDavis » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:37 pm

FCEL got a nice bump this morning after reporting earnings. Puts me in the black.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1023 » by sidney lanier » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:04 pm

As a natural skeptic I've long been a fan of Bitcoin critiques that point out the obvious: that so far there is no there there. But this op-ed in today's New York Times is the best I've seen. I'll quote it almost in full since it's behind a paywall (that no one ever used Bitcoin to take down).

Bitcoin Cosplay Is Getting Real

It’s been a good month for Bitcoin believers. The currency of the future — or is it the future of currency? — became legal tender in El Salvador.

Some might dismiss as a publicity stunt the embrace of a digital currency by a country where only a third of the population has internet access. Some Salvadorans took to the streets to protest. But let’s not minimize this moment. Esperanto, the language of the future, never managed to become an official language in any country.

Bitcoin, for the uninitiated, is a technology that purports to solve a host of problems with old-fashioned national currencies. It is designed to safeguard wealth against the depredations of inflation, public authorities and financial intermediaries.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t work. Some products become popular because they’re useful. Bitcoin is popular despite being mostly useless. Its success rests on the simple fact that the value of a Bitcoin has increased dramatically since its introduction in 2009, making some people rich and inspiring others to hope they can ride the rocket, too.

It’s not really a virtual currency at all. It’s virtual gold, a vehicle for speculative investment made possible by some interesting technical innovations. It’s the absurd apotheosis of our financialized economy, an asset unmoored from any productive purpose. In the beginning were bonds and then synthetic bonds and then Bitcoin.

...

Virtual currencies, much like pickup trucks, are marketed for off-road use. But the reality is that the vast majority of users choose to stay on the streets and highways.

It’s possible, but hardly evident, that this new infrastructure will improve upon the existing financial system — for example, by making it cheaper to move money across borders. But that hasn’t happened yet. For now, the people using Bitcoin are basically a bunch of cosplay libertarians participating in a game of make-believe on the playgrounds of the nanny state.

Most Bitcoin holders, of course, don’t even see it as a currency. They’re in it to get rich, which is the one service that Bitcoin has managed to deliver.

There are reasons to worry about this, too. Bitcoin mining is an environmental disaster, requiring vast amounts of electricity — more than the nation of Finland.

Speculative frenzies divert resources and attention from productive investments.

And the bigger the bubble, the greater the damage when it pops.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/14/opinion/bitcoin-el-salvador.html

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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1024 » by step3profit » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:00 pm

Remember when Paul Krugman told us that the internet would have the same economic value is a fax machine? Those were the days.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1025 » by sidney lanier » Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:56 pm

step3profit wrote:Remember when Paul Krugman told us that the internet would have the same economic value is a fax machine? Those were the days.


Poor Paul Krugman. For a smart guy and one of my favorite opinion writers, his whiffs are big whiffs. Not just the fax machine thing, but his predictions about the market and world economy if Trump won were spectacularly wrong.

It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (Which by the way, was not said by Yogi Berra, or Niels Bohr, or Mark Twain. See here.) But I think skepticism about crypto is likely to be as accurate as skepticism about death rays and flying cars. We might see flying cars someday, but for now it's George Jetson and nobody else, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1026 » by Worm Guts » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:14 pm

sidney lanier wrote:
step3profit wrote:Remember when Paul Krugman told us that the internet would have the same economic value is a fax machine? Those were the days.


Poor Paul Krugman. For a smart guy and one of my favorite opinion writers, his whiffs are big whiffs. Not just the fax machine thing, but his predictions about the market and world economy if Trump won were spectacularly wrong.

It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (Which by the way, was not said by Yogi Berra, or Niels Bohr, or Mark Twain. See here.) But I think skepticism about crypto is likely to be as accurate as skepticism about death rays and flying cars. We might see flying cars someday, but for now it's George Jetson and nobody else, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.


I think it's already a little late to compare crypto to death rays and flying cars, crypto has already made it. I'm sure it will go away someday, everything does, but it's already had a significant impact.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1027 » by sidney lanier » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:03 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
sidney lanier wrote:
step3profit wrote:Remember when Paul Krugman told us that the internet would have the same economic value is a fax machine? Those were the days.


Poor Paul Krugman. For a smart guy and one of my favorite opinion writers, his whiffs are big whiffs. Not just the fax machine thing, but his predictions about the market and world economy if Trump won were spectacularly wrong.

It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (Which by the way, was not said by Yogi Berra, or Niels Bohr, or Mark Twain. See here.) But I think skepticism about crypto is likely to be as accurate as skepticism about death rays and flying cars. We might see flying cars someday, but for now it's George Jetson and nobody else, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.


I think it's already a little late to compare crypto to death rays and flying cars, crypto has already made it. I'm sure it will go away someday, everything does, but it's already had a significant impact.


As a speculative investment, that's true, but there is no utility. At least George Jetson got a ride to work. As the author of that op-ed put it...

Unfortunately, it doesn’t work. Some products become popular because they’re useful. Bitcoin is popular despite being mostly useless. Its success rests on the simple fact that the value of a Bitcoin has increased dramatically since its introduction in 2009, making some people rich and inspiring others to hope they can ride the rocket, too.

It’s not really a virtual currency at all. It’s virtual gold, a vehicle for speculative investment made possible by some interesting technical innovations. It’s the absurd apotheosis of our financialized economy, an asset unmoored from any productive purpose. In the beginning were bonds and then synthetic bonds and then Bitcoin.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1028 » by glenn » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:26 pm

Almost nine years ago I was out of state facilitating a training class. There was one guy in the class who was dumb as a rock and couldn't grasp any of the material. He also wouldn't stop talking about bitcoin; every break he would go on and on about it to me while I stared back with a blank face, and during training he would be researching bitcoin sites instead of participating. I bet he's rich as **** right now. I hope he is, honestly.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1029 » by th87 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:17 pm

sidney lanier wrote:As a natural skeptic I've long been a fan of Bitcoin critiques that point out the obvious: that so far there is no there there. But this op-ed in today's New York Times is the best I've seen. I'll quote it almost in full since it's behind a paywall (that no one ever used Bitcoin to take down).

Bitcoin Cosplay Is Getting Real

It’s been a good month for Bitcoin believers. The currency of the future — or is it the future of currency? — became legal tender in El Salvador.

Some might dismiss as a publicity stunt the embrace of a digital currency by a country where only a third of the population has internet access. Some Salvadorans took to the streets to protest. But let’s not minimize this moment. Esperanto, the language of the future, never managed to become an official language in any country.

Bitcoin, for the uninitiated, is a technology that purports to solve a host of problems with old-fashioned national currencies. It is designed to safeguard wealth against the depredations of inflation, public authorities and financial intermediaries.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t work. Some products become popular because they’re useful. Bitcoin is popular despite being mostly useless. Its success rests on the simple fact that the value of a Bitcoin has increased dramatically since its introduction in 2009, making some people rich and inspiring others to hope they can ride the rocket, too.

It’s not really a virtual currency at all. It’s virtual gold, a vehicle for speculative investment made possible by some interesting technical innovations. It’s the absurd apotheosis of our financialized economy, an asset unmoored from any productive purpose. In the beginning were bonds and then synthetic bonds and then Bitcoin.

...

Virtual currencies, much like pickup trucks, are marketed for off-road use. But the reality is that the vast majority of users choose to stay on the streets and highways.

It’s possible, but hardly evident, that this new infrastructure will improve upon the existing financial system — for example, by making it cheaper to move money across borders. But that hasn’t happened yet. For now, the people using Bitcoin are basically a bunch of cosplay libertarians participating in a game of make-believe on the playgrounds of the nanny state.

Most Bitcoin holders, of course, don’t even see it as a currency. They’re in it to get rich, which is the one service that Bitcoin has managed to deliver.

There are reasons to worry about this, too. Bitcoin mining is an environmental disaster, requiring vast amounts of electricity — more than the nation of Finland.

Speculative frenzies divert resources and attention from productive investments.

And the bigger the bubble, the greater the damage when it pops.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/14/opinion/bitcoin-el-salvador.html



But...isn't all this true of all fiat currency? The value is what people give it. And if it reaches close to full adoption as a store of wealth, then this could be the unit against which all other value is judged.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1030 » by sidney lanier » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:31 pm

th87 wrote:But...isn't all this true of all fiat currency? The value is what people give it. And if it reaches close to full adoption as a store of wealth, then this could be the unit against which all other value is judged.


I guess that's true, but only to the extent that you lack confidence in central banks and, by extension, governments in general. The irony with crypto, as the NYT writer pointed out, is that it's not a currency at all -- it's a speculative vehicle, like gold, with imputed value. Now maybe we crucify mankind on a cross of gold again, to paraphrase William Jennings Bryan, but this time the cross is self-limiting and too contrived to be adoptable or effective in my opinion.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1031 » by HaroldinGMinor » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:36 pm

There is utility in the technology around crypto (blockchain, smart contracts). That is here to stay.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1032 » by sidney lanier » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:54 pm

HaroldinGMinor wrote:There is utility in the technology around crypto (blockchain, smart contracts). That is here to stay.


There probably will be eventually, but so far, at least when it comes to blockchain, it seems like a solution in search of a problem. The big boys like IBM ( https://www.ibm.com/blockchain ) have a few unconvincing use cases, and the true believers gush over next to nothing ( https://computerrock.com/en/blog/blockchain-in-action-16-inspirational-examples ).

Maybe that's always the way on the cusp of something revolutionary. It's certainly always the way for the many similar failures lying on the side of the road to technology nirvana.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1033 » by HaroldinGMinor » Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:49 pm

sidney lanier wrote:
HaroldinGMinor wrote:There is utility in the technology around crypto (blockchain, smart contracts). That is here to stay.


There probably will be eventually, but so far, at least when it comes to blockchain, it seems like a solution in search of a problem. The big boys like IBM ( https://www.ibm.com/blockchain ) have a few unconvincing use cases, and the true believers gush over next to nothing ( https://computerrock.com/en/blog/blockchain-in-action-16-inspirational-examples ).

Maybe that's always the way on the cusp of something revolutionary. It's certainly always the way for the many similar failures lying on the side of the road to technology nirvana.


Microsoft - https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/azure-confidential-ledger/#features
Google - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2021/09/14/google-takes-giant-step-to-powering-web-3-with-dapper-labs-nft-deal/?sh=497497d039ca
Amazon - https://aws.amazon.com/managed-blockchain/
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1034 » by sidney lanier » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:03 pm

I admit to being a near-total ignoramus when it comes to blockchain, but the religious fervor of adherents of both cryptocurriences and the enabling technology makes me a little skeptical. It's like the 1984 Macintosh commercial about personal computing as liberation from Big Brother, the Sun Microsystems client-server "the network is the computer" stuff as liberation from the mainframe, and the early Apple HyperCard stuff all on steroids and all tinged with 21st-century angst.

There's a crypto piece in today's NYT that you will like. To me it just illustrates the religious fervor:

How Bitcoin Can Immunize America From Cancel Culture

Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies can free ordinary Americans from the financial and psychological discipline and punishment at the core of this system of control. But this gift will disappear if policymakers and legislators, beginning at the state level, don’t firmly establish regulatory and statutory impediments to the combined efforts of Washington, Wall Street and Silicon Valley to make cryptocurrency just another cog in the system they control.

States need to become broad legal sanctuaries for cryptocurrency. The use of digital technology to refound America as a soft social credit system can be stopped only by placing digital power in the hands of the people. For generations, our military and intelligence agencies have progressively organized America’s technological advancement around unaccountable and extralegal social control. Our dependence on this system for future innovation exacts an unbearable price on our freedom and our flourishing.

Antitrust action against behemoth firms like Google and Amazon is wise and just, but doesn’t return digital agency to regular citizens and enshrine it into law. The fast-emerging social credit system erases the line between private and public; Americans need Bitcoin and the like in order to take back their destinies in the digital world instead of entrusting it to more private or public sector overlords.

The critics have had a field day with cryptocurrency, and, at its worst, it earns the caricatures. But this is because, like all tools, it can be turned against its best use. For the architects of the social credit system, it’s essential that the amount of new crypto mined is sharply limited, that crypto transactions are heavily monitored and capped, and all forms of crypto are incorporated into the single regulatory and investment environment controlled by Washington, Wall Street and Silicon Valley.

Americans need just the opposite: the right to produce and buy computers powerful enough to mine Bitcoin and build data centers; the right to use and move cryptocurrency free from invasive monitoring, reporting requirements and arbitrary restrictions; and the right to freely choose to use cryptocurrency as true digital currencies among themselves. Federal laws to this effect would be ideal, but in the current hostile environment, the urgent place to begin is at the state level.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/opinion/cryptocurrency-americans-free.html
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1035 » by vital_signs » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:39 pm

My Matterport pick is finally paying off, in a peasants definition. 151 shares at 14.12, I'll take the gains.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1036 » by BUCKnation » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:30 pm

The inherent issue with crypto is the volatility. I'm pro the tech behind crypto but using it as a payment system still throws me off. Like imagine buying a couple of pizzas with one bitcoin 10 years ago and now seeing that's its 50k... Even in the short term with increments in the 10's. Now obviously it can swing the other way, but I wouldn't make that bet.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1037 » by jschligs » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 am

BUCKnation wrote:The inherent issue with crypto is the volatility. I'm pro the tech behind crypto but using it as a payment system still throws me off. Like imagine buying a couple of pizzas with one bitcoin 10 years ago and now seeing that's its 50k... Even in the short term with increments in the 10's. Now obviously it can swing the other way, but I wouldn't make that bet.


I bought 2 marijuana seeds off silk road in 09 for $50 in BTC. It'd be worth something like $200 million right now. I was never intending to invest, but part of me wishes I forgot I had it and became rich.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1038 » by th87 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:35 am

sidney lanier wrote:
th87 wrote:But...isn't all this true of all fiat currency? The value is what people give it. And if it reaches close to full adoption as a store of wealth, then this could be the unit against which all other value is judged.


I guess that's true, but only to the extent that you lack confidence in central banks and, by extension, governments in general. The irony with crypto, as the NYT writer pointed out, is that it's not a currency at all -- it's a speculative vehicle, like gold, with imputed value. Now maybe we crucify mankind on a cross of gold again, to paraphrase William Jennings Bryan, but this time the cross is self-limiting and too contrived to be adoptable or effective in my opinion.


Right, investments in bitcoin are thought to be a hedge against inflation. Just like gold, but far more fungible. I don't see it being a way to conduct transactions though - it'd be a place for the bold (maybe reckless) to park their money, and then convert it to something else when needed for purchases.
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1039 » by MickeyDavis » Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:08 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:FCEL got a nice bump this morning after reporting earnings. Puts me in the black.

My only investment in the black this week but overall I've only made about 4% on it .
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Re: OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto 

Post#1040 » by Stannis » Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:29 pm

I think the safest thing to do is allocate like 5 to 10% of your portfolio to Crypto, specifically BTC and and ETH. I think it's a bigger risk not to have any exposure.

In my opinion, the big risk with Crypto is if you are overinvested, overleveraged, and are trading ****. But you can honestly say the same things about stocks. People can be overinvested, overleveraged, and trading penny stocks, spacs, or WSB stocks.
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