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Quarter-season analysis

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KidA24
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Quarter-season analysis 

Post#1 » by KidA24 » Mon Feb 1, 2021 3:16 pm

I was bored this morning and applying for jobs is making me go crazy so I wanted to dive into this a little bit.

I decided to pick through some lineup data at stats.nba.com

I am just going to note things I find interesting:

1) The starting lineup is not world-beaters so far this season.

Last year the starting 5 had a net rating of 18.9, this year that number is 7.0.

2) 3-man lineup data from here

  • Small Sample Size Warning: Thanasis, Patty C and DDV have played 12 minutes together, they have an ORTG of 138.5 and a DRTG of 74.1 for a net of 64.4. Clearly they should be in the starting lineup. I filtered out lineups that have less than 24 minutes for that reason
  • The "Big Three" have a net rating of just 9.2,(113/104) last year that was twice as high, 18.9. (113/94). The defense being the difference.
  • In those 3-man lineups, Forbes is in 3 of the top 9 in net rating. Lopez is in 3 of the top 5.
  • Sorting by minutes, the first net-negative 3-man lineup in minutes played is Giannis, JRue and Forbes. For some reason that trio has been awful in their 76 minutes together (-13.6)
  • Next up is Augustin, Thanasis and Portis who have somehow logged 75 minutes together at -8.8.
  • The 4 of the worst 5 of these 3-man lineups contain Portis and Forbes, suggesting that maybe they shouldn't play together. 2-man lineups back this up. They have by far the most minutes on the negative side of things. Second most is Holiday and Forbes.
  • There are 19 3-man lineups over 24 minutes that are negative net ratings, player tallies: Lopez-4, Giannis-2, Middleton-4, Holiday-8, DDV-3, Thanasis-5, Augustin-8, Forbes-13, Portis-8, PattyC-2

2-man lineup data, over 40 minutes together:
  • 7 of the 2-man lineups are negative. Only 5 players are in those 2 man lineups: Augustin, Thanasis, Forbes, Holiday and Portis. (The bench is a problem)
  • PattyC and DDV are +27 in 108 minutes together, topping the list. Patty C is in each one of the top 5 two man lineups.
  • Giannis and DJA have been +15 together on the floor this year.
  • Last years team had 30 different two man lineups over +10 who played over 160 minutes together. This season only has 13 (in 40 minute threshold)

Just reading through the data with an open mind it seems really obvious that

1) Brook & Patty C are not the problem
2) Holiday has struggled thus far
3) If the starting 5 is going to be of championship caliber, they need to get their **** together
Amos Barshad: "So you got a job, a place to live, a license? What’s left?"

Giannis: “Nothing. Just get a ring now.”

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