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PG Knicks: Bryn Curry

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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#221 » by DingleJerry » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:50 am

ShootingtheJ wrote:
-Jragon- wrote:
ShootingtheJ wrote:

Have you realized that the group you've been arguing with are myself, plus all the smartest posters here?

No need to respond, your act is years from becoming entertaining the way David Dunn's has become. However, I beg of you to simply ponder why arbitrary advanced stats constantly conspire against you?


How entertaining that you call yourself the smartest. All us dummies better just wait for you to post your hyper advanced plus minus algorithms that show on nighttime games 10 days before a full moon Donte is a top 15 or 20 shooting guard although noone outside of Milwaukee agrees. Thanks for your guidance oh smart ones.


My poor friend, read it again. I literally mention myself separately from the people I mention as intelligent.


Haha,I will take this compliment :lol:
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#222 » by -Jragon- » Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:03 am

DingleJerry wrote:
ShootingtheJ wrote:
-Jragon- wrote:
How entertaining that you call yourself the smartest. All us dummies better just wait for you to post your hyper advanced plus minus algorithms that show on nighttime games 10 days before a full moon Donte is a top 15 or 20 shooting guard although noone outside of Milwaukee agrees. Thanks for your guidance oh smart ones.


My poor friend, read it again. I literally mention myself separately from the people I mention as intelligent.


Haha,I will take this compliment :lol:


If you are the smartest poster, and you told me Donte can start at SG for any contenders, then I feel pretty good about posting my opinion.

I didn't even know really how to respond since even in the East we have Herro, Jalylen, FVV, Harden or Kyrie... still didnt even get to Paul George, Mitchell, Booker, Dipo, Beal and plenty more Lavine, Ingles, Lamb, Shai, Lavert McCollum... I mean he isn't even in the same stratosphere as most of these no matter how much of a genius you guys are you'd still have to give DDV and 2 or 3 firsts that we don't have to get any of these dudes.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#223 » by SickMother » Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:14 am

-Jragon- wrote:I mean, he's 60th or 70th best in 3point % on low usage in the league so let's not pretend that's good


Donte averages 5.0 three point attempts per game, which is 70th in the league. I'd say that's above average on attempts.

Of the 70 players who average at least 5.0 three attempts per game, 36 shoot a lower percentage than Donte's current .382.

Of the 75 players with a higher 3P% than DDV's .382, 36 of them have fewer than 5.0 attempts per game.

Add it all up & Donte has made the 52nd most threes so far.

Of the 51 players who have made more threes than DDV, 19 are listed as shooting guards by B-Ref.

Real Plus Minus has Donte ranked 22nd among SG, by VORP he is 19th among SG, by BPM he is 16th among SG.

There isn't much of an objective case to be made that DDV isn't a top 30 SG.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#224 » by -Jragon- » Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:37 am

SickMother wrote:
-Jragon- wrote:I mean, he's 60th or 70th best in 3point % on low usage in the league so let's not pretend that's good


Donte averages 5.0 three point attempts per game, which is 70th in the league. I'd say that's above average on attempts.

Of the 70 players who average at least 5.0 three attempts per game, 36 shoot a lower percentage than Donte's current .382.

Of the 75 players with a higher 3P% than DDV's .382, 36 of them have fewer than 5.0 attempts per game.

Add it all up & Donte has made the 52nd most threes so far.

Of the 51 players who have made more threes than DDV, 19 are listed as shooting guards by B-Ref.

Real Plus Minus has Donte ranked 22nd among SG, by VORP he is 19th among SG, by BPM he is 16th among SG.

There isn't much of an objective case to be made that DDV isn't a top 30 SG.


This is the smartest post I've seen. Maybe there are some that would argue if he's one of the 5 worst, 10 worst or 15 worst starting shooting guards. Let's also keep in mind you cherry picked a few stats that account for team play can even replacement play can be swayed. Having a superstar that commands attention playing next to you improves a lot of team stats. Donte doesn't have to do as much to get his shot off as a SG would that doesn't play with an MVP contender with the gravity of Giannis. If you look at individual stats there are very few that have him top 30. If anyone outside of Milwaukee has him ranked higher I'd like to see it. All these team points while on court feels like Giannis effect stuff. I just watched McCollum take the Maverick's soul. I cant even imagine Donte doing it. This genius fanboy club needs to wait til next year. Donte didn't get a real off season which is huge for players this early in development.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#225 » by FrieAaron » Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:11 am

Since his ridiculously hot 6 game start, Donte is shooting 33.7% from three. Obviously he does a lot of things well, but it's still a bit too early for either side to be claiming victory on the argument of whether or not he's a good shooter. In the last 34 he's taken the 2nd most threes on the team and shooting 10th best. I'd love it if we could figure out a way to give Khris some of his offensive confidence, though.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#226 » by emunney » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:12 pm

FrieAaron wrote:Since his ridiculously hot 6 game start, Donte is shooting 33.7% from three. Obviously he does a lot of things well, but it's still a bit too early for either side to be claiming victory on the argument of whether or not he's a good shooter. In the last 34 he's taken the 2nd most threes on the team and shooting 10th best. I'd love it if we could figure out a way to give Khris some of his offensive confidence, though.


If you take out his 2nd six games he's shooting 43% from 3.

Why are we doing this?
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#227 » by LuessiT » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:22 pm

emunney wrote:
FrieAaron wrote:Since his ridiculously hot 6 game start, Donte is shooting 33.7% from three. Obviously he does a lot of things well, but it's still a bit too early for either side to be claiming victory on the argument of whether or not he's a good shooter. In the last 34 he's taken the 2nd most threes on the team and shooting 10th best. I'd love it if we could figure out a way to give Khris some of his offensive confidence, though.


If you take out his 2nd six games he's shooting 43% from 3.

Why are we doing this?


Thanks. This is so silly.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#228 » by coolhandluke121 » Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:25 pm

-Jragon- wrote:
SickMother wrote:
-Jragon- wrote:I mean, he's 60th or 70th best in 3point % on low usage in the league so let's not pretend that's good


Donte averages 5.0 three point attempts per game, which is 70th in the league. I'd say that's above average on attempts.

Of the 70 players who average at least 5.0 three attempts per game, 36 shoot a lower percentage than Donte's current .382.

Of the 75 players with a higher 3P% than DDV's .382, 36 of them have fewer than 5.0 attempts per game.

Add it all up & Donte has made the 52nd most threes so far.

Of the 51 players who have made more threes than DDV, 19 are listed as shooting guards by B-Ref.

Real Plus Minus has Donte ranked 22nd among SG, by VORP he is 19th among SG, by BPM he is 16th among SG.

There isn't much of an objective case to be made that DDV isn't a top 30 SG.


This is the smartest post I've seen.



Real plus-minus has him 7th among SG's, not 22nd... and those other stats appear to be from basketball-reference, which doesn't use actual data about how the team fares when a player is on the floor but rather just makes a bunch of stupid assumptions about how much a player's box score stats contribute to winning - so if that stat provider is also where the "22nd in RPM among SG's" stat comes from, it's utter trash. I mean PJ Tucker has not had a positive BMP for a full season since 2015 FFS. Incidentally, that was also the last time his VORP was higher than 1.0; do you even know off the top of your head whom he was playing for at the time?

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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#229 » by FrieAaron » Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:55 pm

emunney wrote:
FrieAaron wrote:Since his ridiculously hot 6 game start, Donte is shooting 33.7% from three. Obviously he does a lot of things well, but it's still a bit too early for either side to be claiming victory on the argument of whether or not he's a good shooter. In the last 34 he's taken the 2nd most threes on the team and shooting 10th best. I'd love it if we could figure out a way to give Khris some of his offensive confidence, though.


If you take out his 2nd six games he's shooting 43% from 3.

Why are we doing this?


Because one is a six game sample size where he shot 60% from three. And the other is a 34 consecutive game sample size where he's shooting exactly what he shot last year. Maybe everyone saying he is now a good shooter is correct and he won't keep going down closer to so far what has been his career average, but I'm not counting those chickens quite yet.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#230 » by DingleJerry » Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:44 pm

-Jragon- wrote:
DingleJerry wrote:
ShootingtheJ wrote:
My poor friend, read it again. I literally mention myself separately from the people I mention as intelligent.


Haha,I will take this compliment :lol:


If you are the smartest poster, and you told me Donte can start at SG for any contenders, then I feel pretty good about posting my opinion.

I didn't even know really how to respond since even in the East we have Herro, Jalylen, FVV, Harden or Kyrie... still didnt even get to Paul George, Mitchell, Booker, Dipo, Beal and plenty more Lavine, Ingles, Lamb, Shai, Lavert McCollum... I mean he isn't even in the same stratosphere as most of these no matter how much of a genius you guys are you'd still have to give DDV and 2 or 3 firsts that we don't have to get any of these dudes.


I never said anything of this nature that he's better than any of these guys, or any comments on your preseason and fantasy lists you were trying to make in recent posts.

To the later posts on taking out this or that sample from 3 and it being early to take victory laps. Yea, generally tat's right. That's why in all these I've said 'so far'. We needed him to take a leap from low 30s to upper 30s. So far, he's done it. Still has a long way to go to prove it or trust it. If he drops and finishes back in the 33-35 area the topic this dude has been hammering on becomes more correct. So far though, it's not.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#231 » by ShootingtheJ » Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:48 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
-Jragon- wrote:
SickMother wrote:
Donte averages 5.0 three point attempts per game, which is 70th in the league. I'd say that's above average on attempts.

Of the 70 players who average at least 5.0 three attempts per game, 36 shoot a lower percentage than Donte's current .382.

Of the 75 players with a higher 3P% than DDV's .382, 36 of them have fewer than 5.0 attempts per game.

Add it all up & Donte has made the 52nd most threes so far.

Of the 51 players who have made more threes than DDV, 19 are listed as shooting guards by B-Ref.

Real Plus Minus has Donte ranked 22nd among SG, by VORP he is 19th among SG, by BPM he is 16th among SG.

There isn't much of an objective case to be made that DDV isn't a top 30 SG.


This is the smartest post I've seen.



Real plus-minus has him 7th among SG's, not 22nd... and those other stats appear to be from basketball-reference, which doesn't use actual data about how the team fares when a player is on the floor but rather just makes a bunch of stupid assumptions about how much a player's box score stats contribute to winning - so if that stat provider is also where the "22nd in RPM among SG's" stat comes from, it's utter trash. I mean PJ Tucker has not had a positive BMP for a full season since 2015 FFS. Incidentally, that was also the last time his VORP was higher than 1.0; do you even know off the top of your head whom he was playing for at the time?

You have a chance to learn something here. Don't waste it.


How dare you use VORP! That's my thing!

Since you brought it up, I guess I should mention that Tucker was just .1 VORP last year. When people mention him being rejuvenated from the trade, I hope they remember that Tucker hasn't been juvenated since 2019.

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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#232 » by coolhandluke121 » Sat Mar 20, 2021 8:18 pm

ShootingtheJ wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
-Jragon- wrote:
This is the smartest post I've seen.



Real plus-minus has him 7th among SG's, not 22nd... and those other stats appear to be from basketball-reference, which doesn't use actual data about how the team fares when a player is on the floor but rather just makes a bunch of stupid assumptions about how much a player's box score stats contribute to winning - so if that stat provider is also where the "22nd in RPM among SG's" stat comes from, it's utter trash. I mean PJ Tucker has not had a positive BMP for a full season since 2015 FFS. Incidentally, that was also the last time his VORP was higher than 1.0; do you even know off the top of your head whom he was playing for at the time?

You have a chance to learn something here. Don't waste it.


How dare you use VORP! That's my thing!

Since you brought it up, I guess I should mention that Tucker was just .1 VORP last year. When people mention him being rejuvenated from the trade, I hope they remember that Tucker hasn't been juvenated since 2019.

I can't wait to hang the "We Avoided The Luxury Tax" banner. Big moment.


I wasn't actually using VORP per se. I was explaining why it is so inaccurate compared to advanced stats based on actual lineup data, such as ESPN's RPM - although even the latter has a lot of trouble capturing the value of a guy like PJ with almost no counting stats to speak of. Tucker hasn't had a VORP over 1.0 since 2015 simply because VORP does nothing to capture all the things he does to help his team win that don't show up in the box score, nor does it even attempt to. Basketball reference has several advanced stats but as far as I know all of them are just based on a player's box scores. They do nothing to account for the fact than many players help the lineups they're in despite not putting up impressive box scores, nor do they account for the fact that many players aren't actually helping the lineups they're in at all despite some nice counting stats.

I definitely agree that Tucker is on a steep decline and probably has been for a while. I'm not sure he was ever as good as DDV is now, but someone was using DDV's bbref advanced stats and I wanted to take that opportunity to try to explain why they're so dubious. DDV's RPM on ESPN is much more accurate because it reflects the fact that Bucks' lineups benefit pretty dramatically by playing him. Even ESPN's RPM is a little biased against glue guys who aren't putting up big counting stats, but it's not nearly as biased as bbref.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#233 » by ShootingtheJ » Sat Mar 20, 2021 8:25 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
ShootingtheJ wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:

Real plus-minus has him 7th among SG's, not 22nd... and those other stats appear to be from basketball-reference, which doesn't use actual data about how the team fares when a player is on the floor but rather just makes a bunch of stupid assumptions about how much a player's box score stats contribute to winning - so if that stat provider is also where the "22nd in RPM among SG's" stat comes from, it's utter trash. I mean PJ Tucker has not had a positive BMP for a full season since 2015 FFS. Incidentally, that was also the last time his VORP was higher than 1.0; do you even know off the top of your head whom he was playing for at the time?

You have a chance to learn something here. Don't waste it.


How dare you use VORP! That's my thing!

Since you brought it up, I guess I should mention that Tucker was just .1 VORP last year. When people mention him being rejuvenated from the trade, I hope they remember that Tucker hasn't been juvenated since 2019.

I can't wait to hang the "We Avoided The Luxury Tax" banner. Big moment.


I wasn't actually using VORP per se. I was explaining why it is so inaccurate compared to advanced stats based on actual lineup data, such as ESPN's RPM - although even the latter has a lot of trouble capturing the value of a guy like PJ with almost no counting stats to speak of. Tucker hasn't had a VORP over 1.0 since 2015 simply because VORP does nothing to capture all the things he does to help his team win that don't show up in the box score, nor does it even attempt to. Basketball reference has several advanced stats but as far as I know all of them are just based on a player's box scores. They do nothing to account for the fact than many players help the lineups they're in despite not putting up impressive box scores, nor do they account for the fact that many players aren't actually helping the lineups they're in at all despite some nice counting stats.

I definitely agree that Tucker is on a steep decline and probably has been for a while. I'm not sure he was ever as good as DDV is now, but someone was using DDV's bbref advanced stats and I wanted to take that opportunity to try to explain why they're so dubious. DDV's RPM on ESPN is much more accurate because it reflects the fact that Bucks' lineups benefit pretty dramatically by playing him. Even ESPN's RPM is a little biased against glue guys who aren't putting up big counting stats, but it's not nearly as biased as bbref.


Tucker was just .1 VORP a year ago, and also had a negative ESPN RPM. Both seemed to capture the same thing, Tucker sucked already last year.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#234 » by coolhandluke121 » Sat Mar 20, 2021 8:51 pm

ShootingtheJ wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
ShootingtheJ wrote:
How dare you use VORP! That's my thing!

Since you brought it up, I guess I should mention that Tucker was just .1 VORP last year. When people mention him being rejuvenated from the trade, I hope they remember that Tucker hasn't been juvenated since 2019.

I can't wait to hang the "We Avoided The Luxury Tax" banner. Big moment.


I wasn't actually using VORP per se. I was explaining why it is so inaccurate compared to advanced stats based on actual lineup data, such as ESPN's RPM - although even the latter has a lot of trouble capturing the value of a guy like PJ with almost no counting stats to speak of. Tucker hasn't had a VORP over 1.0 since 2015 simply because VORP does nothing to capture all the things he does to help his team win that don't show up in the box score, nor does it even attempt to. Basketball reference has several advanced stats but as far as I know all of them are just based on a player's box scores. They do nothing to account for the fact than many players help the lineups they're in despite not putting up impressive box scores, nor do they account for the fact that many players aren't actually helping the lineups they're in at all despite some nice counting stats.

I definitely agree that Tucker is on a steep decline and probably has been for a while. I'm not sure he was ever as good as DDV is now, but someone was using DDV's bbref advanced stats and I wanted to take that opportunity to try to explain why they're so dubious. DDV's RPM on ESPN is much more accurate because it reflects the fact that Bucks' lineups benefit pretty dramatically by playing him. Even ESPN's RPM is a little biased against glue guys who aren't putting up big counting stats, but it's not nearly as biased as bbref.


Tucker was just .1 VORP a year ago, and also had a negative ESPN RPM. Both seemed to capture the same thing, Tucker sucked already last year.


I agree. However, neither stat is quite capable of doing justice to someone who has such terrible box score stats like PJ, though ESPN's RPM theoretically has a little more in their model to account for his contributions. It won't shock me at all if he helps the Bucks despite terrible stats, kind of like Darvin Ham once did, but I'm not counting on it. But this is definitely about the financial implications. If they use the TPE or sign a few good buyout guys, this is a good trade, but for now it's a flat C.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#235 » by emunney » Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:06 pm

FrieAaron wrote:
emunney wrote:
FrieAaron wrote:Since his ridiculously hot 6 game start, Donte is shooting 33.7% from three. Obviously he does a lot of things well, but it's still a bit too early for either side to be claiming victory on the argument of whether or not he's a good shooter. In the last 34 he's taken the 2nd most threes on the team and shooting 10th best. I'd love it if we could figure out a way to give Khris some of his offensive confidence, though.


If you take out his 2nd six games he's shooting 43% from 3.

Why are we doing this?


Because one is a six game sample size where he shot 60% from three. And the other is a 34 consecutive game sample size where he's shooting exactly what he shot last year. Maybe everyone saying he is now a good shooter is correct and he won't keep going down closer to so far what has been his career average, but I'm not counting those chickens quite yet.


No, of you're going to omit made shots to suggest something, you have to justify why those shots should be omitted. What is special about those shots? What makes them different? Did he get hurt? Did the wizard's spell wear off? Why won't he have another 6 game stretch just like it? Why should they be excluded?
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#236 » by FrieAaron » Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:12 pm

emunney wrote:No, of you're going to omit made shots to suggest something, you have to justify why those shots should be omitted. What is special about those shots? What makes them different? Did he get hurt? Did the wizard's spell wear off? Why won't he have another 6 game stretch just like it? Why should they be excluded?


You're right, it's completely possible that he just happened to have a 6 game stretch to start the season where he shot 19/30 as part of the normal variance any player has and is now a 38-39% 3 point shooter and we're set. I never said that wasn't the case, only that at this point I'm not completely sold on that.

If you look at his game logs, whether there's an actual reason for it or not, that week does look like an outlier. He shot 75%, 60%, 50%, 83%, 43% and 75%. He shot so well those 6 games that he could afford to shoot 33.7% since then and still be called a good shooter. That in itself is impressive.

Now, of course those games would be an outlier for anyone - we all knew when it was happening that no one was going to maintain that kind of shooting. But in my mind it's still an open question - is he in the middle of reverting to the means and he'll end up closer to a 33% shooter than a 40% shooter or has his shot actually improved this year? Obviously I hope it's the latter, but I'm not as sure of it as some people seem to be.

Note, I'm not saying he's not a valuable player or even shouldn't start or anything like that, only that I'm not sold that he's the player we want having the second highest 3 point attempt rate on the team behind Forbes.
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Re: PG Knicks: Bryn Curry 

Post#237 » by coolhandluke121 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 2:01 am

Probably every single x% shooter in NBA history is actually an (x-3)% shooter who had one (x+20)% stretch at some point each year to buoy his average. That's why they call it an average.

I actually think there was something different about that stretch and it was releasing the ball slightly earlier and getting more gentle arc instead of waiting until the top of his jump when he has lost the upward velocity from leaping and has to kind of fling/hurl it with the elbow and wrist to make up the difference. Keep drilling him with a shot doctor until it sticks and he could be very good at shooting because he's coordinated, has great depth perception, and rarely misses badly.
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