Would a trade be better for both Bogut and the Bucks?
Posted: Fri Feb 1, 2008 5:24 am
As a lot of you will know I'm a big Bogut fan. I believe he is the future of this franchise and has the potential to be a monster in this league. I also believe this franchise should be building around him.
However
They are not. This team has been assembled with a clear view to being a 'run and gun' team, who freewheel offensively and rely on outscoring their opponents rather than stopping their opponents to win games. LK is trying to turn that around, but the simple fact of the matter is he doesn't have the cattle to run a half court game with any consistency, on either end of the floor. If we look at the core of this team sans Bogut we have -
Mo - A shooting guard in a pg's body, an excellent scoring threat but not naturally a 'pass first' pg which would really help Bogut, with a fairly low basketball iq and no defensive ability. A very poor 'post entry' passer, although does work the pick and roll well with Bogut.
Redd - A no conscience scorer, a guy not naturally suited to 'team first' play, a guy who is much more inclined to score himself than involve others purely because it's what he's best at. An average defender. A poor 'post entry' passer. Seems very reluctant to give up the reigns of what has been his team for a long time now, perhaps understandably.
Bobby - A guy who could be a piece added to suit Bogut's game, if he can get his game back on track after a long layoff. Probably the teams best 'post entry' passer.
CV - A no conscience scorer who's game is based on a principle not dissimilar to Redd's, without Redd's production or anything like his consistency. Could be a very effective piece on a team geared around Bogut if he learned that he's near unstoppable when he hits the rack instead of settling for jumpshots and focussed on his defence, but time is fast running out for him here, and LK seems to hate him.
Yi - Could be a very effective 1-2 punch with Bogut if his development continues as expected (hoped), however right now his production is a long way off that of an effective nba starter. It is conceivable that he won't be a consistent benefit to the team for another 2 years, which means a LOT of double teams for Bogut.
Bell - Possibly the best suited Buck to Bogut. A good 'post entry' passer, reasonably unselfish, solid defender, can knock down the open J off 'inside out' dishes consistently (provided the first half of this season was a one off). Problem is he's not a starter.
Des - A run and gun guy. Not suited to a Bogut based team.
Ivey - A good defender but very poor passer from the point.
So out of the 7 core guys, maybe 3 are suited to being on a team built around Bogut, 2 of them have had poor seasons to date and 1 is a rookie who's having a horror stretch. The problem is that there's no easy way to change the team personell to focus on Bogut, and there is absolutely no sign that they are even attempting to. With a guy like Jason Kidd on the market, if they were serious about this becoming an inside outside team revolving around Bogut they would be chasing him with everything they had, yet we haven't been mentioned as even a 'possible' suitor at any point yet.
With many on this board now suggesting we would be better focussing on playing the 'run and gun' style that this team is built for, I'm beginning to wonder whether
1) The bucks would indeed be better off doing this
and
2) Andrew Bogut would be better off in a system which would give more than 'lip service' to the idea of building around a good young center. I strongly believe he can be an allstar in such a system.
If we revert to the Stotts inspired run and gun as many are asking for Bogut can be effective in that system without doubt, but he will never reach anywhere near his offensive potential. He will become a guy who scores almost exclusively from passing in transition and put backs, and he is clearly capable of MUCH more than that. If we do that another thing will happen - Bogut will take his first opportunity to get the hell out of here.
So are we better off trading him now, rather than waiting around for the 2 or 3 trades necessary to gear this team around him, or for Mo to magically become a pass first defensive point guard and Redd to say 'No worries Drew, the teams yours', or indeed for the front office to grow a brain? There is no question we would get exceptional value for him, I would predict 15 teams in this league minimum would absolutely LOVE to have this guy on their books. LK in recent games has shown a weakening on his 'keep going to him even if he's struggling' stance, I'm wondering how long it will be until we are saying 'remember that month we went to bogut consistently how good he was?'
Very strong commitments have been made to both Mo and Redd in recent years, I can't see either of them getting shipped as much as I want to, and neither of them suit a team geared around Bogut without major changes to their games.
Whilst it will destroy me if Bogut is traded and could well be the final straw between myself and the Bucks, could it be what is best for both parties?
However
They are not. This team has been assembled with a clear view to being a 'run and gun' team, who freewheel offensively and rely on outscoring their opponents rather than stopping their opponents to win games. LK is trying to turn that around, but the simple fact of the matter is he doesn't have the cattle to run a half court game with any consistency, on either end of the floor. If we look at the core of this team sans Bogut we have -
Mo - A shooting guard in a pg's body, an excellent scoring threat but not naturally a 'pass first' pg which would really help Bogut, with a fairly low basketball iq and no defensive ability. A very poor 'post entry' passer, although does work the pick and roll well with Bogut.
Redd - A no conscience scorer, a guy not naturally suited to 'team first' play, a guy who is much more inclined to score himself than involve others purely because it's what he's best at. An average defender. A poor 'post entry' passer. Seems very reluctant to give up the reigns of what has been his team for a long time now, perhaps understandably.
Bobby - A guy who could be a piece added to suit Bogut's game, if he can get his game back on track after a long layoff. Probably the teams best 'post entry' passer.
CV - A no conscience scorer who's game is based on a principle not dissimilar to Redd's, without Redd's production or anything like his consistency. Could be a very effective piece on a team geared around Bogut if he learned that he's near unstoppable when he hits the rack instead of settling for jumpshots and focussed on his defence, but time is fast running out for him here, and LK seems to hate him.
Yi - Could be a very effective 1-2 punch with Bogut if his development continues as expected (hoped), however right now his production is a long way off that of an effective nba starter. It is conceivable that he won't be a consistent benefit to the team for another 2 years, which means a LOT of double teams for Bogut.
Bell - Possibly the best suited Buck to Bogut. A good 'post entry' passer, reasonably unselfish, solid defender, can knock down the open J off 'inside out' dishes consistently (provided the first half of this season was a one off). Problem is he's not a starter.
Des - A run and gun guy. Not suited to a Bogut based team.
Ivey - A good defender but very poor passer from the point.
So out of the 7 core guys, maybe 3 are suited to being on a team built around Bogut, 2 of them have had poor seasons to date and 1 is a rookie who's having a horror stretch. The problem is that there's no easy way to change the team personell to focus on Bogut, and there is absolutely no sign that they are even attempting to. With a guy like Jason Kidd on the market, if they were serious about this becoming an inside outside team revolving around Bogut they would be chasing him with everything they had, yet we haven't been mentioned as even a 'possible' suitor at any point yet.
With many on this board now suggesting we would be better focussing on playing the 'run and gun' style that this team is built for, I'm beginning to wonder whether
1) The bucks would indeed be better off doing this
and
2) Andrew Bogut would be better off in a system which would give more than 'lip service' to the idea of building around a good young center. I strongly believe he can be an allstar in such a system.
If we revert to the Stotts inspired run and gun as many are asking for Bogut can be effective in that system without doubt, but he will never reach anywhere near his offensive potential. He will become a guy who scores almost exclusively from passing in transition and put backs, and he is clearly capable of MUCH more than that. If we do that another thing will happen - Bogut will take his first opportunity to get the hell out of here.
So are we better off trading him now, rather than waiting around for the 2 or 3 trades necessary to gear this team around him, or for Mo to magically become a pass first defensive point guard and Redd to say 'No worries Drew, the teams yours', or indeed for the front office to grow a brain? There is no question we would get exceptional value for him, I would predict 15 teams in this league minimum would absolutely LOVE to have this guy on their books. LK in recent games has shown a weakening on his 'keep going to him even if he's struggling' stance, I'm wondering how long it will be until we are saying 'remember that month we went to bogut consistently how good he was?'
Very strong commitments have been made to both Mo and Redd in recent years, I can't see either of them getting shipped as much as I want to, and neither of them suit a team geared around Bogut without major changes to their games.
Whilst it will destroy me if Bogut is traded and could well be the final straw between myself and the Bucks, could it be what is best for both parties?