The Rookie Wall statistically disproven (USA Today)

Post #1 » by **paulpressey25** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:38 am

I didn't get a chance to post this two weeks ago when it first hit, but wanted to get it up here now.

It should be must reading for this board, especially analyzing the performance chart at the bottom of the story that has many players before and after the all-star break averages.

It is a pretty damn compelling case that we should be worried about Yi.....it would appear Adam Morrison is one of the few high lotto picks whose numbers declined after the all-star break. And of course Bogut is one of the other few guys whose game didn't take off as the season went on.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketba ... able_N.htm

europa · Post #2 » by **europa** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:41 am

I was going to post a question about this the other day and didn't get around to it. But given Yi's struggles I was wondering how many other top players suffered through serious declines as their rookie seasons went along. I find it troubling that Yi is playing so poorly. It's one thing to struggle, but he's pretty much useless on the court at this point. I still think he has the talent to be a good player in this league but his rookie season progression has been very troubling in my opinion.

BuckFan25226 · Post #3 » by **BuckFan25226** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:44 am

What concerns me about Yi more then anything is his hands. I've never seen a player get the ball knocked away more from the smallest bumps and swipes.

Post #4 » by **paulpressey25** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:48 am

We all know there are all-star players who didn't shine as rookies....but your odds of becoming an all-star without being a great rookie aren't that high.

I was shocked when looking at those totals and seeing the massive statistical improvement of guys like Melo, Hinrich, Ginobli.....

And even the other guys like Howard, Okafor, Paul all still improved a notch or two in the second half.

As you watch Al Thorton take off here in the second half of the season, you sense he might be an equivalent of a Caron Butler type and you wonder why Yi can't do the same.

I give Yi a semi-pass here because he's from a foreign country and had to play all those games last summer.....but this stretch finish is very troubling.

europa · Post #5 » by **europa** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:51 am

I posted a question a few weeks ago that I think is pertinent: How many great players didn't show some signs of greatness as a rookie? The two that come to mind are Dirk and Nash but that's all I can come up with. Maybe Billups too. Nearly every other great player showed signs of that greatness as a rookie. I think Yi has shown some good things at times but I haven't seen signs of greatness. Does that mean he can't reach that level? No. Dirk and Nash are certainly proof you can overcome weak starts to your career to become superstars. But I'm reluctant to predict greatness for Yi at the present time when he hasn't shown me an indication he has that type of potential.

Post #6 » by **paulpressey25** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:56 am

For me Yi had enough good games the first six weeks that I'm not ready to rule out him being an all-star. We forget how good he looked on both ends of the court.

But I will admit I've gotten a bit scared since one guy on here compared him to Channing Frye a month back. Frye did come out of the box so damn strong with that finesse shooting game and then hasn't really been heard from since February of his rookie season.

msiris · Post #7 » by **msiris** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 5:00 am

Its really hard to say. How many rookies played the whole year before? Yi looks very tired right now. That would explain why he is losing the ball a lot.
And it will not get any better , because of the summer games.

schweig · Post #8 » by **schweig** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 5:20 am

One other thing, by picking the top-5 ROY votegetters, we're not seeing too many comparable projects on there, Bargnani was the only name that really stuck out that way to me. But it's interesting to look at.

Is some of it mental, and if it is are we looking at a tough patch to fight through or something more like Jeff Grayer with a whole country on his back? Is there maybe any injury he's been trying to play through like Bogut? It would almost be a relief in a way if that were the case, unfortunately.

The only sure thing is that we saw this with Bogut and had to wonder aimlessly how much of a difference more specialized help could have made, and here we are again with some specific weaknesses in a prospect that are getting worse instead of better. These players already put in a ton of work and it is up to them to the biggest extent, but there are so many specialized things you can do now.

bucks59 · Post #9 » by **bucks59** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 6:10 am

Well, Yi has also played a ton of basketball, not just in the NBA but also in China. So there is just a good chance that he needs a break.

Post #10 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 1:04 pm

bucks59 wrote:Well, Yi has also played a ton of basketball, not just in the NBA but also in China. So there is just a good chance that he needs a break.

Yup and he won't be getting one this summer either.

GHOSTofSIKMA · Post #11 » by **GHOSTofSIKMA** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 2:13 pm

If we dont trade yi in the offseason to a larger market it will be a HUGE missed oppurtunity. He is best case a Bargnani type player. We have absolutely no use for that type of PF.

I have never seen a weaker finisher in all my years of watching NBA basketball. That is not something that can be taught really. How do you teach someone not to be terrible holding onto the ball.

How do teach somebody not to go up strong and be easily rejected by EVERYBODY within arms length?

I cant stand Yi and quite frankly blame much of this years problems on his distraction early on. Hes a sideshow.

LISTEN2JAZZ · Post #12 » by **LISTEN2JAZZ** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 2:41 pm

I strongly disagree with the notion sometimes presented here, that soon as he develops a little more strength, he will be a good finisher, a good rebounder, a good pass-catcher, etc. I've never seen something like that happen before where all sorts of skills needed just one simple event in order to be unlocked.

ffz2000 · Post #13 » by **ffz2000** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 4:08 pm

Bucks should just not take the option on Yi's contract so Yi would only be on a 2 year deal. Yeah that would be good for everyone. If yall can't trade him then its an expiring contract with upside. Hopefully it will land the bucks a SF or backup center.

As for Yi, he doesn't fit or understand this offense at all. At least the spurts im seeing from him during the bucks games, he's hustling and not playing half hearted. Hope he turns his game up a knotch when he goes back to china. Bucks offense is horribly unbalanced btw.

Newz · Post #14 » by **Newz** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 5:21 pm

I had high hopes for Yi... I used to hope he could become a Sheed/Dirk type of player, but it just doesn't seem realistic anymore by watching him play. He does have a lot of talent still and certainly could develop into a great player...

I am hoping he could become a Joe Smith type player when he was with the Bucks. Consistently hit open mid-range jumpers, play hard, solid defender and a good shot blocker while being a quality teammate... Just a really good role player.

Post #15 » by **floppymoose** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 6:24 pm

That report sucks. It doesn't indicate how many minutes the players got per game before and after the break.

A *lot* of rookies get more minutes later in their rookie season, as they learn the system, the league, improve strength, etc, and the coaching staff gains confidence in them.

And of course if they are getting more minutes in the second half they will put up more boxscore stats.

Post #16 » by **paulpressey25** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 7:32 pm

floppymoose wrote:That report sucks. It doesn't indicate how many minutes the players got per game before and after the break..

That is a fair critique......but in many cases a lot of those guys started to really earn their minutes with great play.....so rather than getting worse as the year progressed, they did get better.

Where we apply it here is with Yi...it's clear Yi isn't earning his way to more minutes right now....

Post #17 » by **floppymoose** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 9:15 pm

True. I should add that just because I think the report sucks, doesn't mean I disagree with the conclusion. I just like to use the words "sucks". :-D

emunney · Post #18 » by **emunney** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 9:31 pm

I don't know if there's a rookie wall or not, but I do think that Yi has seriously overtrained. There were reports earlier in the season that Yi was lifting weights on game days -- and the training staff was thrilled. I'm happy that he's got a work ethic, too, but you can't just lift weights and play professional basketball every day and expect to grow stronger. The human body needs rest to recuperate and rebuild itself. Yi looks skinnier now than he did to start the season. I think we need to shut him down.

Nowak008 · Post #19 » by **Nowak008** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 9:41 pm

emunney wrote:I don't know if there's a rookie wall or not, but I do think that Yi has seriously overtrained. There were reports earlier in the season that Yi was lifting weights on game days -- and the training staff was thrilled. I'm happy that he's got a work ethic, too, but you can't just lift weights and play professional basketball every day and expect to grow stronger. The human body needs rest to recuperate and rebuild itself. Yi looks skinnier now than he did to start the season. I think we need to shut him down.

or we could give him steriods. :nod:

Stopshere2 · Post #20 » by **Stopshere2** » Mon Mar 3, 2008 10:54 pm

paulpressey25 wrote: But I will admit I've gotten a bit scared since one guy on here compared him to Channing Frye a month back. Frye did come out of the box so damn strong with that finesse shooting game and then hasn't really been heard from since February of his rookie season.

It was me that made the Frye comparison although I did note Yi's superior athletic ability. Another similarity was Knicks fans claiming Larry Brown was the reason Frye was declining and spending more time on the bench. Some Bucks fans see it as the Chuck Brothers holding back Yi. Whatever the reasons, nothing has changed for me to drop the comparision of Yi and Frye in terms of career trajectory. I just hope it ain't so.

As for the rookie wall, I wonder if it affects international guys more? Homesickness plus tiredness from previous national team commitments must take some toll, especially on top of playing an average of every other day for 25 weeks of an NBA season.