RealGM

Ever since the Magloire heartbreak trade I've made an effort not to overvalue our players. With that said, I really am worried that trades that many of us are talking about as being realistic are anything but. I think we should reassess them in terms of our player's perceived values and not so much by an assumed desperation by these teams to take on our guys despite their contracts and game deficiencies:

Mo for Haslem

We've talked about this ad nauseum, but I have a hard time seeing Riley thinking Mo is worth 9 million a year, much less worht Haslem. Sure, Riley wanted Mo for the MLE last seaosn, but that was also before they competely went for the rebuild and traded shaq. It was also before a season where they played with pathetic effort and poor defense, so trading for Mo for one of their best defenders would be a huge step in the wrong direction.

Furthermore, they'll be drafting at a spot where there will be a variety of solid pg's. If they do draft Beasley then trading haslem for a PG certainly increases in likelihood, but even then I'm not sure they decide Mo is the best they can get for him. And it's not like adding Charlie Villanueva to that deal would help, as he is the absolute antithesis of a Riely kind of guy.

Redd for Howard/Stackhouse

Now the Mavs certainly need to change direction to some degree, and it appears like Howard will be the odd man out. However, is Redd really that good a fit for them? He definitley would be a solid #2 scorer for them and he has a history of playing great with Kidd...but is either of those things worth $18 mill a year for a team deep in luxuary tax territory? considering htey have to double Redd's salary I think Cuban will be a lot more hesitant to take a flier on Redd than people here are thinking. This is especially true considering how bad Redd's defense is, and if they did this they'd probably have to resort to small ball wtih Redd at SF as they'd have very limited resources to get a starting caliber SF.

I don't buy that Howard's value has decreased so much, as despite the weed stuff and poor playoff performance, he has put up 20 and 7 with great defense for the season. He's an all star caliber versatile player, and although Redd is on Team USA, the comparisons of him to Gordon really scared me as it's very debatable just how much better he is in total than more middle of the pack starting SG's.



I have a lot of hope for Hammond, but I really don't want us to get more excited than we should about what he'll be able to pull off. Our team is full of overpaid greedy lazy losers, and the whole league knows it.

I think Redd would do very well on a team with one or two other stars. Most here agree that a team can't contend with Redd being "the guy". That's why I think Dallas would be a logical destination for him.

MickeyDavis wrote:I think Redd would do very well on a team with one or two other stars. Most here agree that a team can't contend with Redd being "the guy". That's why I think Dallas would be a logical destination for him.

As a player he'd definitely help them, but at what cost? He'd be getting paid $36 mill a year wiht the luxuary tax, and they'd lose one of their very best defenders at a position where they have zero depth.

Dallas does not another star and Redd would be a whole lot better playing with other stars and a real coach (like he was with Team USA where he even palyed some D), but this is a major risk for hte mavs to take. I'm just not sold that Howard's value is so low that they couldn't find a player that wouldn't be as bad for their cap or defensive potential.

now if the bucks included more this can change, especially if we can help the mavs get at least a solid SF defender somehow. Them having to use their MLE in addition to paying redd jsut to round out their roster seems like it'd be far from preferable for Cuban though.

Yes, but we over-value a lot of other players as well.

rafer, I tend to think that if there was a RealGM-Rate-A-Player-O-Meter that would measure the central tendency of this Bucks board we would be close to the perception of others outside this board. I believe that is why proposed trades tend to be biased in one direction or another. Personally, I believe the Mo-Haslam trade appears reasonable, with the possible filler added to either side, as well as the Redd-Howard/Stack deal; which I would think may end up happening in some form or another. What will be interesting is if Hammond does make some deals involving Mo, CV, and/or Redd (Mo & CV (inevitable imho) and Redd (more difficult but possible)) just how they compare to the ones thrown out on this board. That will be the ultimate base value and we can indeed see where we stand at that time.

Yes, we over-value our players...especially the guys we like. I also agree the trades you mentioned are pipe dreams. We have been one of the worst teams in the league and many of our guys are way overpaid. I don't see any team giving us much value for over paid perennial losers.

I feel we're stuck because our best hope to land a great player is to find a bad team that wants to unload their highly paid best player. The Griz knew they weren't going to win anytime soon so why pay Gasol all that money? A team like that is willing to take .25 cents on the dollar just to get rid of their contract. However, the Bucks don't have any big expiring deals that these teams are looking for. We also don't have good players that are attractively priced. Nobody is going to take on Redd or Simmons salary. I just don't see us making any major trades for a couple years. CV for something minor is about as good as it's going to get.

MickeyDavis wrote:I think Redd would do very well on a team with one or two other stars. Most here agree that a team can't contend with Redd being "the guy". That's why I think Dallas would be a logical destination for him.

I agee completely with that. Just looking at how he did for team USA this past summer it is pretty obvious that Redd can thrive with others around him when the only thing he really needs to do is shoot. I think that a problem for Redd this year might have been a little bit of overconfidence in himself and his abilities based on how well he did for USA while shooting basically high school three pointers.

It really depends on the team and the fit.

For the right team Redd is very valuable, but not for everyone. He needs to go to a team that badly needs a shooter. I think a Ray Allen type trade (Seattle to the Celtics) might be possible.

The same goes for MO. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Likely we would need to take some crap back in return.

I think all fans overvalue their teams players to an extent. I also think some people undervalue those same players.

I personally can't see Bogut or Yi get traded, but that doesn't mean that Hammond views them differently. It's all in what you percieve as reality. No one is necessarily wrong because most players can be successful in the right system. Chauncy Billups is the perfect example of that.

iveyfanclub wrote:I agee completely with that. Just looking at how he did for team USA this past summer it is pretty obvious that Redd can thrive with others around him when the only thing he really needs to do is shoot. I think that a problem for Redd this year might have been a little bit of overconfidence in himself and his abilities based on how well he did for USA while shooting basically high school three pointers.

Redd started out very hot for Team USA but tailed off towards the end if I remember correctly. If you look at his overall stats, they aren't overly impressive when compared to other players on the team. He was brought in as a shooting specialist but look at his 3pt%: it was 45.3% which sounds good until you put it in context and see that numerous players shot a better percentages. Eliminating the guys with a lower number of attempts, you still have Lebron who shot 62.2%, Melo who shot 57.8% and Kobe who shot 45.9%.

If you look at overall FG% (I'm unable to calculate efg as I don't see the actual number of shot attempts on the site I'm looking at), he's even further down the list as guys like Howard and Amare are understandably ahead of him in addition to the guys listed above.

True to his NBA form though Redd was still able to launch 10 shots per game which was good for 2nd on team. When you put his numbers in context, Redd looks pretty similar to what he is in the NBA: a volume scorer with decent but no great percentages who doesn't bring much else to the table.

In addition to that recent Berri analysis which didn't even have him in the top-15 SG's, I noticed a "rank NBA SG's" thread on the player comparison board in which nearly every poster had Redd outside the top 10.

Given his salary, I don't expect to get much in return for him in a trade. The argument used to be "He isn't a franchise guy but he would be a great second option somewhere!" and I think even that opinion is starting to look flimsy.

Superfito wrote:Yes, but we over-value a lot of other players as well.

Ie. Josh Howard, Udonis Haslem, and Josh Childress (but he's growing on me)

at least bucks fans aren't as bad in overrating their players as brewer fans are.

oops wait, the majority of you are also the same people who overate brewers players.

I think you guy overvalue Mike tremendously and undervalue Mo..Mo would be very valuable on a team that is looking to go deep into the playoffs, and no, before you guys start--- I don't believe Mo would be the guy preventing that team from going deep into the playoffs..

I don't think a player like Bogut should have an "expectation chart" since his game is not aggressive and he doesn't like to mix his game up on the offense end...

Let him average his 12-15 pts and 10-11 boards and be happy with it..

Yi is a player I was never high on to begin with.. 7 footers with no post up game are players I have no personal use for.. Not suggesting he isn't talented, but that's just me... Unless they posses all star talent, and can carry a team, I dpn't want my PF along the perimeter..

I don't see how you can't be high on Sessions though... That was a pretty impressive week, that hopefully for you guys can extend into next season... At the very least it's a promising start...

Yes, this whole board overvalues our players to ridiculous levels. When they don't do well, it's clearly not the players fault, because all of our players are totally awesome. It's always the coaches fault.

Let the record show that I think all of our players suck.

BuckFan25226 wrote:Yes, this whole board overvalues our players to ridiculous levels. When they don't do well, it's clearly not the players fault, because all of our players are totally awesome. It's always the coaches fault.

I don't agree with this statement at all. I think you need to start reading the board more.

I'm a big Bucks fan, but a realist as well. I'll put each player from this past seasons team on a trade level of high, medium or none for values of how they are regarded around the rest of the league.

High

Bogut-Would never get enough in return on a trade for him
Sessions-Expectations are high after a solid last month

Medium

Mo-Makes too much $ to be what he is, a great 6th man at SG
Redd-$$$ makes him difficult to trade, not equal value in return
Dez-
Bell
Yi-Fell off after a long year, wouldn't get equal value for him
CV-Small contract and can score, but is he worth a big $ extension soon?

Low

Gadz-$$$ contract makes nearly impossible to trade
Simmons-see above
Voskuhl-FA now
Ivey-Solid PG to round out the bench, not much value
Ruffin-See above
Storey-No value whatsoever

Compared to most of realgm, I'd say we underrate our players.

raferfenix wrote:Ever since the Magloire heartbreak trade I've made an effort not to overvalue our players. With that said, I really am worried that trades that many of us are talking about as being realistic are anything but. I think we should reassess them in terms of our player's perceived values and not so much by an assumed desperation by these teams to take on our guys despite their contracts and game deficiencies:

Mo for Haslem

We've talked about this ad nauseum, but I have a hard time seeing Riley thinking Mo is worth 9 million a year, much less worht Haslem. Sure, Riley wanted Mo for the MLE last seaosn, but that was also before they competely went for the rebuild and traded shaq. It was also before a season where they played with pathetic effort and poor defense, so trading for Mo for one of their best defenders would be a huge step in the wrong direction.

Furthermore, they'll be drafting at a spot where there will be a variety of solid pg's. If they do draft Beasley then trading haslem for a PG certainly increases in likelihood, but even then I'm not sure they decide Mo is the best they can get for him. And it's not like adding Charlie Villanueva to that deal would help, as he is the absolute antithesis of a Riely kind of guy.

Redd for Howard/Stackhouse

Now the Mavs certainly need to change direction to some degree, and it appears like Howard will be the odd man out. However, is Redd really that good a fit for them? He definitley would be a solid #2 scorer for them and he has a history of playing great with Kidd...but is either of those things worth $18 mill a year for a team deep in luxuary tax territory? considering htey have to double Redd's salary I think Cuban will be a lot more hesitant to take a flier on Redd than people here are thinking. This is especially true considering how bad Redd's defense is, and if they did this they'd probably have to resort to small ball wtih Redd at SF as they'd have very limited resources to get a starting caliber SF.

I don't buy that Howard's value has decreased so much, as despite the weed stuff and poor playoff performance, he has put up 20 and 7 with great defense for the season. He's an all star caliber versatile player, and although Redd is on Team USA, the comparisons of him to Gordon really scared me as it's very debatable just how much better he is in total than more middle of the pack starting SG's.



I have a lot of hope for Hammond, but I really don't want us to get more excited than we should about what he'll be able to pull off. Our team is full of overpaid greedy lazy losers, and the whole league knows it.

I cannot imagine Dallas moving Howard for Redd, but I do see some logic in the suggestion.

As far as Mo for Haslem? Not sure, fairly comparable talents, but again I doubt I do that if I am Riley.

So in short, both are close but a bit wishful.

LUKE23 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



I don't agree with this statement at all. I think you need to start reading the board more.

I'm exaggerating. Clearly some of the players blatantly blow on this team. But in general, we overrate our players in trade ideas, and expectations etc. This shouldn't be a mystery to anyone.

BuckFan25226 wrote:


I'm exaggerating. Clearly some of the players blatantly blow on this team. But in general, we overrate our players in trade ideas, and expectations etc. This shouldn't be a mystery to anyone.

Yup. This board especially overrates incoming players...Mags, Bobby, CV, all come to mind...and whatever misleading or mistaken meme takes hold (Mags-the-All-Star, Bobby-the-MIP, CV and his 48 point game) seems to take at least a full season to die.