Eliminate the lottery

[jerrod]

and


i just don't get the thinking that by taking all of the risk of tanking but not getting a great pick away, you're gonna get rid of tanking.

all it's gonna do is make teams more willing to do it because there's no chance of losing more games and then having bad luck keep you out of a top pick

[drew881]

I'm not much for conspiracy theories in general, but pulling the ping pong balls behind closed doors invites speculation. Doubt the results are fully rigged, but I wouldn't be surprised if David selectively modified the results at times in handing out Stern Justice. It's a handy way of imposing penalties (with the owners knowing quietly) without publicity.

Or of avoiding the highly unlikely result that damages parity or bothers the public.

I criticize the NBA for the current setup. But I'd probably criticize any other option too.

Pulling it behind closed doors makes sense....You have to realize how many REPEAT draws there can be. Once one team wins, they don't open up the ball hopper and take out those balls. They still must draw the next two spots.

So for instance. If they are drawing Miami and they get number 1, they still have to draw for the other picks, and Miami's name could still come up a number of times. Plus, drawing off camera allows the reverse pick announcements where they countdown to the number 1 pick (suspense? tv anyone?)

I guess what would satisfy fans is if they video taped it, and then showed the boring feed on NBA.com. That would be interesting not only to disprove conspiracy, but also as a documentary of the process (rather than the lame one they show every year where X person is denied entrance into the room as a joke at the end).

[LUKE23]

and


i just don't get the thinking that by taking all of the risk of tanking but not getting a great pick away, you're gonna get rid of tanking.

all it's gonna do is make teams more willing to do it because there's no chance of losing more games and then having bad luck keep you out of a top pick

Agreed. Like I said, eliminating the lottery system and going to strict record will not eliminate tanking, it will just eliminate speculation.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

The closed doors doesn't suggest conspiracy to me - it suggest that they want to have as much control over the process as possible. This is what you would want if you wanted to rig the results, but also if you wanted to ensure their integrity.

The only aspect of the lotto process that seems poorly thought out from an anti-rigging perspective is that they assign the numbers sequentially. The numbers ought to be generated and assigned randomly so that each ping pong ball will most likely belong to each and every team. I don't have a statistical background though, so I fully accept that there could be good reasons for this that I'm not aware of.

[LUKE23]

The closed doors doesn't suggest conspiracy to me - it suggest that they want to have as much control over the process as possible. This is what you would want if you wanted to rig the results, but also if you wanted to ensure their integrity.

The only aspect of the lotto process that seems poorly thought out from an anti-rigging perspective is that they assign the numbers sequentially. The numbers ought to be generated and assigned randomly so that each ping pong ball will most likely belong to each and every team. I don't have a statistical background though, so I fully accept that there could be good reasons for this that I'm not aware of.

They are randomly assigned.

This is the process:

1. Computer assigns 1,000 numbered combinations to the 13 lottery teams randomly (Miami gets 250 combinations on down the line).

2. Four balls are draw in succession out of the hopper, where there are fourteen balls numbered 1-14. So if the combination is 3-6-2-1, the team that has 3-6-2-1 on their combination sheet gets the #1 pick.

3. Balls placed back in hopper and process repeated for pick #2.

4. Balls placed back in hopper and process repeated for pick #3.

5. Remaining order determined by record.

[Noogle]

Frankly, I think the lottery is un-American. I don't see the point of "helping" big time corporations that are badly run compared to their counterparts in the same league.

I think that teams should be left to their devices to sign whoever wants to sign with them whenever they want to sign him.

Basically, my suggestion is this:

1. Scrap the lottery and draft. No drafting players based on any prescribed order or anything. No such thing. Thing of the past.

2. I.e. You allow every player in the world to be a free agent, free to be signed by any NBA team at any point during his/her life.

3. If that player is signed at a very young age (let's say, to be extreme, it's age , it becomes that team's responsibility to make sure he is provided for educationally and medically.

4. Obviously, this system would mean that basketball teams would suddenly have "farm" teams. This is great, imo, but would require a bit of regulation. The best way to do this would be to institute a Farm Team salary cap, to go along with the Pro team's salary cap.

5. Suddenly you have a system where the smartest, best scouting teams are the ones that prosper, as opposed to the wrong-headed worst-gets-better system that we have now. At the same time, the teams with the hugest resources, like big market teams, would not have a resource advantage since their spending is capped.

6. This makes the NBA a lot more globalized because teams would have incentives to start basketball camps for youth in other countries, much in the way baseball does in Latin America. Imagine all the basketball academies you could start in places like Africa and China, and how much more effective you'd be as a grassroots-type of product.

7. At the same time, this system gives NO incentive whatsoever for tanking. Since there is no draft, there's no reason to tank. And since your development budget and cap are separate from your pro budget and cap, all teams would have no other choice but to do both at the same time.

Voila, fixed.

Pity no one asks me for advice in the real NBA world.

[jerrod]

Pity no one asks me for advice in the real NBA world.

i disagree

[fam3381]

luke - that is part of the current problem. the kings are sending some lucky season ticket holder fan to the lottery. the nets are sending some rap star. i doubt either will pay much attention to the actual mechanics of the ping pong balls coming out of the machine. frankly, i doubt if any of the team's reps pays any attention to the actual mechanics of the balls.

Those are the people on stage, not the people watching the process behind closed doors IIRC.

I guess what would satisfy fans is if they video taped it, and then showed the boring feed on NBA.com. That would be interesting not only to disprove conspiracy, but also as a documentary of the process (rather than the lame one they show every year where X person is denied entrance into the room as a joke at the end).

I'm fairly certain they do videotape it...I thought I'd seen snippets of it on TV. But as far as I know they don't every broadcast the whole thing.

[MajorDad]

nice insight drew and luke.

i was under the false impression that the guy who is sitting in the row with the lucky voodoo charms is the only representative at the lottery. You are both saying there is a separate rep in the booth area. i did read a report that either last year or the year before, that a certain team's name did actually come up several times. That would make for a boring TV show just like that new BINGO program. but it also helped fuel speculation that the process was rigged. people said it mus t be rigged if a certai n team's bal l always came up. but then again, playing the percentages, it would be natural to assume the last place team's ball would come up more than just once.

i guess we live in a nation where people believe everything is rigged. in the Match Game today, the defending champion had an easy match answer, but needed all six people to match. 5 out of 6 matched the contestant. the 6th one gave a real bizarre answer as if to ensure the person lost. On BINGO, the real perky girl needed an O to win. and low and behold, three O's came up one after the other until she finally got the question right and won the game. I know game shows by law can't be rigged, but it sure looked like both shows were guilty of deciding the winner.

[LUKE23]

nice insight drew and luke.

i was under the false impression that the guy who is sitting in the row with the lucky voodoo charms is the only representative at the lottery. You are both saying there is a separate rep in the booth area. i did read a report that either last year or the year before, that a certain team's name did actually come up several times. That would make for a boring TV show just like that new BINGO program. but it also helped fuel speculation that the process was rigged. people said it mus t be rigged if a certai n team's bal l always came up. but then again, playing the percentages, it would be natural to assume the last place team's ball would come up more than just once.

i guess we live in a nation where people believe everything is rigged. in the Match Game today, the defending champion had an easy match answer, but needed all six people to match. 5 out of 6 matched the contestant. the 6th one gave a real bizarre answer as if to ensure the person lost. On BINGO, the real perky girl needed an O to win. and low and behold, three O's came up one after the other until she finally got the question right and won the game. I know game shows by law can't be rigged, but it sure looked like both shows were guilty of deciding the winner.

There is a rep from each of the 13 lottery teams in the back room where the lottery is held. Each gets a sheet of their random assigned number combinations before the balls are drawn out of the hopper.

So then lets say 7-12-9-11 is taken out of the hopper in succession. The rep holding that combination in their hand then knows they have that pick.

[MickeyDavis]

The lottery is the highlight of our season. You can't take that away from us.

[MajorDad]

This is why I come here. I have oppinions. But, I like to hear the real facts from intelligent people. You would not believe how much i have learned about the NBA in the past 3 years from reading people's responses to my "unique" posts.

That's why I like to speculate and to ask what if. You can't do a Google or yahoo search to find out this much insight and information about the inner workings of the NBA. That's why my posts often seem rather .... Goofy and uninformed. it's because i know that other posters are knowledgeable, but sometimes you forget how knowledgeable you are and some things that you take for granted that everyone knows, really only about 23% of us know. That's why i ask the question. Sometimes i do it for myself, but often times , i do it so that others will also know. Thanks for sharing.

thanks.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

1. Computer assigns 1,000 numbered combinations to the 13 lottery teams randomly (Miami gets 250 combinations on down the line)

That's how I think it should happen, but I remember very specifically hearing that this wasn't the case last year. I'll be hard pressed to remember my source, but I believe that it was a quote from the Grizzlies representative in the closed room - something along the lines of "as soon as we heard number X, we knew it wasn't us, because all of our combos began with Y."

Something like that.

[LUKE23]

-= original quote snipped =-

That's how I think it should happen, but I remember very specifically hearing that this wasn't the case last year. I'll be hard pressed to remember my source, but I believe that it was a quote from the Grizzlies representative in the closed room - something along the lines of "as soon as we heard number X, we knew it wasn't us, because all of our combos began with Y."

Something like that.

http://www.nba.com/media/bucks/WHAT%20W ... N_2008.pdf

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a drum. There are 1,001
possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of
selection. Prior to the Lottery, 1,000 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating Lottery
teams by a computer.

No matter what combinations that rep was holding his hands, they were randomly assigned. I think that is a more than fair way to do it.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Thanks for the pdf Luke - glad to hear they're doing it that way. I still believe that this is a change from last year though. What's that website that allows you to search message boards? I'm pretty sure we even had a thread about it last year.

[LUKE23]

It could be a change from last year, I honestly don't even remember.

[jerrod]

it could be random and you could still end up without any sets of numbers that start with a certain number

[fam3381]

Adam, what you're saying sounds familiar, but the Memphis paper had this in an FAQ last year which suggests the combo assignments weren't simply sequential:

How are the number combinations assigned to teams?

Randomly, by a computer. But the lottery team with the worst record (the Grizzlies) gets 250 of 1,000 possible number combinations. The lottery team with the best record (the Clippers) gets five of 1,000 possible number combinations.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/mca/gri ... 13,00.html

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Sounds like I remember things wrong, or misinterpreted them in the first place. Thanks for pulling that up fam.

[coolhandluke121]

The lottery is stupid. Granted, it sometimes prevents teams from being rewarded for tanking, but those teams didn't know they wouldn't benefit from tanking so they tanked anyway. Happens every year, blatantly. Instead of tanking for a higher pick, teams are tanking for better odds at a higher pick. Same difference - either way, they're tanking. Period. They have nothing else to play for.

The NBA is more paranoid about tanking because it is the most superstar-driven sport. When there's a Lebron or Oden in the draft teams have more incentive to tank than to win. It would be nice if that could be avoided without hurting the truly bad teams, but under the current system it can't.


HEY, HERE'S A GREAT IDEA!

Get rid of the draft altogether and let rookies sign as free agents. The bad teams should have an advantage because they should have cap space. Get rid of the rookie salary scale because it's obscene that during their first four years guys like Lebron make a fraction of what Marbury and Finley made this year. If bad teams don't have more cap space, it's usually their own fault for having bad contracts. This would make teams think twice about giving out huge contracts to mediocre players. You have to admit that huge guaranteed contracts are really hurting the game, so this idea would make the process of bringing young players into the league more sensible. And the rare team that can win without overpaying has a chance to keep adding good young talent.