B Lopez vs Bogut

[LUKE23]

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He's overrated prospected because he's a 6'4 SG who doesn't go the basket. You can't be an elite scorer unless you get to the free throw line (at least it's incredibly difficult) and his assist/TO ratio indicates he's not point guard. So what you've got an undersized two guard who's a good all-around player but not great at any individual aspect of the game.

He's a 6-4 guard with the ability to play PG as well, that's a big difference from a straight SG with no creation abilities. And he does go to the basket. You're taking 4.6 FTA, which is a pretty good number, and defining his entire game by that. Brandon Roy averaged 4.7 FTA FOR HIS CAREER at Washington, Mayo did that as a freshman. It's just a very odd stat to pull out to try and define a player.

Mayo will very likely be a 20/5/5 Brandon Roy type player. Him and Wade would be an absolutely dynamite backcourt.

So you didn't answer my question. Who is the better prospect between Mayo and Lopez?

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

So Speights or Lopez given the choice?

I honestly haven't seen Speights much. I have my top 4 ranked, but after that, just a list of people I would be ok with.

I'd be ok with Lopez and Alexander for sure. Maybe Randolph, Westbrook, and Gallinari. I know DrugBust is very high on Speights.

I know I'm not so keen on Jordan (no basketball skills) or Gordon (no pg skills).

[midranger]

I've never seen Speights play a full game of basketball, so I can't rank him either.

It's all about the hype machine with him at this point.

I have seen Lopez play a few games, and he was pretty impressive IMO.

[Worm Guts]

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He's a 6-4 guard with the ability to play PG as well, that's a big difference from a straight SG with no creation abilities. And he does go to the basket. You're taking 4.6 FTA, which is a pretty good number, and defining his entire game by that. Brandon Roy averaged 4.7 FTA FOR HIS CAREER at Washington, Mayo did that as a freshman. It's just a very odd stat to pull out to try and define a player.

Mayo will very likely be a 20/5/5 Brandon Roy type player. Him and Wade would be an absolutely dynamite backcourt.

So you didn't answer my question. Who is the better prospect between Mayo and Lopez?

Brandon Roy is probably my favorite comparison to Mayo although as senior Roy had a 6.5/13.6 FTA/FGA ration which is considerably better than Mayo's was as freshman.
To tell the truth, I'm not sure how good the stat is as an indicator at the NBA level but someone pointed it out to me and it really made me wonder. If you can't get to the line in college, how are you going to get to the line in the NBA?

[europa]

I think FTA/FGA is a very important statistic to use when evaluating scoring and how a player scores. I'm not sure how it translates from college to the NBA but I do believe that players with strong FTA/FGA ratios in the NBA are more valuable scorers if for no other reason than their offensive game is more diverse.

As far as Mayo, I think he may end up having a Michael Finley-type career in the NBA. A top scorer but not an elite SG.

[LUKE23]

I think FTA/FGA is a very important statistic to use when evaluating scoring and how a player scores. I'm not sure how it translates from college to the NBA but I do believe that players with strong FTA/FGA ratios in the NBA are more valuable scorers if for no other reason than their offensive game is more diverse.

As far as Mayo, I think he may end up having a Michael Finley-type career in the NBA. A top scorer but not an elite SG.

Finley was probably a better athlete than Mayo coming out, but he never had Mayo's passing ability. People really underrate how good of a passer Mayo is. I see Mayo as a combo guard with SG size, which is a lot better than a 6-4 guy who can't create at all.

I see him as a guy who can defend (shut down Bayless and Rose this year and takes pride in his D) while also putting up a lot of 20/5/5 games.

He's going to be a player.

[europa]

Finley averaged between 4-5 assists per game during his best seasons with the Mavs. He typically produced seasons of 20 points, 5-6 rebounds a game and 4-5 assists per game. I think that's where Mayo could end up falling. Finley was a damn good all-around player during his best seasons. Frankly, I'm not sure Mayo will be as good as Finley was but that could be a little of my UW alum bias showing.

[LUKE23]

Finley averaged between 4-5 assists per game during his best seasons with the Mavs. He typically produced seasons of 20 points, 5-6 rebounds a game and 4-5 assists per game. I think that's where Mayo could end up falling. Finley was a damn good all-around player during his best seasons. Frankly, I'm not sure Mayo will be as good as Finley was but that could be a little of my UW alum bias showing.

Yeah, Finley is one of the more forgotten guys. 5 straight 20+ ppg seasons. You're also right, he's a better assist guy that I remembered. Still upset the Bucks didn't draft him, I probably saw 80% of his games in the Field House (one of the loudest buildings known to man when it was packed).

I still see Mayo like Roy, who I think has a lot more PG skills than Finley, even though Finley did average good assist numbers, I always saw him as more of a SG.

[paulpressey25]

Wasn't Finley a lot taller than Mayo and with a bigger wingspan? I can't see Mayo ever playing SF.

[LUKE23]

Wasn't Finley a lot taller than Mayo and with a bigger wingspan? I can't see Mayo ever playing SF.

Mayo is a combo PG/SG, Finley is a SG/SF.

[Nowak008]

Nothing that completely blows you away, but good enough to be in the top half of starters at that position. At #8, if you can get a guy who is a Top-15 starter at his position, you've done fairly well for yourself.

Agreed. With how few good centers in the league, Lopez should be able to be top 10 with out too much trouble.

[emunney]

Duncan
Howard
Kaman
Stoudemire
Yao
Camby
Chandler
Bynum
Bogut
Ilgauskas
Okur
Horford
Biedrins
Dalembert
O'Neal
Oden

That's 16... who thinks that Brook Lopez is going to have success against any of these guys?

[midranger]

You could make a list of players at any position and ask whether any rookie will have success against them. Established players should be better than rookies.

[emunney]

Well, then how is Lopez going to be a top 10 center without much trouble? I could name at least 20 other bigs who'll give him fits on day one because he's too weak and too slow. Many of them are backups. Can you imagine him trying to man up to Craig Smith? And he's a backup on one of the worst teams in the league.

[midranger]

Well, then how is Lopez going to be a top 10 center without much trouble? I could name at least 20 other bigs who'll give him fits on day one because he's too weak and too slow. Many of them are backups. Can you imagine him trying to man up to Craig Smith? And he's a backup on one of the worst teams in the league.

I doubt that guys like Shaq, Z, Camby et al. will play forever. They all looked like they were really slowing down last year.

Also, Biedrins, Dalembert, and Okur aren't great players. They are sorta decent players in a center starved NBA. I could definitely see Lopez ending up better than all of those guys.

And Oden has never played a game and is coming off a serious injury, plus Bynum and Yao have injury issues as well.

I said I think Lopez ends up a Top-15 center. I'll stand by that.

And Craig Smith? Come on. Just because Bogut couldn't handle Chuck Hayes as a rookie, doesn't mean that every center drafted will be that way.

[midranger]

I know Chris Mihm has been a whipping boy in this thread, but the guy's career has been one big injury. Despite that, he's still a skilled big man. Watching the Finals, JVG stated he thought Mihm was a "very good starting center" before his most recent injury that side lined him all year. This promted me to check out what Mihm has done lately.

Last year, Mihm put up...

10.2 ppg
6.3 rpg
1.2 bpg

in 26.2 minutes

...for a Western Conference playoff team. As probably the last option in the lineup at any given time.

Normalize that to Bogut's 34.9 minutes last year and it's...

13.6 ppg
8.4 rpg
1.6 bpg

Bogut put up

14.3 ppg
9.8 rpg
1.7 bpg

Now I realize that stats don't transfer with minutes perfectly. But I also realize that Bogut collected his stats as either the #1, #2, or #3 option for one of the worst teams in the NBA, and many of them coming during garbage time of the NBA season, while Mihm did it as a non-option starting center for a Western Conference playoff team.

[paulpressey25]

I look at the Lopez floor as Mihm and the ceiling as "Z"-man.

If you told NBA general managers they had a 40% shot of getting Z man with the 8th pick in a crapshoot draft, I think they'd take it. But I realize the Z-man percentage I quoted is entirely my subjective guess.

[midranger]

I look at the Lopez floor as Mihm and the ceiling as "Z"-man.

If you told NBA general managers they had a 40% shot of getting Z man with the 8th pick in a crapshoot draft, I think they'd take it. But I realize the Z-man percentage I quoted is entirely my subjective guess.

I agree with this. Though, it's tough to say what Mihm's career could have been had he not been one big injury every year. Despite that, he was a decent enough starting center for a Western Conference playoff team as recently as last year.

If that's the guy's floor, I'm taking him.

[midranger]

Correction.

Mihm missed all of last year with injury. It was two years ago that he played well for the Lakers, which were a playoff team that year as well.

[redred9]

to be honest, i think if Bogut plays for the Lakers, his averages actually go up. Bogut normally shoots at a good percentage anyway, so its not like hes out there chucking because no one else can score (like on most bad teams). And look how much Gasol handles the ball for the Lakers- hes a scorer and distributor- Bogut would work perfectly in that offence. Mihm on the Bucks- ill bet he would never get the ball and his averages sink.