ESPN Playoff Odds

[buckaroo]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

I read JH's explanation of his model, but still don't understand how MIL is only at 49% probability of making the playoffs and CHI is at 71%. Does CHI have critical guys out and injured? No. But I find it hard to believe that there is a 20% difference in probability.

[MickeyDavis]

Yeah that seems like a lot but they do have a lot more talent than we do right now. Of course they also have VInny Del Negro.

[LUKE23]

It's based on PPG differential, O/D efficiency ranks, and remaining schedule. They don't take what the roster is into account. Bulls have an easier remaining schedule than we do.

[buckaroo]

And it may be more likely that the Bulls make the playoffs, but 20% ?!?

[buckaroo]

Looking at the remaining schedule, JH's projected 38-44 record does seem realistic. Wow, this proves how every game counts. A couple wins here or there could increase the likelihood of the playoffs by 20%. Poor MIL.

[VanillaSky]

The Bulls will make the playoffs, but so will we.....Philly's not gettin in, brutal schedule, including a 5 game western roadie. In the last 40 days of the regular seaon, Philly has 23 games compared to our 16. Huge advantage for us. Go Bucks!