OFF-SEASON PLAN OPTIONS

[GRADEN]

An off-season that, to me at least, is ripe with opportunity for the Hawks. I’ve analyzed the last 10 years and it typically comes down to 15-20 decisions from small ones like deciding or not to offer an ELC to a mid-round pick in Europe or to whether or not to go all-in on a FA or trade. Here is what I would do if GM.


1. Lose Kampf to expansion
2. Deal Zadorov rights to Oilers for a 3rd
3. Trade D Regula, Pick #63 to Sabres for LW Victor Olofsson.
4. Resign Sutter (2/6.75)
5. Resign Hinostroza 1/1.5
6. Sign LD Jake McCabe 1/2.5
7. Resign Gaudette 1/1
8. Hagel gets 3 year extension / 1.65aav
9. Delia / Subban and Hawks part ways
10. Draft C Svechkov at #11
11. Buyout D De Haan
12. Overpay for D Hamilton 6/52.5
13. Sign G Halak 1/4m
14. Draft C Salminen at #43
15. Trade Strome for #97 (Anaheim) and a 2022 5th (4th if he resigns)
16. Draft D Ufko at #83 (Zadorov deal)
17. Draft RW Alarie at #97
18. Draft D Zellweger at #104
19. Trade #171 and #203 to take LW Degrazia at #155
20. Draft G Korhonen at #215

Notes: C Toews rejoins team, RW Nylander participates in TC plays in 30-50 games

Depth:
LW Olofsson , DeBrincat, Hagel, Connolly
C Toews, Dach, Suter, Carpenter
RW Kubalik, Kane, Hinostroza, Kurashev

Reserves: Borgstrom, Gaudette, Hardman, Entwistle, Reichel, Nylander, Barratt, Altybarmakian, Slavin

LD: Kalynuk, McCabe, Keith
RD: Hamilton, Murphy, Boqvist

Reserves: Mitchell, Stillman, Beaudin, Phillips, Galvas

G: Lankanen, Halak

(Rockford: Soderblum, Morris)

Thoughts: Toews health is first and foremost here and I suspect he’ll have some rest days mixed into every 5-7 games. That will give Borgstrom / Gaudette / Kurashev some center work in the season. The D lines must be reworked. Overpaying to get Hamilton is preferred by me over Seth Jones simply because it’d cost too much. Likely price take is #11 and Mitchell and a sweetener and that’s a conservative ask. Jones will command a full 7 or 8 year at around 8m deal and I think Hamilton could be a year or 2 less term and maybe .5-1m per less. I know Hamilton isn’t the best defender but he is a legit #1 PP guy and can really produce. If we can shed Zadorov, De Haan, and maybe even Murphy for space and assets then I’m all in. My new pairings look balanced to me and it places some of our prospects where they should be.

Goalies… Delia and Subban are average backups at best so losing them is not a big deal. Lankanen needs a mentor and I’d love to get in a Rinne or Halak for their last season to see if they can help him. Commesso is still 3 years away so no help is coming soon.

It’s a bold aggressive plan I’ve laid out but it’s doable for Stan. The draft I did was well thought out and maybe Svechkov is a 5-15 pick reach to some but he screams 2way 2nd line center. He will play pro KHL minutes next season and he will be ready quickly. His defensive ability is outstanding already. In the second round there will be some nice center prospects that got pushed down with the Dmen going early. Samu Salminen is another high end Fin prospect I think could go late 1st too. He was the Jrs captain and really produced. He has great size and knows how to take up space and can score. He’d be a still anywhere past 30.

[GRADEN]

Reports are that Hamilton wants to stay in Carolina and that the canes don’t want to lose him…. Have to imagine his ask starts at 8/64 but ultimately ends up a 7/57.5 to me. If that’s on the table then I don’t think the hawks get into the frame.

Jones will be sooooo expensive it’s ridiculous:

He’ll be an extension of 8/64 range AND cost a 1st, a high end prospect, a medium prospect, and a 2022 2nd or 3rd. That’s horrible in my book. If you look at it though -
Those are the only 2 legit #1 Dmen available.

Kings, Redwings, Blackhawks, Devils, Senators, Kraken, Ducks, and Canes all should have the room to try at Hamilton I’d guess.

Kings, Ducks, Hawks I’d say are the main 3 for Jones.

Keep an eye on the Ducks here… they could be major players for either Jones or Hamilton

[GRADEN]

Looking at that plan again and I understand I’m using LTIR plan where maybe someone like a Toews doesn’t reinstate until FA deals are done etc and then they’d have until end of league year to be under hard cap…. Still, the Hamilton and Jones debate is super difficult

The new intel is that canes open to sign and trade so he can get an 8 year

I don’t know - 8 years he is 36 and with a hit in the 8 range.

I’m all about a 6/50 type of commitment but extending into the 8th year and 60-70m I think I’d pass

Same on Jones…. He is a good player but dang anything 8/64 for a “good” top pair guy is iffy to me

I was doing some more research on the draft and it’s like when I see D prospects Ceulemans and Lambos and think of #11 is too high… and the answer is big time it’s too high

I think Lambos is 16-22 range and projects as a good 2nd pair guy not until a Murphy and Ceulemans is actually not whom I thought right now… I think he is end of 1st and more suited to being a pick 34-45 range to be honest. He is 3 years out and has a lot of learning to do. Physical tools are all there but I just don’t see him as top 4 right now. I think he is a good strong 3rd pair guy in the league.

Brandt Clarke, Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Simon Edvinsson…. Those guys all look like top pair guys and none of them should escape the top 8 picks

[GRADEN]

The more I dive into the Hamilton and Jones into the more it seems that Jones is the way more likely choice.

Look, if the Kings want Jones then he is theirs because no one could compete with a Vilardi / pick 8 / prospects package.

Hamilton has suitors every which way… Flyers and Maple Leafs now involved too. It’s also believed that a front loaded 8 year deal is now the bar and that a 6-7yr even at 8 is low. So for me that’s too risky

Jones would cost us this package: Ian Mitchell, Pick 11, 2022 2nd, and Altybarmakian type of sweetener. That’s tough to lose. Then he’d be on books for 9 more seasons with 8 year extension.

To me at this point you must ride out all these D prospects

Mitchell, Boqvist, Kalynuk, Vlasic, Phillips, Stillman, Regula, Kaiser….

We need 2 of them to be great and 1 of them to be good and 1 of them to be nhl ….

[GRADEN]

Here is how I see some scenarios:

Now if Sharks are open to a 7 for 11, Regula, 2nd round pick if Clarke, Guenther, or even Edvinsson / Eklund make it to 7 maybe that’s worth the price


C Kent Johnson
C Fydor Svechkov
C Cole Sillinger
C Chaz Lucious
C Xavier Bourgault


RW Mason McTavish
LW Fabian Lysell
LW Aatu Raty
RW Sasha Pastujov
RW Matt Coronato


D Brandt Clarke
D Carson Lambos

G Jesper Wallstedt
G Sebastian Cossa

If all players available:

1. G Wallstedt
2. D Clarke
3. C Johnson
4. RW McTavish
5. C Svechkov
6. LW Lysell
7. C Sillinger
8. G Cossa
9. C Lucious
10. LW Raty
11. D Lambos
12. RW Pastujov
13. RW Coronato
14. C Bourgault

[GRADEN]

Beginning to think on all the rumors I read that the hawks are going to do something drastic


Calvin De Haan
Kirby Dach
Brett Connolly
Mackenzie Entwistle
Pick 11
2022 2nd round pick

Jack Eichel

Ian Mitchell
Pick 11
2022 2nd

Seth Jones

Those are pretty much the deals I’ve seen being talked about.

The Eichel one is cap fill and a sweetener so I filled in Entwistle and Connolly / de Haan for fill

Dach, a 1st, and 2nd for Eichel??? Seems fair to be honest but hard to give up on Dach so early.

If the deal is Mitchell, 1st and 2nd for Jones I kinda want to pass to be honest. I like Jones but to me he is going to be too pricey and I’m not sure he is a top half of the league #1 D guy.

It’s say would trade a second pair D, and top 6 wing, and a middle 6 guy for a top pair D…. And to me I wouldn’t

[GRADEN]

I wonder if there is a a way to take on that awful Skinner contract and bump pick 11 out of it for that cap take on maybe resign Zadorov to a 4 x4 for them and add in Strome

So Skinner and mid level prospect and put in Strome and Zadorov instead of 11

Eichel
Skinner
Prospect

Dach
Z
Strome
Entwistle
Connolly
2022 2nd
2021 2nd

Not sure… but clearing out Skinner would be huge

[GRADEN]

Latest intel points to the Hawks being in the Eichel sweepstakes firmly.

In my opinion I don’t think I’m going all in on offense with our defense the way it is.

Hamilton seems to have too many suitors to be taking a 6-7 year at 7-7.5 now. To me that means we are out

That leaves Seth Jones…. Any ask for Dach to me is a no. Want to ask for Mitchell and 11 and that’s it then sure. Extend 8x7.25 and I think that is all I would do.

[TNBT]

Well looks like you were on the money with the Jones trade. I’m not a fan of it at all, as I mentioned in the draft thread, but at least Bowman did the right thing when he said that Dach, DeBrincat and Reichel were all off the table. I see we’ve re-signed Gaudette which I like, but can anyone explain to me how on earth we qualified Zadorov but not Suter? We’ve got so many young defensemen coming through that need opportunities, plus we’ve also added the Jones brothers, so bringing back Zadorov only clogs up the system and he hasn’t been that good anyway IMO. Meanwhile, we’re lacking quality young forwards and Suter was actually pretty useful this year, unlike Zadorov. If Bowman hasn’t got some plan organised to bring Suter back, I’m going to be mad as hell.