STATE OF THE BLACKHAWKS 3-22-22

[GRADEN]

State of the Blackhawks

3-23-22

What’s just happened: Hired GM Kyle Davidson whom has just completed his first trade deadline:

Traded: LW Brandon Hagel, G Marc-Andre Fleury, and C Ryan Carpenter, 2022 4th, and 2024 4th

Received: LW Taylor Raddysh, RW Boris Katchouk, 2023 1st (TBL), 2024 1st (TBL), 2024 5th (CAL), 2022 conditional 1st (MIN) - becomes 2nd if Wild don’t reach conf. finals with Fleury winning 50% of wins.

My take: Davidson said re-build and that’s exactly what he has started. We got 2 everyday NHL wings with a middle 6 scorer and a bottom 6 depth piece. The big part of this are the 3 picks. Most likely is that each of the 1sts is in that 22-32 range and the Minnesota pick is at best #29 and at worst # 59 so it’s likely to be a 50/50 prospect to make the league. Still, it was FREE so let’s not be upset at that.

Current Roster and contracts:

UFAs: D De Haan, C Lafferty, D Gustafson, G Lankanen, G Delia
RFAs: C Strome, RW Kubalik, C Dach, LW Johnson, LW Kurashev, D C Jones

My take: A ton of work is ahead for Davidson on these players. Let’s get the easy ones off the table… D De Haan, D Gustafson, G Delia should all walk away.

After those 3 though there will be many tough conversations: #1 is Strome. He went from mid round pick trade to worth his QO of 3.7m to now I believe a final bridge deal of around 2/8. I also really like Lafferty as a 3rd line staple and think a 2/2.5 is exactly what he deserves. Lankanen is pretty much our only NHL goaltender so a prove it deal is a must at around 2.25 is what I think should be offered. 2/4.5 for me.

Some of the RFAs will be difficult; namely Kubalik. He isn’t worth his QO 4m so will have to decline and then be open market or trade his rights window. If someone trades a 4th for him and then they decline and give him a 2/5 then I think someone will do that. That’s what I think will happen. Recoup a 4th and move on. Dach needs a worth while bridge deal I’d say 3/9 which is what he has played like. Kurashev similar position I’d say 2/2.2. Caleb Jones should just get a 1/900k as a 7-8th D man. Reese Johnson is likely a depth fringe nhl 1 year min.

So to recap:
Leaving: De Haan, Gustafson, Delia, Kubalik
Deals: Strome (2/8), Dach (3/9), Lankanen (2/4.5), Lafferty (2/2.5), Kurashev (2/2.2), C Jones (1/900k), Johnson (1/780k)

In free agency: Spend 0 money outside of a 1 year deal. That should be an absolute here. Only guys that could have deadline value like we did with Janmark type of deals…

Under contract:
RW Kane (1/10.5)
C Toews (1/10.5)
C Khaira (1/975k)
LW DeBrincat (1/6.8-RFA)
C Borgstrom (1/1 - RFA)

Thoughts: Kane should get a 2-3 year extension in that 8.5-9.5 range) Let’s just make 8.88 x3 for fun. Toews on the other hand I think this will be his final year as a hawk and maybe in NHL. DeBrincat should get a raise as well. I think he is about a 8.5m player and at 5-6 years but of course it’s NHL so I think it will be a 7x9 when it’s all done. Borgstrom has a make or break year ahead so I’d say this will be his final Hawk year. Khaira likely to leave as well.

RW Entwistle (2/800k - RFA)
RW Raddysh (2/760k - RFA)
LW Katchouk (2/760k - RFA)
D Vlasic (2/760k - RFA)
D Stillman (2/1.35 - RFA)
C Johnson (2/5m)
D McCabe (3/12m)
D Murphy (4/17.6)
D S Jones (8/76m)

This is where it gets “oh boy” as our 3 top Dmen are all late 20s and paid a lot for a long time. McCabe has played his best hockey in the last 5-6 games but is still a bit behind the play. Murphy was having a down year before his injury. Jones, while a good top 4 guy with clear #1 PP point skill, is not worth his deal. Only Makar and Hedman are worth that deal. Jones is more like a 5x7.75 type of player for me. It will be a deal that if we can should be moved before he hits 30.

Prospects:

Like all teams, the Hawks prospects are all over the world: Europe, Canadian/US leagues, and college players. Here are the ones I think actually have an NHL future in order:

1. C Lukas Reichel - Still just 19 and playing great in Rockford. There is zero need to rush him so I think keeping his status this year is important. Next season at 20 we should ease him in 25-30games split time and then 23-24 finally bring him on fully at 21.
2. G Drew Commesso - The Hawks do NOT have a #2 prospect in tow. I have Commesso here because that’s how important his development is. He should take a lot of time to mature too… 1 more year at Boston and then at least 1.5 years in the A before a trial and then by 23 get a full shot at the big club.
3. D Wyatt Kaiser - Smooth 2 way defender that just keeps improving at Min-Dul. I really like his game and see him as someone that has a real shot at the NHL top4 ceiling
4. D Taige Harding - likely higher than most… but wow this big kid is better than i thought. Could be a real project that with the right path, could be a steal.
5. D Ian Mitchell - A forgotten player, but he has rebounded to have an all-star AHL level season. He can move the puck and is good at blue line to blue line passing. Should get a real shot at bottom pairing next season.
6. LW Colton Dach - Displays that good instinct in close. I know he needs a lot of work in other areas, but from a hockey sense perspective he has the tools needed to make it to the NHL.
7. D Alex Vlasic - Big and composed sound tactic D man. Should get lots of opportunities over next 3 seasons.
8. G Arvid Soderblom - 22 and coming off a great season in the A. He will get every opportunity for the Hawks over the next 2-3 years.
9. C Landon Slaggert - maybe a little forgotten as Rolston has gotten a lot of points this year for the Irish… however, Slaggert does a lot right while on the ice and I think he presents a consistent compete intensity for a club.
10. D Nolan Allen - a surprise pick last draft and likely about 50 picks too high however I think he is in line to be a solid 4-5 dman. He has great size and showed he wasn’t scared to play against true competition.

My take: if this isn’t the worst prospect core in the league it has to be bottom 5. Reichel is really the only blue chip prospect we have. I like Kaiser a lot and honestly almost all of our true nhl caliber guys are on D, but he isn’t a sure thing yet either. The next 3 drafts in the top 2 rounds will determine our next 10 seasons.

Upcoming Drafts:

2022: Weaker up top than 2023 for sure, Shane Wright will go #1 and then there are about 5-7 guys that could go anywhere 2-8. Logan Cooley and Joakim Kemmel present the most potential at #2. Reminder Hawks only get the pick if it’s 1 or 2. If they do get 1 or 2 then they do not get 2023.

2023: If they get a Wright / Cooley then we will only have TBL first here. Connor Bedard may be a Sebastian Aho - Connor McDavid in between franchise player at #1 but the true power of 2023 is that it may have 3-4 of these guys. The Steele have Adam Fantilli and then there is the Russian Matvei Michkov. There are also another 5 at a high level. Overall I’d say that 1 of a Wright-Cooley-Bedard-Fantilli-Michkov will be a Hawk. I’d put those odds at 40-50%.

Either way on the next 2 drafts Davidson should be stockpiling forwards with skill AND compete as their main traits. He also needs to invest on some goalie projects. Our D core for prospects looks to be solid but with no top pair guys.

Summary: Slowly but surely the Hawks need to shed our aging players and longer contracts any way they can. Investment into compete and skill traits is a must. Goalie quantity and quality should be addressed asap. I think we have 2 seasons to figure out our young players that are 20-23 now. After that, we must move on. The future of the Hawks will come down to 1 simple truth: will Davidson hit on his picks over the 22-24 drafts. That’s it.

[GRADEN]

Well first game without those 3 traded players and Raddysh netted another goal and Lankanen played great for his second straight QS.

Again we actually want to win because we don’t receive the pick…. The winning will help us into next season.

Strome also…. Wow 9g in 9gms. That line is so skilled, just doesn’t play D … so what to do ya know

[GRADEN]

Was just listening Shane Wright interview - very intelligent person. Seems like he is right in line with being a year 1 or by year 2 top line 2way center….

A guy that is dependable in all situations in that 20-25g and 38-47a +15-20 and 54-57%FO career. Those things all amazing so you have to think is #1 (maybe have a 6-7% chance at best) this year better to get than a say a 40% chance at top 3 next year???

Hard to pick

Look AZC will be there in top 4 next season… so take 1 spot out already

[GRADEN]

They just called up Reichel again

In the middle of a desperate ice hogs playoff push and he is a pt per game player….. sigh here we go again